To spread a bit of cheer on this dank, drizzly Brexity evening, the CFS is trying it’s hardest to deliver the goods - a real deal of an easterly late Feb:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10

The GFS ensemble snow rows building nicely for a valentine snow opportunity up here in the North West (capital of send us your potentially ill Coronavirus imports!)

Martin

Look how positive the AO is going!? - almost off the scale, all thanks to colder strat temps.

Now looks like a blend of what ECM and GFS were showing a couple of days ago. More often than not is the case.  

oh ho Ho, that is a sight for sore eyes, what a classic of 1991 standard or better, yes that'll warm the cockles without resorting to the Highland Park and Drambui, oh yes - do very nicely....

of course it's deep into FI to the power 2-3, and then some, but actually, take a second look at the GFS, theirs a high building over the North Atlantic at the end of the run, FI to the power 1; and a string of lows that once past the. U.K. Look ripe to send us a dose of artic air, so it's  of such a massive leap to suggest this scenario, and at would indeed balance things out as much a soft penalty after a red card for the other team.

And a serious amount of snow further west on that chart (but naturally just rain here!) and only 11 days out too. 

very stormy outlook loads of potential for some fun weather!

Do we have a chart for Brexit... 

Anticyclonic gloom?

Or Opportjunity knocks?

who the hell really knows...

its like predicting the jet... 

I would take the public vote on who wants to be a millionaire on that one,

ill cintent myself with the dreams of the CFS really long range - may be it will happen...hope so....

I prefer to call it the Merkelslug

If you didn't look at it last night (and it was certainly worth having a drool over) , forget it. This morning it's back to a raging Atlantic

Anyway, that was T+600 -back to the here and now; and it's just the same as yesterday; westerlies, ridge of HP midweek, really stormy Mon 10th - Wed 12th (945mb Rockall on Tue) and gales continuing through to the following weekend. Cold enough for a big dump of snow on the Scottish mountains above maybe 500m and southern Norway looks as if mountains there are due for 2 to 3m  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

ECM starts the stormy sequence a bit earlier (940 mb Shetland Sun 9th) and has more of a long fetch NWly with a 'master' depression than the localised LPs of GFS.

GEFS temps below normal around the 4th, above normal around the 7th, and dry; then the rain sets in to end of run on Mon 17th with temps up and down on any given run but overall averaging near normal (Scotland a fraction cooler and rain there noticeably concentrated in the W). Postage stamp charts out to T+384 cooler than they have been (more greens than yellows) but nothing seriously cold (blues)

good summary DEW,

msrobins' link was certainly a druel fest last night - but what an illusionist it turned out to be looking at this mornings boredom special...

yes - some action weather certainly for the next 10 - but not a whisper of a zonal interrupt.....even the tea leaves have dried up...

need a change in the QBO now....

And a Magician.

Does anyone know when this is due to take place? I think I recall someone saying pre-Christmas that this was due to happen at the end of the winter/start of the spring, but my memory could be inaccurate.

On the point in bold, December 2010 IMO more than proved on its own that we can still get long lasting spells of notable or even exceptional cold in this country which are comparable with those from pre-late 1980s. And that was only a year after a winter which saw the coldest December (2009) in Scotland for almost 30 years.

The first winter I spent as a member of this forum was 2006/07, which I clearly recall was just as bad for coldies as this one has been. I am willing to bet my mortgage that back at that time, virtually no-one on this forum or in the wider public really thought that at the turn of the decade, we would have two winters back-to-back which saw month-long spells of severe cold which I reckon some of us thought were pretty well consigned to the history books.

I think the pattern will continue with a background of mostly mild winters but still with the "freak" extreme cold blips every 20-30 years although I suspect even their severity will be less as with 2009-2010. What I miss down here is having so many winters with not even a few light falls or snow showers around in the air from time to time.