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SJV
12 March 2020 19:00:37


 


This is exactly the reason. 


If you implement the measures now people will over time become complacent and compliance will fall when it is needed the most. People shouting “they should do x, y and z immediately” are not considering the evidence-based scenario of compliance versus time. The approach being taken is based on scientific evidence and if people think we should discount that at any stage in this journey we are well and truly stuffed. There is no quick fix, “do this and it will be sorted quickly” scenario. It will be a bumpy ride but we surely must listen to the experts unless people think they know better than some of the world’s most experienced people in this field.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 Excellent, Doc. Fully agree.



I am coming round to this idea of flattening but will be a monumental task keeping the public onside when more and more countries jump onto the close everything bandwagon.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Also very valid and on point 

SJV
12 March 2020 19:02:38


 


That's missing the main point. The question is whether they have bought a temporary respite and will soon face millions more cases or have they achieved something more.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Millions more because restrictions will be eased too soon? 

Ally Pally Snowman
12 March 2020 19:04:34

If this virus is not going to peak for 10-14 weeks then there is no way euro 2020 can go ahead. Thousands of fans travelling across Europe to watch matches is a recipe for disaster.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


If the peak isnt until 3 months then the Irish will have to keep their schools shut for at least that long. A very long time

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chidog
12 March 2020 19:04:56


It seems as though China has managed to bring COVID-19. Are the UK's experts saying:


1) China has only bought a temporary respite and will soon see millions more cases


2) We can't do what China has done


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Answering both, China and maybe the US are uniquely placed to survive a prolonged isolation from the rest of the world until a vaccine is available due to their natural resources, population and wealth. Most countries couldn't do it. If China relax draconian restrictions before the virus has been almost conquered, it will come back in I'd say

Brian Gaze
12 March 2020 19:06:18

To achieve herd immunity what % of the population must succumb? Perhaps between 50% and 80%? Assuming the lower value it would mean about 35 million people in the UK. Italy is currently reporting 15,000 cases but let's assume the real number is 150,000. That means Italy has another 28.5 million infections to go. On current trends I think that would mean approx 200,000 deaths for them. In the UK the number will be a bit higher if all other things are equal.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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SJV
12 March 2020 19:08:08


"Early tracing among close contacts and in households has found that children are just as likely to catch the novel coronavirus as adults." AND "The school closures seen worldwide are justified, because children are the major spreaders of every respiratory illness known to exist."


Originally Posted by: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts 


Ally Pally Snowman
12 March 2020 19:08:27


 


That's missing the main point. The question is whether they have bought a temporary respite and will soon face millions more cases or have they achieved something more.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I have said all along that the Chinese numbers don't make sense how can they have already pretty much stopped their epidemic. It goes against all other virus pandemics .

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arcus
12 March 2020 19:09:16


 


That's missing the main point. The question is whether they have bought a temporary respite and will soon face millions more cases or have they achieved something more.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not really, as any 2nd wave will depend on the numbers that are still prone to infection vs. the numbers that have had it and have not been tested as they had mild or no symptoms.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Brian Gaze
12 March 2020 19:10:34

In WW2 the UK apparently lost 70,000 civilians. If we are going for herd immunity I suspect COVID-19 is going to a far more deadly foe to the man on the street than Hitler was.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 19:11:40


Excellent post as ever Doc, but I think some of the concern is our markedly different approach to other developed nations. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I’m completely with Doc on this!  Italy tried to close down and people fled to other areas, so that didn’t work and their health services are straining as a result.  I don’t know if what we’re doing is going to work but I’m prepared to try it.  I’d rather work with evidence based strategies than something we know hasn’t worked. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Arcus
12 March 2020 19:11:47
If we presume that 80% of the those that acquire the virus have mild or no symptoms (The 4/5ths being talked about in the briefings here), then they would not necessarily be tested.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Maunder Minimum
12 March 2020 19:12:06


To achieve herd immunity what % of the population must succumb? Perhaps between 50% and 80%? Assuming the lower value it would mean about 35 million people in the UK. Italy is currently reporting 15,000 cases but let's assume the real number is 150,000. That means Italy has another 28.5 million infections to go. On current trends I think that would mean approx 200,000 deaths for them. In the UK the number will be a bit higher if all other things are equal.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


This is the nub of the issue Brian and the enormous risk. You have to try to achieve herd immunity by allowing sufficient young and healthy people to catch it, without passing it on to the more vulnerable who overwhelm health services. A big ask.

