theweatheroutlook

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xioni2
12 March 2020 15:23:14


Dipping in and out of this thread so apologies if this has already been reported but stock market once again in freefall. FTSE 100 down 9%, DOW down 8%. Nowhere left for interest rates now either.


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51829852


Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 


There is long way yet to zero (and I don't mean for the interest rates!)


Lionel Hutz
12 March 2020 15:23:53


 


With all the cases in sunny Spain it would seem that the weather is not playing its part 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, but it's early in the season yet so the fact that there have been many cases there doesn't disprove the theory(that warm weather will inhibit the spread of the virus). I would keep an eye of the progression of the virus in Australia though. If they have still kept a lid on cases by the end of the month, there may be something in it. If not, we're all doomed.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



xioni2
12 March 2020 15:25:04


I must admit I quite enjoy Gavin's one line updates


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


"Day 100: this is my last post as nobody is here any more"

Gavin D
12 March 2020 15:26:18


SW down 2? What's that about?


Originally Posted by: John p 


 


Maybe they included them as presumptive positive only for them to be negative, or they may have got the wrong area.


 


The NHS have already managed to tell a council of a case this week then they realised it was the wrong area!

Quantum
12 March 2020 15:28:18

Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.


Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
westv
12 March 2020 15:33:04


Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.


Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


"Only" 21k?

At least it will be mild!
Gavin D
12 March 2020 15:33:47
Nicola Sturgeon speaking before Boris. She's just confirmed we're moving from contain to delay phase
Arcus
12 March 2020 15:33:55


Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.


Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Total tested positives I presume you mean?


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
xioni2
12 March 2020 15:34:30

Nicola Sturgeon speaking before Boris. She's just confirmed we're moving from contain to delay phase

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


of Brexit?


 

Gavin D
12 March 2020 15:35:20
Via Nicola Sturgeon - New advice to be announced will say that if you have indicative symptoms you should self-isolate for 7 days
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 15:36:19


The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.


An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.


The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

This is precisely what some of us on here have been saying for weeks.  It explains why it’s spread so freely and why we’ve all been closing stable doors too late!  The virus has always been one step ahead of us, so by the time we’ve taken action, it’s already too late.  If the above is true, there is no way on earth any country could have stopped it spreading.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Roonie
12 March 2020 15:36:30

The reality of this is fairly simple....


We have reported infections (a known number) and actual infections (an unknown number).


Given the research now appearing, transmission happens very readily and the virus passes even before symptoms.


Because of this, the actual infection rate is likely to be a magnitude or 2 higher than the reported number so the horse has bolted and in fairness, there was very little that could have been done to prevent it. Closing borders would probably only have delayed the inevitable.


As an epidemic / pandemic was probably unavoidable, I think on balance the current response has been appropriate so whilst it is easy to be critical, we also need to be practical.



 


 


 

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
John p
12 March 2020 15:36:55


Have a very crude model trying to predict it. Not sure how accurate any of this will be.


Anyway It's predicting 176 new cases tommorow and a peak of 21k total cases in the UK.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


That's not bad then.  What's all the fuss about?

Camberley, Surrey
Gavin D
12 March 2020 15:37:11
Cobra has NOT decided to close schools or colleges. The decision is though under constant review.

All Foreign school trips WILL be cancelled.
Essan
12 March 2020 15:37:43


A leading public health expert has launched a devastating critique of the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, saying it is too little too late, lacks transparency and fails to mobilise the public.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 



They could start by telling us how many people are currently known to have the virus rather than issuing a totally meaningless figure of how many people have ever had it.

Imagine if they did the same for 'flu?   As of 9am this morning, 8,752,891,099 people have tested positive for 'flu.   There have been 77,768,287 deaths.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Quantum
12 March 2020 15:37:51


 


Total tested positives I presume you mean?


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Confirmed cases.


I expect that number to change alot as I get more data to input. Results from the model are quite sensitive to a bunch of different parameters.


 


Should add this is 'just for fun' (not really the best phrasing but can't think of any other). Don't base any descisions on the results of my model.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 March 2020 15:39:57


 


That's not bad then.  What's all the fuss about?


Originally Posted by: John p 


Could be wrong, the underlying assumption is a roughly linear reduction in contact over time. If that assumption is not true (because not enough action is taken) then there will be more cases.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
12 March 2020 15:41:27


Should add this is 'just for fun' (not really the best phrasing but can't think of any other).


Don't base any decisions on the results of my model.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


How about "thought experiment", Q? That's an honourable expression.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
xioni2
12 March 2020 15:41:29

All Foreign school trips WILL be cancelled.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Yes, we don't want our kids to be infecting other countries. This should have been done at least 2 weeks ago.


 

xioni2
12 March 2020 15:43:14


 Could be wrong, the underlying assumption is a roughly linear reduction in contact over time. If that assumption is not true (because not enough action is taken) then there will be more cases.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think your model is 'complacent'. (a linear misfit if you want of a distribution that is unlikely to remain ~linear)



 

Quantum
12 March 2020 15:43:57


 


This is what the next three days looks like on the model (cases for each day). Again, as I get more data hopefully it can be fine tuned.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
westv
12 March 2020 15:45:44

I can well see the FTSE 100 getting down to 40% below it's recent peak by the time this is all done.

At least it will be mild!
Quantum
12 March 2020 15:45:54


 


I think your model is 'complacent'. (a linear misfit if you want of a distribution that is unlikely to remain ~linear)



 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Wanted to keep contact reduction roughly linear otherwise there are just too many parameters and you end up with the 'october pattern index' hindcasting problem.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
12 March 2020 15:47:27


 Wanted to keep contact reduction roughly linear otherwise there are just too many parameters and you end up with the 'october pattern index' hindcasting problem.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yeah, the opi has become famous for all the wrong reasons. It might be taught at stat school one day.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 15:47:52


The reality of this is fairly simple....


We have reported infections (a known number) and actual infections (an unknown number).


Given the research now appearing, transmission happens very readily and the virus passes even before symptoms.


Because of this, the actual infection rate is likely to be a magnitude or 2 higher than the reported number so the horse has bolted and in fairness, there was very little that could have been done to prevent it. Closing borders would probably only have delayed the inevitable.


As an epidemic / pandemic was probably unavoidable, I think on balance the current response has been appropriate so whilst it is easy to be critical, we also need to be practical.



Originally Posted by: Roonie 

    What I said too but you expanded!


I too think we have to be practical and I hope HMG continue to be ruled by the science, rather than public panic!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

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