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Polar Low
13 March 2020 20:06:29

It’s amazing what a few words can do.


Dow heading for 3 or 2 biggest percentage rise in history 


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia


 


 

Ally Pally Snowman
13 March 2020 20:06:56


Trump declares national emergency.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I know Trump is box office because he is so insane but why do we need to see all of this press conference.  Never quite understood why we are so obsessed with all things Yank.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
SJV
13 March 2020 20:11:53


It’s amazing what a few words can do.


Dow heading for 3 or 2 biggest percentage rise in history 


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


It'll crash again next week. Volatile times.

Arcus
13 March 2020 20:14:50


 


I dread to think the impact on the economy if we go for 60% infection in the next 12 to 18 months to get herd immunity. That's on top of the several hundred thousand body bags which will need processing.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Brian there's going to be 60% infection anyway no matter what we do.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 20:18:59


 


Brian there's going to be 60% infection anyway no matter what we do.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Agreed - the key is to flatten the curve.


Interestingly, even though the government has not mandated it, organisations are doing the business anyway and are cancelling mass events.


The one thing a government can do, which governing bodies like the Football Association cannot, is to close borders. As we speak, borders across Europe are closing. But even then, we don't need to do that, since everybody else already is. Who would book a Spanish holiday now, or a skiing holiday in the Alps? The government is using behavioural science to achieve what others are mandating. Interesting times.

New world order coming.
Gavin D
13 March 2020 20:19:55
Spain have reported 2,086 new cases and 46 new deaths.

Total now 5,232 with 132 deaths
picturesareme
13 March 2020 20:21:24
I'm now very sceptical of the Italians

If they're to be believed almost 1 in every 14 people to contract Coronavirus have died.

17660 cases - 1266 deaths.

In contrast to say Germany were it's more like 1 in every 612.

3062 cases - 5 deaths.

Italy stands out against all of Europe and even the Chinese.

There is another pattern that does appear to be emerging and that is the Germanic/nordic countries in general have a lower case to ratio death rate the more southern European countries. I wonder if there could be genetic variables starting to show...
Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 20:24:21



There is another pattern that does appear to be emerging and that is the Germanic/nordic countries in general have a lower case to ratio death rate the more southern European countries. I wonder if there could be genetic variables starting to show...

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I doubt that - more likely is that Germany has so far had very effective palliative measures, but their death rate is bound to increase as they use up all their spare ICU capacity.


Just read the following:


"


Worst Case Scenario by CDC [source]


Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected (Worst case scenario). Dr. Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist, provided a “best guess” projections of 96 million people


Could last months or even over a year


As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. Dr. Lawler’s calculations: 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative"


- realistic, but sobering.

New world order coming.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
13 March 2020 20:27:50

I'm now very sceptical of the Italians

If they're to be believed almost 1 in every 14 people to contract Coronavirus have died.

17660 cases - 1266 deaths.

In contrast to say Germany were it's more like 1 in every 612.

3062 cases - 5 deaths.

Italy stands out against all of Europe and even the Chinese.

There is another pattern that does appear to be emerging and that is the Germanic/nordic countries in general have a lower case to ratio death rate the more southern European countries. I wonder if there could be genetic variables starting to show...

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Maybe some North Europeans have already been exposed to a somewhat similar challenge, we probably get more of them in total than in the south.

North York Moors weather 
Whether Idle
13 March 2020 20:27:57

Craven Johnson and his bunch of cretinous cretins allegedly in charge (lol) of the country have shown themselves to be so utterly off the pace.  


Johnson basically said yesterday what anyone with a few brain cells knew already about this Tory party: 


"We love money more than we care for our people.  We will sacrifice your loved ones because we (the cabinet rich boys club) have too much to lose".


 They will get their comeuppance alright.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Tim A
13 March 2020 20:29:00


 


Brian there's going to be 60% infection anyway no matter what we do.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Indeed, I think I just want to go out and catch it now and then keep out of the way of any vulnerable people and relatives.


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Arcus
13 March 2020 20:29:54

I'm now very sceptical of the Italians

If they're to be believed almost 1 in every 14 people to contract Coronavirus have died.

17660 cases - 1266 deaths.

In contrast to say Germany were it's more like 1 in every 612.

3062 cases - 5 deaths.

Italy stands out against all of Europe and even the Chinese.

There is another pattern that does appear to be emerging and that is the Germanic/nordic countries in general have a lower case to ratio death rate the more southern European countries. I wonder if there could be genetic variables starting to show...

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Because infection in the wider population is far more than those that have been tested, and 80% of people will have either no symptoms at all or very mild symptoms, therefore will never be candidates for testing.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gandalf The White
13 March 2020 20:32:29
Trump being typical Trump; he really doesn't like to be challenged or criticised.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
13 March 2020 20:32:33

I'm now very sceptical of the Italians

If they're to be believed almost 1 in every 14 people to contract Coronavirus have died.

17660 cases - 1266 deaths.

In contrast to say Germany were it's more like 1 in every 612.

3062 cases - 5 deaths.

Italy stands out against all of Europe and even the Chinese.

There is another pattern that does appear to be emerging and that is the Germanic/nordic countries in general have a lower case to ratio death rate the more southern European countries. I wonder if there could be genetic variables starting to show...

