There's a much better piece in the Lancet:

This sex predisposition might be associated with the much higher smoking rate in men than in women in China (288 million men vs 12·6 million women were smokers in 2018). Of note, one study (preprint)5 found that although ACE2 expression was not significantly different between Asian and white people, men and women, or subgroups aged older and younger than 60 years, it was significantly higher in current smokers of Asian ethnicity than Asian non-smokers; although no difference was found between smokers and non-smokers who were white. Nonetheless, the current literature does not support smoking as a predisposing factor in men or any subgroup for infection with SARS-CoV-2. In the study by Zhang and colleagues,2 only 1·4% of patients were current smokers, although this number was much higher at 12·6% in the study by Guan and colleagues.4 The relatively small proportion of current smokers in each of these two studies compared with the proportion of male smokers in China (50·5%) are unlikely to be associated with incidence or severity of COVID-19. A trend towards an association was seen between smoking and severity of COVID-19 in the study by Zhang and colleagues2 (11·8% of smokers had non-severe disease vs 16·9% of smokers with severe disease), but it was not significant. Without strong evidence of an association between smoking and prevalence or severity of COVID-19 in Asian men compared with other subgroups, no firm conclusions can be drawn. With more cases being examined from different ethnic and genetic backgrounds worldwide, ACE2 expression variation can be better analysed and compared to establish whether it contributes to susceptibility to COVID-19 across the different subgroups.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30117-X/fulltext

In Finland we managed to buy some FFP2 masks. Does anyone have a view on:

1) How long they work for? (can the same mask be used many times before it becomes ineffective)

2) Do they offer any protection against COVID-19?

My understanding is that they do, but I don't know for hong long you can use them and about reusing them. And they will def protect other people, if you already have the virus.

Quantum will know everything.

I read somewhere in the last day or two that they are good for 4 hours and shouldn't be re-used. I notice though that some are marked disposable whilst others presumably have replaceable filter elements.

I think you'd need the spec for whatever particular model you have. Bear in mind that guidelines for dust might be different from those for infectious aerosol.

I have also read that infected people should wear them to protect anyone close to them but because the main infection route is contact, they aren't particularly effective at protecting an uninfected person. I just don't know what to believe.

Iranian initial complacency has completely gone now:

Iranian forces will clear the streets nationwide within 24 hours and all citizens will be checked for the new coronavirus in a bid to halt its spread, the military said Friday.

A newly formed commission has been charged with overseeing the "emptying of shops, streets and roads" within that timeframe, armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri said.

"During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified."

The measures were brought into force after supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the armed forces to lead the battle against the new coronavirus.

I wonder what ‘fully identified’ means in Iran? 😳

Now 1063 new cases and 34 deaths since midnight. 

Its clear now that Spain is the next Italy :(

Romanian government goes into quarantine. Things are moving so quickly I wonder whether some countries will take a punt and try to capitalise on the chaos? For example, snatch territory.

Didn't we own a bit of France a while ago. That would be a good snatch.

Dedication to the cause.

I expect the French would probably be happy at the moment to transfer ownership of Brittany to us. It's a corona hot spot I think. 

Christ on a cracker. Now Bolsonaro tests positive. How accurate are these tests? That's a serious question.

Corona virus is achieving in weeks what Extinction Rebellion could not in a hundred years - air travel is ceasing across the world and travel between nations is reducing to pre-industrial levels. Latest countries to lock down international travel:

"The Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela said: "The ban applies to all arrivals, from whichever country."

The directive is expected to severely impact the tourism sector, which accounts for a quarter of Malta's gross domestic product."

"Ukraine will not be allowing foreigners into the country starting this weekend in an attempt to stop the spread of coronavirus."

P.S.

"Some of the 1.2 million Romanians working in Italy are trying to come home despite a government appeal not to."

Just imagine.

What an interesting article.

Yes. Was due to travel to Almeria next weekend. Not going now. Ryanair are doing changes free of charge, but think spain will close down soon, so will have refund and go later. Maybe. 

We've booked summer hols in Hel (Poland by the Baltic because didn't want 40C heat yet again) in June but have in practise already written it off. 

You don't like heat so you booked to go to Hell?

 That aside it is an appropriate name this year.

Can you imagine the reaction of Liverpool supporters if the Pools Panel denied them the title?

😱

My 'just for fun' model is now predicting 75k cases in total. Very sensitive to changes in parameters. Will be interesting to see if it starts to converge as more data comes in.