More mean-ingless with the spread at that point.

If the spread was anomalously large at that point I would agree but from a statistical point of view the mean in this case is as valid as it ever is at that point http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-22-1-180.png?12 

The pattern in the GFS and ECM to that point is quite clear, beyond then much less so. You could argue that every mean at 180hrs is of limited use. In this case it is no more or less use than normal. What will be more interesting will be to see if the cold blip is still there in a few days time and if the mobile pattern return shortly afterwards as looks probable.

Yes .so it doesn't sink and becomes a toppler. But could do eventually. But we need a colder snap lasting longer than a day...!

Apologies, yes at T180 probably reasonable. I was looking at immediately after where the spread was quickly very large .

18z ens:

A lot of scatter but the OP run has flipped to milder.

WELL! - All eyes on tomorrows ECMWF and see if this flips?

Hmm. Not great are they. Especially from point of view of OP and Control but a lot of spread after the 5th.

ECM op is consistent for now and still goes for the toppler.

NCEP had supercomputer problems yesterday (that's true not speculation) but I doubt those would have impacted the actual output shown by the GFS. Although I suppose there could have been problems with data feeds which did.

What happened to the BBC forecast of last night confidently showing strong NE-ly by the weekend?

GFS has gone all westerly again with troughs in the flow bringing in colder NWly around Sat 1st, Tue 4th Mon 10th, the last is the deepest and all are off N Scotland; but a brief respite anticyclone  1045mb Brittany on Wed 5th Feb

ECM similar until Wed 5th Feb when the HP stands off in the Atlantic allowing a day or two of northerlies (as it did yesterday) and then maintains the HP over the UK to end of run on Sat 8th Feb

GEFS temp a lot of up and down around the seasonal normal, swings more amplified in the south. Rainfall on and off throughout run. 

If that is the case I would question the presenter and the chief forecaster. Based on the available data it could have been flagged up as a possibility but nothing more. 

Ah, I see we're back to pessimism today 

Hate to go OT but I was reading what DEW Posted and Brian's reply even the BBC were talking about a northerly last night in the week ahead forecast as Dew alluded to:

Louise Lear saying at 03:00 in video as we head towards end of next week we will see "something seasonal and something we have not yet had this winter - winds coming in from the north -east which will make it very chilly especially along the exposed eastern coasts."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/51288767

Keep in mind we have not seen any northerly or north westerly let alone east or north easterly this winter and moreso this colder snap we had for 1-2 days yesterday and Monday was coming off a south westerly or westerly wind! Bizarre eh?

Looking at temps in the strat - it shows a further cooling post +192 NOT warming.

It's just the never - ending story'.

All that cold air is modelled to spawn some serious Atlantic lows on the latest GFS run. The very last frame shows the UK about to be blown into the Baltic. 

Weren't the winters of 1976, 1989 & 1995 similar to this in synopsis? (not saying it will be a hot summer, but be interested to see if there's a similar pattern).

This winter is in a league of its own....goodness what will happen in the Spring or Summer.

I stand by what I posted in late December - once this kind of PV and zonal train leaves the weather station, it remains the weather express throughout what should be a normal winter. The zonal train keeps going until March when a false, late winter can suddenly appear, putting all the budding plants and prematurely nesting birds into jeopardy. A typically rotten winter to be quickly consigned to the massive rubbish bin of winter fails.

Let's hope 2020-21 redeems what passes for the UK winter - I want to see a properly cold and snowy January in 2021.

Or December 2020? - We haven't had a colder than average December/Christmas since 2010.

Big increase in precipitation spikes comparing yesterday's GFS ensembles as we head further into Feb:

Latest 06z Run - a trend to wetter and milder!!