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Bugglesgate
14 March 2020 09:12:26


You could be right but once it is past it's peak world wide the mood will change. Probably...


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


I've got savings to fall back on but as ever those like me will have to bail out the feckless. Unlike most people I don't mind that.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


I  now think we will have economic disruption on a scale rarely seen outside of war until a vaccine is produced.  My concern remains the banking  sector.  All these years on  from 2008 and we STILL have institutions "too big to fail".  


On the political side,  inevitably, we are going to see  more Govt intervention than we have seen since WW2.   If we see more  nonsense like the "great bog roll farce" we could even see centrally   controlled rationing,


I suspsct this will finally  see some serious chunks knocked out the Thatcherite "lite touch" Govt. ethos    we have seen enduring  since the 80s and people will start to see the merit in properly run and financed Public Sector - at least I hope so !


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
speckledjim
14 March 2020 09:13:21


 


 



I initially thought the Govt. approach was the right one but I've changed my mind having thought about it a bit more.


The bottom line is that it's not compatible with the daily confirmed  cases graph here :-


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14


To my eye, since the 10th of march it is exponential in growth.  That is not compatible with the Govt. approach and if the trajectory doesn't change within  a week or so the policy is a dead duck IMHO and I think they will be forced to "reverse ferret" !


Even if  we manage to keep the  infection rate below the threshold that "bricks" the NHS,  I think it is likley that Herd immunity will take a  lot longer that  it will take to get a vaccine for this thing.!


Closer to home,  "the day job" announced late on Friday  that anyone that can work from home should do.  As  my job  "hands on" hardware I can't do that but draining the place of "pen pushers"  and  their oft called meetings  will reduce my risk of infection so I'm in favour of it.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


Over the last 5 days the growth in new cases in the UK has been - 15%, 20%, 19%, 29%, 35%. However, there has been a ramp up in testing for the last 2 days so that will explain the jump from 19 to 29

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Bugglesgate
14 March 2020 09:16:28


Over the last 5 days the growth in new cases in the UK has been - 15%, 20%, 19%, 29%, 35%. However, there has been a ramp up in testing for the last 2 days so that will explain the jump from 19 to 29


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


Looks like we will have to wait a few more days before drawing a concluding on the graph trajectory then.  I will  retain my newly found scepticism on  the Govt. approach though


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 09:19:33

The Boris "let it rip" strategy will lead to more infections short term and need for ventilators. Just as well we have loads of factories and healthcare workers trained to use them


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Joe Bloggs
14 March 2020 09:19:38

Must be loads of people cancelling their holidays because everything is closed where they were going but no getting a refund because the FCO haven't advised against travel to that area.
We might have to be one of them if this carries on into April.

Originally Posted by: westv 




It’s an absolute nightmare.


My family have a two week break in Thailand booked for April.


Obviously they have huge doubts whether they can go, but really they can’t cancel unless the FCO advise against all travel, as that’s probably the only scenario where you’d get a refund either via your airline or via insurance.


If they go they run the risk of being refused a visa or being forced to self isolate for 2 weeks. 


It’s extremely volatile and the communication from many of these overseas nations isn’t great. Take Thailand’s official page for instance: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/index.php


The whole situation is a nightmare and I’m glad I had my holiday when I did! I see Cambodia has banned entry to from many European countries.


So many people will have a holiday booked to Thailand over the Easter holidays and this is a nightmare scenario. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 09:21:32


 


 


Over the last 5 days the growth in new cases in the UK has been - 15%, 20%, 19%, 29%, 35%. However, there has been a ramp up in testing for the last 2 days so that will explain the jump from 19 to 29


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Has there?


The govt is not going to test people at home anymore in order to suppress the figures


Information is power as xioni's post earlier explained so well


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
14 March 2020 09:21:59


 


You could be right but once it is past it's peak world wide the mood will change. Probably...


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


I've got savings to fall back on but as ever those like me will have to bail out the feckless. Unlike most people I don't mind that.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


The world runs entirely on debt, it seems. Supermarkets order “just in time”. Companies are surviving from one month (or week) to the next. Old-fashioned values like keeping money for a rainy day seem to be very out of vogue.


