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CreweCold
31 January 2020 15:11:12


 


I am not sneering at all,  I just found some posts from Saint and Brian to be hilarious. I have lost someone very close to me from flu, so I know what can happen. Please be careful before accusing people like this.


HeavyWeather implied that he has the HIV virus, so I completely understand if he is particularly worried about this and I can only sympathise. I cannot do the same though for Quantum's hysteria (stopping all social interactions, claiming that the mortality rate is at least 10%, stressing out Joe etc.)  and I'll mock him  for this.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


My apologies.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
The Beast from the East
31 January 2020 15:15:27


Well on the plus side I was outside the hotel on the 24th.


Tourists didn't arrive until the 27th.


So no possibility I could have caught it at that gathering from them.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm so pleased for you


Why don't you come down to London for the Farage party and tell them you have just come back from China. I wonder how long it will take for the mob to lynch you


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
xioni2
31 January 2020 15:15:33


I'm sorry but you and others were unnecessarily stressing people out over a no deal brexit.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Is your memory failing you again or is that first symptom of the virus affecting your brain? I was in favour of a no deal outcome and I consistently thought and argued here that it was an extremely unlikely event. I even said that its impacts were unpredictable.


 

Gandalf The White
31 January 2020 15:17:11


 


I think I had flu sometime last year.


My temperature was up to 100 and I developed a full body rash. Spent most of it asleep.


 


In my first year of undegrad I also had the flu, although that occasion was far worse as I presented with all the symptons of meningitus (it wasn't meningitus).


The only other time I remember having a severe fever was when I got food poisoning in my 2nd year of undergrad (from a holiday to Iceland). I suddenly developed a raging fever that lasted for about 20 minutes, and then I felt alot better.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Ouch!


My son got food poisoning a couple of years ago. He went from absolutely fine to being in an ambulance and on to A&E inside an hour.  On a saline drip for several hours before discharged.  It was a scary few hours.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
31 January 2020 15:18:21


 My apologies.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


 No worries, it's the very nature of an online forum. 

Bugglesgate
31 January 2020 15:19:02


Saw 5 people with protective masks on in Manc city centre this lunchtime.


All of them Chinese-looking.


The people, not the masks.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The son of a work colleague  has a company making these masks - it has been a  spectacularly good time for him.  First the Californian fires, then the Aus fires and now this.  He can't keep up with demand !


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:20:03


 


Ouch!


My son got food poisoning a couple of years ago. He went from absolutely fine to being in an ambulance and on to A&E inside an hour.  On a saline drip for several hours before discharged.  It was a scary few hours.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yeh food poisoning is one of those things that burns quickly but also very brightly. Very unpleasant indeed.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:21:41


 


Is your memory failing you again or is that first symptom of the virus affecting your brain? I was in favour of a no deal outcome and I consistently thought and argued here that it was an extremely unlikely event. I even said that its impacts were unpredictable.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


It's hard to remember exactly who said what, but there was alot of fearmongering going on over a no deal brexit. And fine, it probably wasn't you that did that, but it was alot worse than anything I've said in this thread.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
31 January 2020 15:23:09

Those worrying, stressing and taking extreme measures would be advised to read this:


https://www.health24.com/Medical/Flu/News/can-stress-cause-colds-and-flu-20170615


(There are plenty of other sources discussing the same thing and it is evidence based)  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:26:17


Those worrying, stressing and taking extreme measures would be advised to read this:


https://www.health24.com/Medical/Flu/News/can-stress-cause-colds-and-flu-20170615


(There are plenty of other sources discussing the same thing and it is evidence based)  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I genuinely appologise if I have stressed anyone out. That is not my intention at all, if anyone wants to take some precautious my hope is they will feel less stressed for doing so.


Likewise I do not want people to panic.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
31 January 2020 15:27:30


Those worrying, stressing and taking extreme measures would be advised to read this:


https://www.health24.com/Medical/Flu/News/can-stress-cause-colds-and-flu-20170615


(There are plenty of other sources discussing the same thing and it is evidence based)  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's an excellent point and why we should always keep things in perspective. Stay informed, take reasonable precautions if necessary, but do not become obsessed or hysterical about it. 

Brian Gaze
31 January 2020 15:31:45


 


I genuinely appologise if I have stressed anyone out. That is not my intention at all, if anyone wants to take some precautious my hope is they will feel less stressed for doing so.


Likewise I do not want people to panic.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It could be your writing style or the real possibility that you are just posting for a laugh, but if you are genuine and posting in good faith you come across as being panicked and stressed. I have zilch medical expertise (so aren't going to authoritatively proclaim) but perhaps chilling out a tad would strengthen your immune system and reduce the chance of being infected with the new virus or other ones. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:38:03


 


It could be your writing style or the real possibility that you are just posting for a laugh, but if you are genuine and posting in good faith you come across as being panicked and stressed. I have zilch medical expertise (so aren't going to authoritatively proclaim) but perhaps chilling out a tad would strengthen your immune system and reduce the chance of being infected with the new virus or other ones. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It comes down to this.


