Pretty well bang on then... Well done indeed...the average chart verifies the trend and we could lurch from swamp to drought. It doesn't take long - 14 days or so for some soils to dry right out - even after the rain we have had....and therefore endorsing the Met Office prediction of weather getting stuck in ruts for long periods - famine and feast, depending what you like and the ground needs.

I remember the 'stuck in ruts' theory being seriously advanced in the 1990s and promoted as a contrast to previous weather patterns. It was probably a reaction to the long summer droughts which were a feature of some years prior to that as I never saw any proper analysis.

Back to the here and now

Passing troughs on Fri & Sun, then HP getting established for the rest of the GFS run through to Sat 28th March. The models are not stable when it comes to predicting where the HP will set up - GFS now says centred over the UK (not Baltic as yesterday) peak 1040mb Mon 23rd, and ridges forming in various directions from time to time so winds vary, mostly W-ly in week 1 then E-ly in week 2 but lighter than forecast earlier (no gales in the Channel on today's run)

ECM agrees and reaches 1030mb centred over UK  at the end of its run on Sat 21st. BBC last night showing a more elongated ridge from mid-Atlantic across UK to central Europe.

Ens runs cool at first, good agreement for getting milder after current dip with peaks Sat 14th and Fri 19th (the latter less marked in N) after which divergence sets in - mean near average but control run v. cold on Mon 23rd. Very dry in S but some rain in N at first.

Yup we do finally seem to be firming up on quite a decent spell of dry weather. Long overdue

I started doing runs up Moel Fammau in north wales last year, even kept them going in the dark - doing them with a head torch, was pretty much the highlight of the week....  

Havent done it since about November, as the ground was just like a bog, and almost impossible to get any rythm - even up hill.  a dry continental feed will do nicely with longer brighter days to bring the plants into growth.  It should help firm the ground up enough to start up the running again...

Got the Liverpool Half on Sunday, weather looks fairly decent, slack winds and a little damp..

Hear hear!

Absolutley. But I'd also welcome an absence of wind: I'm getting fed up with being buffeted every time we go outside and having to pick up the dustbins.

Have you notice how the GFS 18z output has the UK under a slack SE airflow in from Italy between 21st and 27th Mar?

the breeze is welcome - it’s the only thing that dries out the sodden ground at this time of year

A breeze is fine; it's the gales I'm concerned about.  Breezes don't knock over half-full recycling and waste bins.

As for drying out, the field behind us is still under water on our side and will take weeks to dry.

At this time of year a week of sunny weather to wake up the trees should draw alot of that liquid away

After this weekend with troughs in the westerly stream passing through, high pressure is around for the next couple of weeks. GFS still not certain on how it develops - today's version is Wed 18th 1030mb over the S with link to Atlantic centre; the latter moves N to Scotland Sat 21st 1045mb with N or NE winds developing; then to Baltic Wed 25th 1040mb with ridge to UK and E-ly winds; further E again by Sat 28th and new centre over Iceland at that time with slack LP over UK. Complex, but not the simple HP centred over the UK as suggested yesterday.

ECM similar though more of a ridge to Europe on Sat 21st which means less of the N/NE-lies

GEFS  cool-mild-cool-mild to 18th then down to 5C below normal on 21st, mean of runs recovering to normal but with plenty of scatter. Dry in the S, a little rain at first and around the 18th in the N (though just one run has a startling peak of 25mm rain on the 20th in the S).

Well we could certainly do with that. However what we really need is some early spring warmth with it too, would help slow the Coronavirus spread to a degree.

This year is a marked contrast to last year, when the lack of moisture in the soils around here meant that the trees were delayed from coming into leaf until there was some rain.  That certainly won't be a problem this spring!

I noticed that too.  I think it must have gone off on one.

I'm a bit confused as to whether warmth is necessarily a good thing. On the BBC website this morning:

Susan Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, said "nobody has the right answer" when it comes to tackling the virus.

However, she said having sports events played behind closed doors could be counterproductive as it might instead lead people to gathering in pubs "in the warmth, where viruses love it".

I wonder whether it might turn out that high pressure alone is the significant factor in stopping the spread of viruses. It's long been known in horse racing that when a particular stable's horses have been running badly owing to a virus, what clears it up is a freeze-up. In this country that means high pressure being in control in winter (i.e. the opposite to the one we still seem to be in). Maybe it's as simple as a lack of wind preventing these viruses being blown about.

Anyway, let's hope the bullseye col shown at day 8 on the ECM this morning comes off.

Why?0 - oh well - least it would be drier, if this came about! 

Are models picking up on this major SSW potential? - hence showing an easterly in recent models and Scandi HP!?

Just having a look at snow cover over Eurasia:

Remarkable a how much it has receded and snowline never really made it to eastern Europe either. Southern Scandinavia and Baltics are snow free - even the Ukraine and it's only early March still. Little if any snow over Alps and virtually nothing over Pyrenees! Wow. If anyone wants to go skiing then Norway is best or Maybe Turkey is best but even that looks patchy there.  

06 Operational @ 240z

06z Control @ 240z:

While us here at Kent will (or rather, should) do well out of next week's ridge of high pressure moving in from the Azores thus bringing some welcome dry weather our way, it seems that other parts of the UK may be less fortunate with wavering weather fronts being strung through the middle part of the country. I suspect that may bring even more unwanted high rainfall amounts to Cumbria, Northern Ireland and surrounding areas by the middle part of next week.