I am as guilty of this as anyone. I’m lucky in that I have just received a large redundancy payout (and have a new job lined up which hopefully will be relatively immune from disruption, in as much as any can be) and thus have plenty of cash on hand, but before that I was very much living pay cheque to pay cheque, sleepwalking through life with very little safety net. Lots of people do that and the current crisis is going to expose the flaws in that way of life.  

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Devonian
14 March 2020 09:22:48


 


I  now think we will have economic disruption on a scale rarely seen outside of war until a vaccine is produced.  My concern remains the banking  sector.  All these years on  from 2008 and we STILL have institutions "too big to fail".  


On the political side,  inevitably, we are going to see  more Govt intervention than we have seen since WW2.   If we see more  nonsense like the "great bog roll farce" we could even see centrally   controlled rationing,


I suspsct this will finally  see some serious chunks knocked out the Thatcherite "lite touch" Govt. ethos    we have seen enduring  since the 80s and people will start to see the merit in properly run and financed Public Sector - at least I hope so !


 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


I think this is likely unless we are in a best case scenario* - the shock to the USA could be worse. If this virus end up evening humanity, financially, it will have had some benefits, if it makes us value life by more than how fast we can waste money and lay waste to the planet then better*.


The best case is most of the economically active get a mild infection and once the peak passes things ease. I think that is quite likely*


* caveat, none of us know, me included.

speckledjim
14 March 2020 09:23:44


 


 


Looks like we will have to wait a few more days before drawing a concluding on the graph trajectory then.  I will  retain my newly found scepticism on  the Govt. approach though


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


As we are only testing now in hospitals then you'd expect a jump so we need some more days of data yet to see how it is progressing

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 09:24:51


xionis post makes a lot of sense but I wonder if cultural differences play a significant factor here? Maybe in Europe people are less likely to go along with what is asked of them? Perhaps the measures in Singapore are not possible to be implemented in anything like as effective a way in Europe?


I honestly don't know.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

That’s a good point and I think it has probably played a big part.  In Europe we’re politically divided, outspoken, rebellious and believe freedom of choice is our right.  That isn’t the case in some other countries.


We don’t know whether HMG have got it right or not and we don’t know whether other countries have.  But I don’t think there’s a one size fits all solution partly because of our differences and partly because we don’t have enough answers yet. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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speckledjim
14 March 2020 09:29:03


 


Has there?


The govt is not going to test people at home anymore in order to suppress the figures


Information is power as xioni's post earlier explained so well


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


As of yesterday we had tested 32771 people. We had been testing approx 1500 per day and that has now increased to 2288 on the 12th and 3007 on the 12th.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Devonian
14 March 2020 09:30:27





It’s an absolute nightmare.


My family have a two week break in Thailand booked for April.


Obviously they have huge doubts whether they can go, but really they can cancel unless the FCO advise against all travel, as that’s probably the only scenario where you’d get a refund either via your airline or via insurance.


If they go they run the risk of being refused a visa or being forced to self isolate for 2 weeks. 


It’s extremely volatile and the communication from many of these overseas nations isn’t great. Take Thailand’s official page for instance: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/index.php


The whole situation is a nightmare and I’m glad I had my holiday when I did! I see Cambodia has banned entry to from many European countries.


So many people will have a holiday booked to Thailand over the Easter holidays and this is a nightmare scenario. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I haven't been abroad for yonks, the idea of going to the far east would fill me with dread.


Besides, nothing is more refreshing and better for the heart than to walk through an UK bluebell wood in spring. That will be holiday enough for me

Ally Pally Snowman
14 March 2020 09:38:26


 


 


As of yesterday we had tested 32771 people. We had been testing approx 1500 per day and that has now increased to 2288 on the 12th and 3007 on the 12th.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


We are testing loads more than other similar countries. France, Germany,  Japan and USA to name a few.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
14 March 2020 09:40:10


 


I haven't been abroad for yonks, the idea of going to the far east would fill me with dread.


Besides, nothing is more refreshing and better for the heart than to walk through an UK bluebell wood in spring. That will be holiday enough for me


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


You’ve made this point before and I can’t understand why anyone wouldn’t want to see other countries and experience different cultures. Each to their own however and it’d be boring if we were all the same. 