There is a low risk this could turn out to be really really bad on a global scale. It isn't likely, but if this was on one of those risk matricies it would be 'Amber level' low but severe. Serious global pandemics do occasionally happen, and it is a matter of when not if. And in the likely event that this does blow over there is still every possibility something really bad could happen again in 10 years time.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:41:08

Also I should point out that I am not just posting everything from a pesimsstic perspective on this.


I have made both positive and negitive posts. I did the same on Iran, despite everyone being singularly pesimistic there.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:42:12


Very early days but there is some definite divergence from the exponential appearing in the most recent data.


So fitting an exponential function on the cases up until around the 27th you would expect there to be about 15400 confirmed cases by the 30th. There were only 9042.


 


In fact the increase in total cases from the 29th to the 30th was actually less than from the 28th to the 29th (1331 compared to 1737)


 


Keeping in mind these figures do not represent the true spread of the illness, it is at least something positive that we may no longer be seeing exponential growth. But again as I say, it's extremely early days.


 


The same is true of the deaths. Using data prior to the 27th you would have expected about 450 deaths by the end of the 30th. There were only 213.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Example ^^


No one comments on the optimistic posts though.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2020 15:42:34

Sweden has its first confirmed case.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2020 15:44:31


 


 


Example ^^


No one comments on the optimistic posts though.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


The numbers from China almost certainly bollox now though. No way that can test everyone or everyone who has died. 


 


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 15:49:40


 


I am not sneering at all,  I just found some posts from Saint and Brian to be hilarious. I have lost someone very close to me from flu, so I know what can happen. Please be careful before accusing people like this.


HeavyWeather implied that he has the HIV virus, so I completely understand if he is particularly worried about this and I can only sympathise. I cannot do the same though for Quantum's hysteria (stopping all social interactions, claiming that the mortality rate is at least 10%, stressing out Joe etc.)  and I'll mock him  for this.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Thank you for your understanding and sorry for snapping

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:50:21


 


 


The numbers from China almost certainly bollox now though. No way that can test everyone or everyone who has died. 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes I agree however they don't need to be accurate to model the behaviour


So let's say the actual number of cases looks something like this:   A = aexp(bt) where t is time, and a,b are constants.


Then let's say the confirmed number of cases is C =Eaexp(bt) with an error function E that relates A to C


If E is just a constant (let's say only 10% of cases are detected) then it doesn't affect the model at all. Both C and A will still show exponential behaviour with the same b factor (which is linked to R0)


even if E is a polynomial function it doesn't matter too much. It only becomes a problem if E starts to vary exponentially too. It is possible that may be the case if the chinese system has become completely overrun and the ability to record cases has non linearly deterioated.


I'm making here the assumption that that is not yet the case.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Essan
31 January 2020 15:54:45


I have. Came down with it on a Monday evening in the pub and it came on me quickly - went from feeling pretty much OK to sat shivering in coat, hat, gloves & scarf trying to laugh it off in about 30 mins. Admitted defeat and drove home (about 1.5 miles away). By the time I was driving up the road before mine, I was jibbering to myself, and wondering why I was jibbering to myself. Spent about 60 hours non-stop hallucinating, temperature peaking at 103, on-call doctor out and everything. Knocked me for six. But I still marvel at the 60 hour hallucination 


 


It's flu.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




The only time I had 'flu this century I hallucinated there were deep snow drifts in the garden ......

It was March 2018.

Good way to lose weight though   

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:55:15

It is worth pointing out that the same behaviour is observed in the deaths and the unconfirmed cases too, implying there may be a robustness to the results.


There are still a million and one caveats, but its something that people can be optimistic about if they want to.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
31 January 2020 15:56:41





The only time I had 'flu this century I hallucinated there were deep snow drifts in the garden ......

It was March 2018.

Good way to lose weight though   


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I've never hallucinated due to the flu.


I've had this though (several times too).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_paralysis


Although while most people get hallucinations with it, I haven't had it there either.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Roger Parsons
31 January 2020 15:59:38
It is great that folks are so interested and engaged, applying insight and knowledge to an unusual and concerning epidemic. I am sincere about that. I am also nervous about the derivative and speculative commentary we have been achieving in our discussion. Few of us are medically qualified. Even the best of media coverage from experienced and specialist reporters may prove to be misleading. I'd encourage mentioning or giving links to sources where appropriate and trying to avoid "pure intellect unencumbered by factual knowledge." Even if one is right about something at this stage, that is rather equivalent to someone firing a shot into a crowd and shouting "Gotcha!" A phrase from a Welsh school punishment book comes to mind: "Caned for urinating competitively for altitude."
Roger
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Brian Gaze
31 January 2020 15:59:56


 


That's an excellent point and why we should always keep things in perspective. Stay informed, take reasonable precautions if necessary, but do not become obsessed or hysterical about it. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Indeed. Some of them are things everyone should be doing 365 days per year. Washing hands*, eating well and getting regular sleep are examples. 


*it amazes me how many men don't wash hands after having a pee in the pub

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
31 January 2020 16:05:52


*it amazes me how many men don't wash hands after having a pee in the pub


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Even worse, there are plenty of people (mostly men) who don't wash their hands after taking a dump.

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