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


 


Here's the latest stats. The differing death rates will be to do with cases per population and not being as far along in their epidemic. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/&ved=2ahUKEwjprbHSpJjoAhXOi1wKHThQAzUQjBAwAXoECAYQCg&usg=AOvVaw3kNWYzks92mP5xVSU6CwDa


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
13 March 2020 20:33:04


 


I doubt that - more likely is that Germany has so far had very effective palliative measures, but their death rate is bound to increase as they use up all their spare ICU capacity.


Just read the following:


"


Worst Case Scenario by CDC [source]


Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected (Worst case scenario). Dr. Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist, provided a “best guess” projections of 96 million people


Could last months or even over a year


As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. Dr. Lawler’s calculations: 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative"


- realistic, but sobering.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The thing though is that most of the german cases have been considered mild so not really needing hospital. Also Germany is not the only country with a significant number of cases with very low death rates when compared to Italy...


Norway 969 - 1 death


Sweden 814 - 1 death


Denmark 801 - 0 deaths


Austria 501 - death


 

Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 20:33:10


 


Indeed, I think I just want to go out and catch it now and then keep out of the way of any vulnerable people and relatives.


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Not a bad appoach if you are physically fit. Once you have the antibodies, you are immune and can visit anyone and go anywhere.


C4 News profiled a UK company which is making antibody test kits for COVID-19 which will give a result in 10 minutes (you just place a drop of you blood in the tester). Once you have the antibodies, you are either infected (if you feel unwell) or have had it already. They say to run two tests days apart. Currently, it is is only available to pharmicists, but before long you will be able to purchase these test kits yourself.


 

New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
13 March 2020 20:35:05


 


Because infection in the wider population is far more than those that have been tested, and 80% of people will have either no symptoms at all or very mild symptoms, therefore will never be candidates for testing.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Based on what the CMO said last night it could be 90%, if there are ten times as many cases as have been identified.


If we can protect the more vulnerable then the mortality rate for the rest could indeed look broadly similar to flu.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Tim A
13 March 2020 20:36:43


 


Not a bad appoach if you are physically fit. Once you have the antibodies, you are immune and can visit anyone and go anywhere.


C4 News profiled a UK company which is making antibody test kits for COVID-19 which will give a result in 10 minutes (you just place a drop of you blood in the tester). Once you have the antibodies, you are either infected (if you feel unwell) or have had it already. They say to run two tests days apart. Currently, it is is only available to pharmicists, but before long you will be able to purchase these test kits yourself.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


That is good news, especially if it will show if you have had it already which may not be entirely obvious.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
picturesareme
13 March 2020 20:36:44


 


 


 


Here's the latest stats. The differing death rates will be to do with cases per population and not being as far along in their epidemic. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/&ved=2ahUKEwjprbHSpJjoAhXOi1wKHThQAzUQjBAwAXoECAYQCg&usg=AOvVaw3kNWYzks92mP5xVSU6CwDa


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


No I'm not talking cases per population that's not relevant to the ratio of death to infected. Also this is far better site with more details and clicks on individual countries for more stats including reported severity of cases...


 


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


 

Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 20:37:44


 


The thing though is that most of the german cases have been considered mild so not really needing hospital. Also Germany is not the only country with a significant number of cases with very low death rates when compared to Italy...


Norway 969 - 1 death


Sweden 814 - 1 death


Denmark 801 - 0 deaths


Austria 501 - death


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


It is an odd picture I agree. Why do Switzerland and the Netherlands have more deaths than Sweden or Norway, with a similar number of cases?

New world order coming.
Gavin D
13 March 2020 20:42:09


 


Not a bad appoach if you are physically fit. Once you have the antibodies, you are immune and can visit anyone and go anywhere.


C4 News profiled a UK company which is making antibody test kits for COVID-19 which will give a result in 10 minutes (you just place a drop of you blood in the tester). Once you have the antibodies, you are either infected (if you feel unwell) or have had it already. They say to run two tests days apart. Currently, it is is only available to pharmicists, but before long you will be able to purchase these test kits yourself.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Yeah. Out next week for pharmacists and ready for public use within 3-weeks.

Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 20:42:43

Switzerland is closing down all its ski resorts, despite good snow conditions and fully booked hotels - they are taking the economic hit on the chin to control the virus.


Their next step is to restrict entry to foreign nationals.


"Ski resort guests told to leave Zermatt"

New world order coming.
Polar Low
13 March 2020 20:44:34

interesting week next week Financial markets are certainly under stress.


With most investors pricing in at least a 50 basis point cut from the Fed maybe 0% Meeting 18th March EOL also expected.Fed may also launch a targeted quantitative easing program.


That approach might worry Fed Governors, however, after having seen European stocks fall the most on record following the European Central Bank's decision to focus its support strategy on bond purchases  and loan support programs while leaving interest rates unchanged. 


 



 


It'll crash again next week. Volatile times.


Originally Posted by: SJV 

Gavin D
13 March 2020 20:45:18

Channel 4 saying a kit will be out from next week yet this article says 6-months. Someones done one in rapid time!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/inventor-home-pregnancy-test-develops-coronavirus-test/ 

Arcus
13 March 2020 20:45:46


 


Based on what the CMO said last night it could be 90%, if there are ten times as many cases as have been identified.


If we can protect the more vulnerable then the mortality rate for the rest could indeed look broadly similar to flu.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes this is going to be a case of cocooning our vulnerable citizens whilst we take the virus on board for them so it has nowhere to go.


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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