I saw this week as a week of opportunity to drastically slow the spread, HMG has clearly taken the route of a short hard hit. The one thing not being taken into consideration is the chance of mutation, as we have already seen, we basically now now have 2 strains going around.

It looks at present that it is the weaker version prevalent in the UK, with the stronger version in Italy. But if this virus has already mutated once within a 3 month period, surely it could mutate again. The only way to cut the chance of mutation is to cut the chance of transmission and this is what I feel we have now missed.

Just watch the numbers this week climb rapidly, unless HMG goes down the route of the US of if you don't test them they can't have it.

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They've taken the route of killing more people:

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What do people think about corona virus themed Easter eggs? This is for real:

 

A baker in France has created coronavirus-themed Easter eggs, hoping to bring positivity to people as Covid-19 hits the country pic.twitter.com/wJXkqwX23G

— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 9, 2020

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Breaking: England reports 46 new cases of Coronavirus to 9am today. This is 19 less than yesterday to the same time.

Excellent news...

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That's disgusting!! I hate dark chocolate.

 

 

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This is a nice diagram but it is not Data, Nick. I'd want to see the source and a calculation and interpretation of the two curves and some indication of the "weight" of the evidence.  Anyone can knock up a graph.

Roger

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And no doubt went toward todays decision from HMG, but how large an increase in those tested, and a good stat is the number of tests against positive on any given day. So for example of those tested on Saturday, how many were positive. Remember a positive number will be small if we tested fewer people.

I am worried as my wife is asthmatic and is vulnerable to this.

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There is less testing Sunday for Monday because many surgeries and minor units are closed. The figures will be up again tomorrow.

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UK figures

• 24,960 people tested


• 24,641 negative


• 319 positive


• 3 deaths

New cases in the 24 hours to 9am for England have fallen by 19

It seems the amount of testing taking place is fluctuating as well

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Cases by region in England

• East of England | 24 (+1)


• London | 61 (+10)


• Midlands | 31 (+6)


• North East and Yorkshire | 22 (+4)


• North West | 35 (+4)


• South East | 43 (+2)


• South West | 38  (+3)

To be determined | 24 (+4)

What?

It's a graph that's been doing the rounds, where the data it is based on is available somewhere. But surely it's pretty uncontroversial - it just presents in a clear visual format something that is well-known, utterly logical, and stands to reason.

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And yet most of the UK cases originated in Italy

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Since I last posted:

1) UK government does nothing of note
2) Friend emails me to say he's getting sent to Poland to work for 2 days this week. Next week he and his wife are going to Greece (work related too) and can I give them lift to Heathrow

The disconnect between this thread and what is happening is massive. Which is correct? Are people here succumbing to collective hysteria or behaving rationally?

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Indeed, which clearly shows the mutation has occurred in Italy, post transmission to the UK. This could be genetic differences or just plain luck. What we need is broken down data on a daily basis. 

 

The government are being very clever just releasing a running total and making people extrapolate the granular information themselves as most won't bother.

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The government I fear are going to get this wrong. Boris, is starting to think he is invincible. I think he is making a mistake.

 

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Most recent data, by country taken from ECDC. I have added % of known deaths and ordered the list from highest to lowest in this regard:

