You appear to have misunderstood.

Emissions may have fallen but CO2 in the atmosphere is still increasing; those are two fundamentally different points. We are about to pass 420ppm, from a base of 280 pre-Industrial Revolution: a level not see for several hundred thousand years.

Our emissions are declining partly because we have shifted a chunk of manufacturing out of the UK.  We have made progress with renewable sources for electricity generation but that's pretty much it.

The air is certainly not cleaner in city centres.

But it is clear from the  records that temperatures are rising so synoptic patterns need to be that much more favourable, to compensate for the higher temperatures. Inevitably the bar will continue to be raised and the chance of lowland snow in the south will continue to diminish.

The bullseye is getting smaller. 

Having said that Baghdad, Iran...had a covering of snow. So why are they getting snow then...?🤔

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/pictures-rare-snowfall-carpets-iraq-200211083835781.html

EPA figures may be for USA only? 

These sources show a slowing down but not a decrease for CO2 - other pollutants may have gone down- and the CO2 increase referred to in the first link ascribes this to China

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china

https://earthsky.org/earth/atmospheric-co2-record-high-may-2019

And having said that, this is the model output thread, not a climate change one, and any more posts straying away from the title towards climate change will get deleted plus the current ones for good measure

The telling time for me will be when the AMO switches from its current positive phase to a negative one, which I believe from what I have read elsewhere on the internet, it is predicted to do within the next decade or so. There is no doubt there has been an uptick in warming around the world (many new warm temperature records here in the UK have been set since the end start of the new century, for example) since the current positive phase began in the mid-late 1990s so we shall see what happens once it goes negative again.

Because they are not sitting on the edge of an increasingly warm bath (aka The Atlantic Ocean).

The extent of the effect of the AMO is still unclear and, at best, offers only a possible temporary interruption to the warming trend, which was discernible before 1995.

Down this way, has there ever been a decade of winters as brilliant as the one just gone? So many episodes of deep, lasting snow: Jan 2010, the all-time record breaker of Dec 2010, then a gap (this is the balmy West Country, after all) until, boom! 1 March 2018, 19 March 2018 and 1 Feb 2019. 

Yes, they were all rubbish in model-output land, where everyone is fixated on the breakdown at day 10. But, speaking as a sledge-owner, I've been having more fun and spills now I'm in my fifties than I ever had as a kid.

Might get some this year too. There's some amplification finally showing at the end of tonight's ECM. Getting to the time of year where the polar vortex naturally breaks up, I guess:

I’m 32 so the 2010s were snowier than the two other decades I have any memories of (90s and 00s), but that’s not really saying much.

On the other hand, no winter in the 90s and 00s were as snowless as 2013/14, or 2018/19, or indeed 2019/2020. Even in a very poor winter you could normally guarantee some accumulation at some point, but not this winter or last. And this is coming from one of England’s snowier areas.

I'm afraid you lost it on me when you said "so called experts". A genuine expert is an expert. At least their views are more likely to be meaningful than any old Joe. I mean you wouldn't prefer a bloke down the pub to do your brain surgery than a "so called suegeon" surely?

In some parts of the South, yes, but just the one, two at a stretch here . If you lived in Essex and you were 10 years old you would probably never had been sledging. There is not a 70 year old i know that won't tell you we get far, far less snow than we used to. But yes, it is certainly still possible, just more unlikely.

Exactly !

Because they are not a maritime climate and have always had more winter snow than here.

I think you may have a slight point for the mid SW especially East Wales, Shropshire, Gloucestershire and those areas. There have been a number of deep falls but there were none in East Anglia of any note in that decade. Even 2010 was not much for deep snow. The beast was cold for a week or so but again no real depth here. In the past, especially if you look at climate and Geography books of the 60's and 70's you will see that places in  the SW were generally characterised  as mild and wet and East Anglia as more continental and colder with places like Norwich being high up on the snow cities. Not any more.

I know I bang on about this ad nauseam but it is impossible to understand how pathetic it has been unless you bother to read the work of Bonacina and see the talk of "Jan, severe spell, 11-14th Jan., general heavy snow in east. 18ins Southend, 20ins Cornwall. Severe drifting in parts of SE, 25ft in places." 25ft drifts and that wasn't 62-63 when of course there were massive drifts on Dartmoor and the south. 1977 -87 was the snowiest spell of snowy winters in my lifetime although of course none compared with 62-3. It is just the difference in the sheer depth of transient snowfalls in average years back then. Look at the number of "18 inches in Southend" type comments crop up around the Country pre 1990. Plus the number of widespread and general snow Countrywide reports. it's always localised in recent years.

The Jetstream won't leave us alone and produces 200+mph streaks to coincide with each of the next two weekends. No prospect of let-up until the beginning of March.

GFS has westerly zonal stuff with LP centres in the flow 24th and 27th Feb and no doubt minor troughs coming along from time to time e.g. fAX on Thu 20th; a proper centre of 1035Mb HP as a tease on Wed 4th. ECM has a deeper LP on Tue 23rd Feb crossing N England.

GEFS temps up and down and not much consistency especially after 25th Feb but mean near normal. If anything cool at first and mild for a while until the 25th but generally cooler further N with decent snow row figures for Scotland. -dryish in the S, wetter in the NW cf http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

That's a lot of rain/snow for the western highlands. Much drier in the south and east.

No real respite in the unsettled weather anytime soon is being suggested by the models this morning.

Brian has mentioned on a number of occasions in this thread about the chances of this winter falling into the top 10 mildest on record in this country. Given how much rain there has been, especially in the past week or so, I reckon there must now be as good a chance of it becoming one of the top 10 wettest on record, at least for some parts of the country.

Think it was you Brian that made the observation that direct Arctic northerlies don't even deliver for us down here nowadays.

The atmosphere remains too mobile. Not even a whiff of a Scandi high and any suggestion of one this winter has only lasted a day in the outer reaches of FI.

'Funny' how when I joined this forum some time back I would have leapt at the chance of sledging. Now as I near my sixties that same prospect does not have the same reaction. After all these years of chasing holy grails, time is catching up. I'd be more likely to break a hip nowadays, silly old fool!

I think we've all had enough of experts.

Very true.

Has to be a lot to do with the dominance of Winter high pressure systems over the Azores and Europe for the last decade. Atlantic lows are continually deflected in a NE trajectory over the UK so no chance of following arctic blasts. There has also been a scarcity of mid Atlantic ridges over the last decade and this Winter they have been non-existant.

I think you may be able to add "2019-20- Another year without a winter" and "February 2020- Floodfest Horror" to your list of recollections in your signature, Jacko.