New world order coming.
Gavin D
12 March 2020 19:12:18
President Macron has announced schools and universities across France will be closed from Monday
speckledjim
12 March 2020 19:14:43

I’ve had a look at the stats for Italy and I’m unsure how relevant this is but.....

Italy
25/02 - 320 cases
26/02 - 445
27/02 - 650
28/02 - 888

UK
09/03 - 321 cases
10/03 - 384
11/03 - 456
12/03 - 590

Also as at 26/02 Italy had only conducted 7132 tests whereas at the similar stage we had conducted approx 27000

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
SJV
12 March 2020 19:17:39

I’ve had a look at the stats for Italy and I’m unsure how relevant this is but.....

Italy
25/02 - 320 cases
26/02 - 445
27/02 - 650
28/02 - 888

UK
09/03 - 321 cases
10/03 - 384
11/03 - 456
12/03 - 590

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Backs up the stats that we're catching up to Italy's curve but that our tactics are flattening the peak.

Arcus
12 March 2020 19:19:42


 


This is the nub of the issue Brian and the enormous risk. You have to try to achieve herd immunity by allowing sufficient young and healthy people to catch it, without passing it on to the more vulnerable who overwhelm health services. A big ask.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The Government will have been warned early on that there was very little chance on containment. The cracks are too wide to close for the UK (and most countries).


This virus is a) very transmissible, and b) not only transmissible in the non-symptomatic phase, but research now seems to indicate is more transmissible in this phase than in the symptomatic phase. It's almost a perfect storm.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2020 19:20:26


 


With the war analogy in mind, you would not launch all your ordinance at the enemy when only their front lines come into range.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

  That’s exactly right!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
12 March 2020 19:22:08


 



Originally Posted by: SJV 


I thought that it was understood that children caught the virus? The evidence is just that the symptoms are very mild, for whatever reason.


But children being a major source of transmission is, I thought, one of the factors in whether to close schools because if the parents are working you really don't want grandparents doing the child minding.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
12 March 2020 19:23:37

President Macron has announced schools and universities across France will be closed from Monday

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


Again  they will be off for at least 3 months . If our experts are to be believed.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NickR
12 March 2020 19:26:18


 


I thought that it was understood that children caught the virus? The evidence is just that the symptoms are very mild, for whatever reason.


But children being a major source of transmission is, I thought, one of the factors in whether to close schools because if the parents are working you really don't want grandparents doing the child minding.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


From what I've seen the jury is still out on whether they are not as susceptible to getting infected full stop or whether they tend to have only mild symptoms. Or both, I suppose.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gandalf The White
12 March 2020 19:26:47


  That’s exactly right!


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes, I was impressed with that analogy.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NickR
12 March 2020 19:27:05


 


 


Again  they will be off for at least 3 months . If our experts are to be believed.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And ours will thus be off for about 2 and a half months. Either way, the school year is a goner.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
12 March 2020 19:29:00


I’ve had a look at the stats for Italy and I’m unsure how relevant this is but.....

Italy
25/02 - 320 cases
26/02 - 445
27/02 - 650
28/02 - 888

UK
09/03 - 321 cases
10/03 - 384
11/03 - 456
12/03 - 590

Also as at 26/02 Italy had only conducted 7132 tests whereas at the similar stage we had conducted approx 27000


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


What are the figures for deaths?

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
SJV
12 March 2020 19:30:30


 


But children being a major source of transmission is, I thought, one of the factors in whether to close schools because if the parents are working you really don't want grandparents doing the child minding.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes it seems like children, whilst being effective carriers and spreaders, do not suffer the most severe aspects of the virus. I agree with your last line about vulnerable grandparents child minding. Not a great scenario as a result of closing schools. You would think, if that was to be taken into account, that school closures would tie in with a general 'lockdown' scenario to reduce this risk.


I've also been reading about the potential for mutations, with the potential for this flu to be a seasonal outbreak in the years to come as we try to develop vaccines to combat the likely mutations of this RNA virus.

Ally Pally Snowman
12 March 2020 19:32:43


 


And ours will thus be off for about 2 and a half months. Either way, the school year is a goner.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


Fair enough I just hope we do it eventually.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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