Region	Places reporting cases	Confirmed cases	Deaths	% of Deaths
America	Argentina	12	1	8.33
Asia	Iraq	62	4	6.45
Europe	Italy	7375	366	4.96
Asia	China	80859	3122	3.86
America	United States of America	554	21	3.79
Oceania	Australia	80	3	3.75
Asia	Iran	6566	194	2.95
Europe	San Marino	37	1	2.70
Asia	Taiwan	45	1	2.22
Africa	Egypt	49	1	2.04
Asia	Thailand	50	1	2.00
Europe	France	1126	19	1.69
Asia	Japan	488	7	1.43
Europe	Netherlands	265	3	1.13
Europe	United Kingdom	273	3	1.10
Other	Cases on an international conveyance Japan	705	6	0.85
Europe	Spain	589	5	0.85
Asia	South Korea	7382	51	0.69
Europe	Switzerland	332	2	0.60
Asia	Singapore	150	0	0.00
Asia	Malaysia	99	0	0.00
Asia	Bahrain	79	0	0.00
Asia	Kuwait	64	0	0.00
Asia	United Arab Emirates	45	0	0.00
Asia	Israel	39	0	0.00
Asia	India	34	0	0.00
Asia	Lebanon	32	0	0.00
Asia	Vietnam	30	0	0.00
Asia	Palestine	19	0	0.00
Asia	Oman	16	0	0.00
Asia	Qatar	15	0	0.00
Asia	Saudi Arabia	11	0	0.00
Asia	Philippines	10	0	0.00
Asia	Pakistan	6	0	0.00
Asia	Indonesia	6	0	0.00
Asia	Afghanistan	4	0	0.00
Asia	Maldives	4	0	0.00
Asia	Bangladesh	3	0	0.00
Asia	Cambodia	2	0	0.00
Asia	Bhutan	1	0	0.00
Asia	Sri Lanka	1	0	0.00
Asia	Nepal	1	0	0.00
Asia	Jordan	1	0	0.00
Europe	Germany	902	0	0.00
Europe	Sweden	203	0	0.00
Europe	Belgium	200	0	0.00
Europe	Norway	169	0	0.00
Europe	Austria	102	0	0.00
Europe	Greece	73	0	0.00
Europe	Iceland	55	0	0.00
Europe	Denmark	38	0	0.00
Europe	Czech Republic	32	0	0.00
Europe	Portugal	30	0	0.00
Europe	Finland	30	0	0.00
Europe	Ireland	21	0	0.00
Europe	Slovenia	16	0	0.00
Europe	Romania	15	0	0.00
Europe	Georgia	13	0	0.00
Europe	Croatia	12	0	0.00
Europe	Poland	11	0	0.00
Europe	Estonia	10	0	0.00
Europe	Russia	10	0	0.00
Europe	Azerbaijan	9	0	0.00
Europe	Hungary	8	0	0.00
Europe	Belarus	6	0	0.00
Europe	Slovakia	5	0	0.00
Europe	Luxembourg	5	0	0.00
Europe	Bulgaria	4	0	0.00
Europe	Malta	3	0	0.00
Europe	North Macedonia	3	0	0.00
Europe	Latvia	3	0	0.00
Europe	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	0.00
Europe	Albania	2	0	0.00
Europe	Serbia	1	0	0.00
Europe	HOLY SEE VATICAN CITY STATE	1	0	0.00
Europe	Lithuania	1	0	0.00
Europe	Monaco	1	0	0.00
Europe	Ukraine	1	0	0.00
Europe	Moldova	1	0	0.00
Europe	Armenia	1	0	0.00
Europe	Liechtenstein	1	0	0.00
Europe	Andorra	1	0	0.00
America	Canada	62	0	0.00
America	Brazil	25	0	0.00
America	Ecuador	14	0	0.00
America	Chile	10	0	0.00
America	Mexico	7	0	0.00
America	Peru	7	0	0.00
America	Costa Rica	5	0	0.00
America	Dominican Republic	2	0	0.00
America	Paraguay	1	0	0.00
America	Colombia	1	0	0.00
Oceania	New Zealand	5	0	0.00
Africa	Algeria	20	0	0.00
Africa	Senegal	4	0	0.00
Africa	South Africa	3	0	0.00
Africa	Cameroon	2	0	0.00
Africa	Morocco	2	0	0.00
Africa	Togo	1	0	0.00
Africa	Nigeria	1	0	0.00
Africa	Tunisia	1	0	0.00
	Total	109695	3811	3.47

 

Globally, attributed deaths stands at 3.47%, with Iraq and Argentina seeing the highest percentages of all. 

 

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"Let's get Coronavirus done".

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Poland is fine at the moment - not many Poles take skiing holidays in Italy - more to the point, is whether Poland decides to block flights from the UK at some point.

Greece is more iffy - cases are ramping up there.

Personally, I would not fly anywhere at the moment - too much contact with others in this country and abroad which could lead to infection. I have a 92 year old mother whom I am visiting on Wednesday evening - I could not visit her with a clean conscience if I had been in contact with anybody who is infected.

 

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Thankfully the medical bloke looks like he knows what he's doing calm and collected and keeping us informed.

 

We're so far seeing fluctuations in case numbers with no daily doubling yet as per China and Italy etc with cases here well spread out and most traced.

This is from Sky:

'No rationale to close or cancel sporting events as things stand'

Governing bodies and sports broadcasters met with officials at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) to discuss potential contingency plans for sporting events in the event that coronavirus puts a stop to events.

A DCMS statement said: "Senior government officials chaired a constructive meeting of sports and broadcast partners, as part of sensible contingency planning in relation to Covid-19.

"This included a discussion of how staging sporting events behind closed doors could work in practice, should the situation change and become necessary.

"However based upon the current scientific advice from the Government's medical experts there is no rationale to close or cancel sporting events as things stand.

"We will remain in regular dialogue with sports governing bodies and broadcasters, ensuring they are in receipt of the most up to date guidance from the health authorities."

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It does make you wonder what our government scientists are saying that is so different to those in other parts of Europe.

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Surely even you must have ripped up your Tory Party membership party card. The government wants to ensure a few billionaires can extract more rent from the UK economy rather than putting the welfare of the sovereign nation state first. Rule Britannia!

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Perhaps they have evidence that containment is working. Nobody on this forum has tested positive yet (so I believe), so we don't know what the authorities do when someone does - are they good at tracing all contacts?

Once the spread becomes exponential, the chances of tracing all contacts and isolating them becomes virtually impossible - that is why Italy for example, has now had to resort to extreme measures.

 

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Indeed; impossible to form a judgement without the source being given - something you've mentioned a number of times here.

Here's an interesting one from an article on the Imperial College website: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195976/individual-response-covid-19-important-government-action/

 

 

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