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Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 17:54:22



Doctormog I think, he is usually very measured in any comment and won't be diving in here to put anyone right.


Originally Posted by: four 


Thanks Four, and a thank you to Q too for his graphical stuff. Interesting. Maybe as things develop DrM will do a bit of interpretation for us. Best not to jump to any conclusions. I'm going to give it a couple of days...


I recall a 'flu season years ago when I remarked to a local Dr I had not had 'flu - to which he replied "How do you know that?" The problem may well be wider that we can see just now, as Ben's pointed out.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
29 January 2020 19:08:27

https://t.co/Hr0XIfK6M1?amp=1


Mortality rate in Wuhan hospital is 11%


You will recall my own estimate was 10%.


It should be noted though that many of those in this small sample did have underlying health issues.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
29 January 2020 19:20:14

One thing that does seem clear is that patients do respond well to treatment even if the treatment is only for the symptons which is obviously good news. The severe:mortality rate seems very high. So one source of concern is that if it becomes an epidemic in the UK is our health system being able to cope which I am skeptical of.


So the UK needs to be putting emergency contingency plans into practice to temporarily raise the capacity of the NHS to deal with the problem if necessary.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
29 January 2020 19:25:02


One thing that does seem clear is that patients do respond well to treatment even if the treatment is only for the symptons which is obviously good news. The severe:mortality rate seems very high. So one source of concern is that if it becomes an epidemic in the UK is our health system being able to cope which I am skeptical of.


So the UK needs to be putting emergency contingency plans into practice to temporarily raise the capacity of the NHS to deal with the problem if necessary.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What are the "treatments"? Staying hydrated and anti-viral drugs? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
29 January 2020 19:35:33

Just a thought - is anyone on here qualified in a school of medicine other than Google and a Scout First Aid badge? There are a number of posts making me think "How do you know that's right?" and there's no link to check on authenticity. By all means share or discuss sourced reliable information - but as the song goes - "It ain't necessarily so." A plea for common sense and caution. R.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



Roger Parsons
29 January 2020 19:42:47


 



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Great - thanks DrM. I'll look out for your thoughts on the progress of the outbreak when a bit more is known.


I'm just an ancient zoologist with some animal heath background - mainly tropical.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
29 January 2020 20:08:10


 


What are the "treatments"? Staying hydrated and anti-viral drugs? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Most common treatements in that sample were Oxygen, Antibiotics, Antivirals and Immunoglobuin.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 January 2020 00:56:39

Japenese evacuation flight had positive tests.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 January 2020 02:14:01

Don't know how reliable this source is, but the stuff being said here is credible.


https://twitter.com/beeylat/status/1222684624716881925


The papers I've read on SARS suggest the virus becomes easily inactivated at high temps. This seems to confirm it and suggest that it's actually even more vulnerabe to heat than SARS.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
30 January 2020 03:08:17
Latest news update

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51305526 

First case in Tibet.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 January 2020 03:12:26
Meanwhile, a worrying effect of a toxic mixture of latent racial prejudice, ignorance and fear:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51294305?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story 

It makes me wonder just how little it would take for our veneer of polite civilisation to come away in the event of a real scare/panic.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
30 January 2020 05:31:42
The WHO organisation are meeting today and their narrative suggests they may upgrade this to an international emergency.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
30 January 2020 08:23:54

According to the map on Wikipedia India may have had its first case.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak


MM feared this could come to pass. Its not yet listed on their table of affected countries though, so will need to verify further.


I have been to India and generally hygiene is poor. 


EDIT: I have just checked again and this has now been confirmed.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Roger Parsons
30 January 2020 08:39:51

Meanwhile, a worrying effect of a toxic mixture of latent racial prejudice, ignorance and fear:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51294305?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story

It makes me wonder just how little it would take for our veneer of polite civilisation to come away in the event of a real scare/panic.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Crosses painted on doors and cries of "bring out your dead" come to mind, Gandalf. But against that you can sent the courage and humanity of the medical teams which dealt with Ebola. We have tackled Polio and Smallpox and many other serious diseases, so there is no reason to think we won't get on top of this one.


Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. That's social media for you.


R.


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Justin W
30 January 2020 08:54:53

Perhaps my No Deal stockpile will come in handy after all 


I have now taken delivery of a large supply of medical masks which are now becoming difficult to source.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
30 January 2020 09:05:59


Perhaps my No Deal stockpile will come in handy after all 


I have now taken delivery of a large supply of medical masks which are now becoming difficult to source.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Will you be shooting rabid Brexiters?


Justin W
30 January 2020 09:24:21


 


Will you be shooting rabid Brexiters?



Originally Posted by: xioni2 



No - they have promised to change all our lives for the better with their Brexit.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Arcus
30 January 2020 09:45:28

Interesting (if slightly disturbing) tool developed by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:


https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/traveller_screening/


"We find that airport screening for initial symptoms, via thermal scanners or similar, on either exit or entry is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers in order to avoid entry of infected travellers and therefore the potential for seeding of local transmission."


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Roger Parsons
30 January 2020 10:08:47


Interesting (if slightly disturbing) tool developed by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:


https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/traveller_screening/


"We find that airport screening for initial symptoms, via thermal scanners or similar, on either exit or entry is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers in order to avoid entry of infected travellers and therefore the potential for seeding of local transmission."


Originally Posted by: Arcus 



Excellent, Ben. I shall have a play with that and see what I can make of it. Well spotted.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
30 January 2020 10:25:40


Can't possibly imagine who you're thinking of!


 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Neither can I, SS!



I am still suffering from this XxXxXxxX cold which is driving me and the wife mental.


Quite enough for me - don't want a dose of "Metal Rat 'Flu". [Reaches for guitar and and plays a 12-bar blues intro....]


I was interested to read somewhere that current therapies for countering this new corona virus include "oxygen and raised temperature".


After my cardiac procedure last year I got a chest infection in ICU and eventually came round to find myself breathing hot stuff through my oxygen mask. Didn't like it much - it was surprisingly hot. I wonder if that's what they were talking about? I must ask DrM. I was not very communicative at the time and did not remember to ask the team about it.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Heavy Weather 2013
30 January 2020 10:31:08

Russia has closed its Border with China


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
30 January 2020 10:38:21

Phillipines case confirmed 9 days after she arrived.


That's quite worrying.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
30 January 2020 11:38:00


Phillipines case confirmed 9 days after she arrived.


That's quite worrying.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


This is what bothers me about countries outside China. They have a few confirmed cases which have been isolated, but since the incubation period is up to two weeks without obvious symptoms necessarily being present during that period and since we know asymptomatic carriers can pass on the infection (witness the German confirmed cases), it is surely probable that many people have been infected in third countries who have not yet presented to the authorities and who themselves are infecting others.


 


New world order coming.
Justin W
30 January 2020 11:53:45

Russia has closed its border with China.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Arcus
30 January 2020 12:21:32

York hotel in lockdown after Chinese national taken ill last night.


https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/18198268.chinese-national-taken-hospital-taken-ill-york-hotel/


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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