But yes this Easter a UK bluebell wood is far more appealing for obvious reasons. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
bowser
14 March 2020 09:42:33
Always been a good guy to listen to since he started commentating on covid19 back in January.... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0PbRV2Md8Ew&fbclid=IwAR1H4qWNr-0NV-daIpABhEo-r3JJZU-ey-4cYYjssLCOh9f9qKSuyKRoUQw

My take: there are no easy answers and no single approach is necessarily the correct one. By implication those Asian countries that seem to have it under control now could face a 2nd wave later in the year...
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 09:55:27


 


You could be right but once it is past it's peak world wide the mood will change. Probably...


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


I've got savings to fall back on but as ever those like me will have to bail out the feckless. Unlike most people I don't mind that.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


You really don’t understand the business model of the airline business. They have very high fixed costs: aircraft have to be paid for, staff have to be paid. If you stop flying all you save are fuel, overflying and landing fees and some minor variable costs.


Further, we’re moving into the northern hemisphere summer season when travel increases: more flights, higher load factors, higher prices.


Further...  most airlines lose money from October to March and rely on the other months for their profit; including Easter.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
14 March 2020 09:56:18


 


No, but if the vector of the virus stays in one place, the virus is contained in that place too.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


And closing borders slows the infection rate reducing the intense pressure on healthcare systems.


Anyway, the nation states of Europe are reasserting their borders right now and the EU is as impotent as the Wizard of Oz.


P.S.


New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern imposes 14-day quarantine on anyone entering the country from Sunday


- makes perfect sense for an island nation with few cases. The UK is in a different ball game now, since we already have exponential domestic spread.

New world order coming.
Ulric
14 March 2020 10:01:54


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Lean business practices and "just in time" delivery have served to remove surplus inventory and thus, resilience, from every aspect of the global economy.

"As soon as we abandon our own reason, and are content to rely on authority, there is no end to our troubles." - Bertrand Russell
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Devonian
14 March 2020 10:02:49


 


You really don’t understand the business model of the airline business. They have very high fixed costs: aircraft have to be paid for, staff have to be paid. If you stop flying all you save are fuel, overflying and landing fees and some minor variable costs.


Further, we’re moving into the northern hemisphere summer season when travel increases: more flights, higher load factors, higher prices.


Further...  most airlines lose money from October to March and rely on the other months for their profit; including Easter.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Correct .


I guess the argument is how much grain you should store in case of famine.

nsrobins
14 March 2020 10:03:39


 


And closing borders slows the infection rate reducing the intense pressure on healthcare systems.


Anyway, the nation states of Europe are reasserting their borders right now and the EU is as impotent as the Wizard of Oz.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Indeed - where is the EU in all of this? No guidance or leadership from the all powerful Brussels autocracy. Interesting.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Devonian
14 March 2020 10:05:15


 


Lean business practices and "just in time" delivery have served to remove surplus inventory and thus, resilience, from every aspect of the global economy.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


True, but isn't it done to increase profits?


So, where have those profits gone? I think we know where.

nsrobins
14 March 2020 10:05:57


 


Correct .


I guess the argument is how much grain you should store in case of famine.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


For centuries communities survived by keeping adequate grain stores, as insurance against a long winter season, plague or siege.


One thing CVD might expose is the fragility of the get it now and pay later economy.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
14 March 2020 10:07:54
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 10:20:50
Those who think the UK government is taking the right approach should read The Times today. It is very balanced. However, some high profile critics are emerging. For example, Richard Horton, editor of the Lancet. Also the WHO have been critical apparently and some other countries are angered by Britain's strategy.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
14 March 2020 10:22:19

Those who think the UK government is taking the right approach should read The Times today. It is very balanced. However, some high profile critics are emerging. For example, Richard Horton, editor of the Lancet. Also the WHO have been critical apparently and some other countries are angered by Britain's strategy.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There are always going to be experts with different opinions. Apparently, one of the emergency powers the government is seeking next week, is one to keep schools open. They must be getting strong advice that closing schools is a mistake.

New world order coming.
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