Yes, I listened to him.  But - and I didn't much after the questions from the audience started - he didn't cover the other side of the argument, i.e. the one about timing and these measures only being effective for a certain period of time.

If we followed his advice to have acted already what do we do in several weeks' time when the virus is still circulating?

It seems there is no simple answer here and experts won't all have the same opinion.

 

Edit: I am not sure that his comments about the Ebola outbreak fit the facts.  Yes, local customs regarding funeral rites for the dead were a major factor but how do you change the culture overnight amongst a suspicious and fearful population?

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Arsenals match v Brighton has now been postponed

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Could well be that yourself and Polar Low have nothing but a classic cold or touch of flu so don't be worrying too much. And I will maintain that a bit of spring warmth and sunshine will do wonders for the spirit. Damn this current weather to hell, it is almost like it is being intentionally soul destroyingly miserable. 

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I think i’m going to make myself ill to be honest. I have a stress headache and can’t think about anything other than this damn virus. Anyone else feeling the same way?
I’m 43, in general good health but have what I would call ‘mild’ asthma, which is making me concerned.

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My mum called me in tears earlier. She was worried about her mum (My grandmother), Me and her husband who has underlying health conditions. 

Today has been an utterly surreal day.

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Try not to stress. Keep this in mind.

If you observe some basic precuations your chance of contracting the virus is slim. You can protect yourself by not touching your face or any unnecessary surfaces, sanitizing with alcohol and soap/water when you have acsess to it, and staying out of coughing distance from anyone as much as you can.

It may be capable of surviving in aerosols but this is not a primary means of transmission and you need a certain dosage of the virus to contract it.

 

If you take reasonable precuations your chance of getting it is slim. But even if you do contract it, the chance of anything going wrong is also slim given your age. And indeed having asthma inhalers at your disposal may actually be useful if you do contract it (although I haven't looked too much into this, might be something worth researching or asking about).

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Regarding the UK being behind the rest of Europe.

People in here will know I've been extremely critical of complacency e.c.t. and suggested we should do more. However I cannot deny the empirical evidence which continues to show that we are miles ahead of our European counterparts.

Not only are we two weeks behind (which is good) but our growth rate is weaker than the rest of Europe with sustained local transmission.

https://rpubs.com/thelilster/583398

Take a look.

 

In terms of countries that have been infected for a while only Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong are doing better than we are. Our approach has not yet been disastorous. And I can see the secondary issues asociated with closing schools. My reckoning is we have to take precautions that are sustainable and limit the economic damage in essential sectors (because severe economic shock will potentially also make the virus worse) such as food, medical e.c.t.

 

At an individual level we all should practice social distancing but crucially make sure it is sustainable. I've learnt from my month+ long stint that this isn't always easy and I did lapse a bit during February. Start by cutting out things you can easily do with out and gradually progress to things that are harder to get rid of. Eventually you will adapt. I've learnt, for example, to appreciate running on my own in a seculuded ruralish area vs meeting up on an urban evening with my running group. But it does take time to adapt to it. Things  like always using the left hand to touch forgein surfaces and then washing with alcohol when out e.c.t. also you eventually get used to.

 

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Fu@k off and die you plebs

 

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You (and I) may be saying this, but this is not the Government's advice. Their strategy and message are clear now, they want to build herd immunity among the healthy people and shelter the vulnerable people. They are not saying do social distancing now or work from home, they are saying if/when you get it, just self isolate for 7 days so you don't pass it. They will even stop testing among the general public.

Our approach is unique in Europe and probably globally. Could we be the really bright outlier and every other country's leadership and scientists have herd mentality and they are behind the curve? Yes it's possible, but I find it very risky and it could backfire in a huge way.

 

I've just read a tweet from a medical professional in Italy...they're having to take 40 year olds of ventilators in favour of 30 year olds. So much for this being a problem solely for the elderly. I really don't much fancy being on life support.

Absolutely horrifying.

I think trying to build 'herd immunity' is a reckless thing to do personally.

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I'll reserve judgment as I am not an expert. I just hope they are not overlying on modelling as the hindsight accuracy of models can be misleading. Newsnight had an epidemiologist advising the Danish government and he was very surprised by HMG's approach and he questioned it.

Even if that is the govts stance, then surely they would want healthy/young people to socially distance to prevent them from getting the virus too early. I thought it is still the govts policy to flatten the curve.

Regardless, I'd still suggest socially distancing yourself is a good thing.

 

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Callum Hudson-Odoi (Chelsea) also tests positive for coronavirus. Chelsea's first team put into self-isolation.

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2020/03/13/chelsea-fc-training-facility-will-undergo-partial-closure-after-

Trudeau's wife confirmed as testing positive for it too, Justin Trudeau to be in isolation for 14 days.

You have to conclude from the fact that so many well known people have been diagnosed, that this is absolutely rampant.

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The same headline is on most of the papers today. I would imagine that solicitors and will-writing services will be seeing a surge in demand today!

I do wonder about the government's strategy. We had a teacher in our office (in the school yesterday), who had to wait for a good 10 minutes while we dealt with other people - they were coughing a bit. When they were sorted out (which didn't take long) they said that their grandson had coronavirus!

Needless to say we used large amounts of Dettol as soon as she'd gone.

OTOH, if the government's strategy is for the majority to get it (and a substantial chunk of elderly to die), then TBH I'd rather get it over and done with.

 

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Callum Hundson Odi has now also tested positive for Corona.

This business as usual approach may take a quick turn from the government as more public figures announce they have it. The perception from the public is that this is really very widespread.

I expect the laughable decision from the premier league yesterday to press on with all fixtures this weekend will be quickly revised this morning.

At least two matches will be off anyways

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I think so, too.

The "inevitable" spread continues - China reports just 8 cases of which 3 are from abroad. 

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That’s my feeling too.  High profile people have the benefit of getting tested, so will know if they have it.  Whereas I know a couple of  people, and have heard of others, who have had symptoms but have been told they don’t need testing, so they don’t know if they have it or not. 

The law of averages and current trends suggest it’s likely to be more prevalent than positive tested figures show.  The good news is, if that’s the case, most people with the virus are not at high risk and don’t need hospital treatment. 

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I have to be honest, I'm extremely concerned and stress levels are rising. Many people I've spoken to are also experiencing a deep sense of foreboding about what may happen. This feeling is very widespread and you are definitely not alone.

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Exactly - we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that most cases are mild (in both the medical sense and the practical sense).

The Tele (paywalled) has an excellent graph, spellings aside, of the symptoms reported by the Chinese cases. I can't c&p it due to the HTML used, so here's the text version.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/

Fever: 87.9%
Dry cough: 67.7%
Fatigue: 38.1%
Spatum (sic) production: 33.4%
Shortness of breath: 18.6%
Muscle/joint pain: 14.8%
Sore throat: 13.9%
Headache: 13.6%
Chills: 11.4%
Nausea or vomitting: 5%
Nasal congestion: 4.8%
Diarrhoaa (sic): 3.7%

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I do too but have just had my first proper cold for 5 years. I honestly think all of these things probably make a marginal difference at best.

Wrt over the counter medications I have hear different things. 

Is fever good or bad? Scientifically, we just do not know. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4703655/

 

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If only we could 'pause' the financial markets and restart them again in three months.

It's almost like we're in a World war.

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