But take this together with the total pptn forecast and you get about one snowflake per sq foot?

Depends. Optimal flow & optimal alignment would bring in -12/-13 isotherm, thats only 1 degree off the BFTE 2018 so if that was to occur then heavy snow showers would be the order of the day.

But thats a long long way away, at the very least winds swing northerly at day 6> 7 introducing much colder air circa -7c- after that theres a moderate chance of Easterlies > depth TBC

Still plenty of snow in Lapland. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20200313164650_20200313&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Rovaniemi&uc=&ucr=Finland&ud=Car%20buried%20in%20the%20snow&lat=51.8&lon=-0.6

Quite a cold cluster of ENS appearing of sub -10c @ 850hpa from 21st March - be interesting to see what the 18z ENS show:

Jet loping around for the coming week, splitting into N and S branches either side of UK by Sat 21st and cut-off low over Europe; looping back again a week later. UK gets a N-ly flow from the loop pattern on Sat 21st and again from Sat 28th.

GFS' current version of HP is to place it over S England on Tue 17th, meandering N-wards to centre over Scotland 1040mb Sat 21st and off to Baltic by Thu 26th. This fades but new centre 1050 mb Iceland Mon 26th. This with LP over France, gives a period of N/NE/E  winds from Sat 21st onwards. ECM the same to Sat 21st but no LP over France and new westerly flow over Scotland by Tue 24th

ENS runs mild--xool-mild to 19th Mar, then definitely cold around Mon 23rd with many runs 10C below normal, recovering to normal or a bit below by Mon 30th. Occasional rain but not much; snow row figures quite high for E coast for a couple of days around Sun 22nd but not much depth of pptn - local snow showers only?

The cold looks pretty nailed on next weekend.  There will be snow showers in prone eastern locations.  If the uppers get below -12 we could be looking at accumulations of snow over the hills.  I did not hold back in my view expressed earlier in the winter that the coldest part would be the end, and this year the very end of astronomical winter looks like being the coldest.  This will be reflected in the CET at the month's end.

Looking colder next weekend for sure and if the ECM and GFS verify snow showers would be the order of the day, particularly the SE.

HOWEVER

UK at 144 does not model the incoming easterly in quite the same way and could actually turn out fairly springlike if that little low undercuts the HP cell to bring in some very mild air,

GEM would bring a lovely fine and sunny weekend with average daytime maxes with any real cold stuff edging into Europe.

yes - the GFS has been the better model at times this winter, but I do wonder if it will be as good modelling this blocked pattern as effectively as the westerly zonal mush we have  'enjoyed' this winter. If it is right, we can expect our winter to begin in our spring and might see mornings with snow lying, just to melt by 10.00am as the sun rises, but it could mean some dry, bright sunny fare and frosty nights, so nothing not to like there. If it tilts a little like ECMF then, cold could turn to spring very quickly - all much more fun to discuss than I-Corona (can't get that song out of my head)!! Winter has been misery enough, especially after all that Brexit botheration, so let's hope the 'C - V' is the third and last bad event for a decent period, and we might get a waft of delightful crystalline spring snow to set the heart beating a little faster, before the boredom of self isolation and economic gloom descends upon us....perhaps next winter will see the big freeze, just to contradict the enevitable trend - and send the CC deniers off on one....

interesting to see if the dramatic drop off in air travel diminishes global dimming and we see a surge in temps this summer though, but winter will be more about the oceans and cycles than the air temps, but it will still impact....

Temp @ 10hpa right over top of pole is 0c @ 222. Wow! Most SSW temp rises to -15 or up to -10 @ max! What's the record warm stratosphere temp @ 10hpa and could it ever rise above 0c? Also is the onset of a SSW caused by the developing easterly QBO? - Because for the past 3 months or more temperatures have been well below average in the strat which has coincided with a strong PV!? - Can't wait to see the end of this strong PV, fast moving jet and record breaking zonality. Love how the PV has been split!?

I also wonder if some of the models like ECM and GFS are now starting to pick up on this as a troposheric response!?

Remember end of March 2008?

GFS GEFS continues its Easterly theme 

If only this occurred in winter to bring us snow showers and cold fresh continental air! I knew this would happen as soon as Spring starts!

Control colder than OP, but a group going for -11 for a few days.

It’s understandably not the ramping frenzy you might expect in February with this, but it’s definitely of interest and a surprise or two is possible.

Finally H.P. to look forward to, but it's sod's law with the positioning of the cell that the S.E. quadrant could still get rain or showers coming down from the North Sea. 

GFS a bit slower to develop 'that' HP this morning - still over France on Wed 18th but transferring to Scotland by Fri 20th with weak northerlies , then on to Denmark by  Mon 23rd with strong SE-lies, to Poland on Sat 28th with new LP to the NW of the UK with mild S-ly and finally a sort of col between HP over Scandi and Span. The exact location is going to make a big difference to temps and the forecast of its position is far from settled.

ECM similar but inclines to more E-ly than N-ly

GEFS mild on Wed 18th, cold on Sat 21st - some runs v.cold but mean 'only' 5C below normal and recovering to normal by Wed 25th onwards. However, a notably broad scatter (esp in the S) 21st-25th reflecting uncertainty above. Dry on the whole but the N has a spike on Thu 19th

totally agree, it's all down to fine margins on the high's location, could be anything from dryish freezer to dryish Spring warmth, and all points in between. Possibly well get all of it as the HP wobbles around, but I think the models had over played the cold and  all we'll see is a couple of frosty mornings and then gradual warming up from there.

Still all to play for today if you fancy a last grasp at winter esp in the SE
UKMO very cold & many GEFS ens very cold as well
PTB 1 is almost identical to UKMO 144 which then goes onto developing a deep upper air cold pool to the East moving over the UK at 180

I'll take anything to drive the CET figure down for this month.