Am I right in thinking you work/used to work in education, Nick? If so what are the messages you're getting from the higher ups?

I have no idea where we'll stand (from an education standpoint) in the coming weeks/months. The Easter holidays perhaps coming at a convenient time for all schools to deep clean, but I'm not sure what difference it'll make given likely holidays/staycations/travel and the risk of transmission in the two-week period before the return to school.

I guess many more people will suffer from the economic depression which is now coming down the track.

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I don't get this...

1) If kids are with grandparents as of now, if they are carriers NOW they could infect them.

2) Kids do see their grandparents regularly anyway (in general).

3) If kids are kept at school, they have a longer period in contact with other people/potential carriers and so are more likely to get infected. See 2.

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Italy = 3,2,5,4

UK = 2,1,2,0

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Yes, there's a lot to learn about this virus still.  But children are a major source of spreading all manner of viruses so I would be surprised if this was any different.

If, as seems likely, this new SARS variant will become entrenched in all communities it's understandable why the view seems to be that somehow we need to build a level of herd immunity, so subsequent outbreaks become more manageable. If an effective vaccine becomes available that would accelerate the herd immunity - but it looks like we won't see a vaccine until 2021. Then of course we have to produce enough vaccine to immunise the vulnerable groups - which means perhaps a billion people? A monumental challenge. In parallel we need to try to protect those vulnerable groups during the interim period.

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Macron saying tonight that this is the worst health crisis France has faced for a century.

 

We are without question now witnessing history. And we are all about to go through something we have never come close to experiencing before.

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I see your point Caz, and I suggested to Doc it was an excellent post, but other European nations have expert scientists too. 

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I'm somewhat baffled by what they have put in place , I at least thought working from home might have been suggested , as you say lets hope they have got this right 

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HE.

As of Monday - for the last teaching week - we've been told to teach everything virtually/remotely. Uni still open, but no classes. So it'll just be admin stuff and, obviously, very few people, as next to no students.

All conferences have been cancelled. Foreign travel prohibited.

Awaiting news on the Open Days, but assuming/hoping they will be cancelled, especially as I'm the organiser!

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How  ?  I thought the usual conduit was through coughing  ?    Is it so infectious that you can catch it  from someone's breath, or do they "sweat"  out the virus through pores ?

 If either, I agree, it's  unstoppable and the Govt.  policy is the only sane approach.

 

 

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I was discussing this with someone earlier today: it looks like Spanish Flu in some ways and nobody alive will have experienced this before. An unseen enemy that might pose no threat to you or kill you and you don't know with certainty which.

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Thanks. That's probably more useful at this stage.

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I agree, there are flaws in this argument. I'm merely speculating out loud, with no particular viewpoint on this  Enjoying the discussion tonight 

 

ps, thanks for your other informative reply!

I'm assuming it's a combination of the fact that the viral shed is 1000 x more than SARS and the fact that, even without coughing, people touch their nose/mouth/eyes and then other surfaces.

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Agree with many of the above posts, especially from the Doc...you really are a voice of sanity on here! As Dev says, if Boris is paying heed to the experts then thank goodness for that unlike that moron across the other side of the pond...I’m sure we’d all agree that his behaviour, his pronouncements about the virus have been truly shocking...surely surely, notwithstanding Biden’s shortcomings, Trump will get booted out of office. It is my Dad’s funeral onSat ..family arrrived from the States on Tuesday and are now having to return to the States tomorrow before the funeral....very hard for them but they had no option!

The question is, after school holidays, do the pupils all return to give the virus to the staff?  Result, more school closures.  

From what I can gather, another reason behind the decision not to close schools, is the question how to occupy pupils.  How to keep them off the streets and avoid antisocial behaviour. 

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Isn't it spread through droplets in your breath? I thought sneezing (reportedly not a symptom of Covid-19) and coughing just pushed out more droplets and further? Then there's spread if you cough or sneeze into your hand and then touch a surface (hence the recommendation to use a tissue or sneeze/cough into the crook of your arm.

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Propaganda I'd say , how can they go from hundreds one week to next to nothing the next , I am very suspicious of the country that originally tried to hush this up

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We mustn’t forget after reading the last few pages that there indeed some children that are very vulnerable to this virus those receiving cancer treatments. Those children that have complex congenital heart and lung disease, those with CF and those children who have genetic faults at 22 with reduced immunity, those children right at this minute in PICU.

This list is short and not very complete but remember if it was your child no matter if it was 1 in a thousand you would be worried very indeed.

Agreed  It really is a pickle of a jam and I don't envy anyone who has to make these incredibly difficult calls.

Add that to the fact that some studies have shown a median of 20 days for virus shedding (many of those days without the subject showing any outward symptoms) and I really question whether there is anything we can do other than limit exposure with a balance on maintaining some sort of economic order and being doubly-diligent with hygiene.

Yes they do have experts too and I’m not suggesting that’s the only right way to deal with this, or even that there is a right way. Truth is nobody knows.  But we do have the benefit of seeing what hasn’t worked.

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'Lockdown can work' - Italy's foreign minister

Italy hopes to be the first European country to get over the coronavirus emergency, Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has told the BBC's Mark Lowen.

The death toll in Italy has continued to rise after the whole country was placed in lockdown this week, but Mr Di Maoi says the measures imposed in the first quarantine zone in northern Italy had been effective.

Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a "red zone" and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

This then served as a model to tighten measures across the country.

"Italy was the first nation in Europe to be affected so badly," said Mr Di Maio. "But I hope it also means that Italy is the first one to leave the emergency behind."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-51847128

 

 

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We do. 

Perhaps the decisions made by Ireland (and now France) , are political rather than scientific. 

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Ive not seen any evidence that closing schools makes much of a difference (happy to be corrected). Japan closed their schools on 27/02 and they still continue to add new cases at similar rates to pre closure.

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The first lockdown zone in Italy appears to be working​

Coronavirus: Italy says 1,000 have died but lockdown can work

Quote

Coronavirus has claimed 1,016 lives in Italy, officials say, but Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio says he hopes his country will be the first in Europe to get over the emergency. Another 188 people died over 24 hours.

However, Mr Di Maio told the BBC the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective. Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a "red zone" and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

This then served as a model to tighten measures across the country. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51852320

 

The key message here is lockdowns do work it's all about getting the timing right.

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