That could make sense, but how does it tie up with the herd immunity strategy? 

The reality is though without a vaccine that may be the only way to go and let nature run its course,which it will now do irrespective of what action is taken I can`t see other than indroducing marshall law, any other way without a vaccine,if not in the first wave then in the second wave. Personally I would rather get it sooner than later!!

It's your opinion WI, and not an expert one at that. The same goes for everyone else in here. I don't doubt the people in charge are incompetent, we've all seen Boris after all. This does not extend to our scientists and experts who are advising.

There will be a political element in this, there has to be. On this unprecedented occasion though, it is rooted in science and the honest desire to keep the country and its services as stable as possible. 

As many have already stated, the success of our strategy depends on how well we get the balance right. I have faith in our experts, because I choose to. I also respect there are other experts with equally valid opinions who see the situation and it's potential solutions differently.

Time will tell, but I think your hatred for the Tory party is clouding your normally balanced views 🙂

 

so much for the French ski resorts telling people it’s business as usual and still to come on their holidays this weekend...

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We shouldn't confuse the European 'lockdowns' with what had happened in Wuhan. With a few exceptions, people in Wuhan were forced to stay inside their homes (flats). This is not what is happening in Italy, Greece, France, Spain etc. They are just closing shops etc. in order to flatten the infection peak.

Arguably this could also mean that the European measures will be less effective than in Wuhan or that they will take longer to work.

Without being morbid or flippant I was discussing with a colleague yesterday that this whole situation will fuel a massive amount of research and will greatly inform scientists and medics in the future as how to, and possibly how not to, handle certain types of pandemics. Unfortunately that time is not and cannot be yet.

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Those not in the vulnerable category still get the disease and build up immunity.

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This is a very good point . A Wuhan style lockdown isn't possible in western Europe but I think we will probably have to tell everybody to stay at home and not go to work at some point. 

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I meant the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants. 

Easter is peak time for the ski resorts - will (from an environmental only perspective) be interesting to see the Alps in pristine condition without snow machines, chair lifts in operation and pistes in action.

I have already seen an air pollution analysis for northern Italy - if nothing else, the lockdown is creating a clean air environment.

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I would prefer that they remain open. I would presume that the government will plan for a range of measures and will only tighten the screw if it becomes necessary.

Peston's piece probably lacks the refinement of the real thing - the government is bringing forward emergency legislation to allow them to do these things - but what they actually do and when, will be decided in real time.

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Apologies if I repeat something someone else has said or regurgitate a pointbslready made, but I've been busy the past couple of days and thus thread develops faster than a Covid hotspot. 

I see Sinn Fein have labelled the stance taken by the UK government as subjecting us all to a "twisted medical experiment" and that we should get angry with the "bast*rds" forcing this upon us.

I broadly agree with thegeneral stance of the Govt on this, but would love there to be a massive backlash from the same ignorant, we-know-better-than-so-called-experts masses who voted for Brexit and who launched this malevolent shitstain and his eggheaded Rasputin into power. 

Stockpilers are now really pissing me off. It's hit, at certain shops: pasta, pasta sauces, teabags, eggs, milk, nappies, baby wipes, bleach, anti-bacterial wipes,etc - as well as the toilet rolls, soap, hand gel, paracetamol. Was talking to the checkout girl in Aldi and they told me a woman had kicked off in the morning as they wouldn't let her buy eight 24-packs of toilet rolls. Apparently, Morrisons are selling 5 million toilet rolls a day. FFS.

 

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They might well be but as a country we turned left at the junction and it seems everyone else went right 

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I haven't seen this new paper, but an interesting summary here

Researchers found that the average serial interval for the novel coronavirus in China was approximately four days. This also is among the first studies to estimate the rate of asymptomatic transmission.

Meyers and her team examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus, known as pre-symptomatic transmission. According to the paper, more than 1 in 10 infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick.

Previously, researchers had some uncertainty about asymptomatic transmission with the coronavirus. This new evidence could provide guidance to public health officials on how to contain the spread of the disease.

“This provides evidence that extensive control measures including isolation, quarantine, school closures, travel restrictions and cancellation of mass gatherings may be warranted,” Meyers said. “Asymptomatic transmission definitely makes containment more difficult.”

“Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,

And sorry I could not travel both...
 
...I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”

 
Whether that is for better or worse we don’t know know at the moment.
 
(With thanks to the late great Robert Frost)

 
 

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When I read posts like this, I feel it calls into question our strategy. Particularly the idea of easing the strain on our NHS.

Should we go into lockdown, it won't be a Wuhan-style lockdown, as others have rightly pointed out. Our curve may flatten but as we've seen with Italy the cases will still rise significantly and it worries me that there is little we can do, even with control measures put into place (a - they won't be strict enough or, b - our public won't follow them strictly enough) we will see catastrophic effects on our services.

What do others think?

Exactly that and give some breathing space 

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In some parts of Italy it has actually slowed the reported cases , granted its only a small % but it seems to have helped 

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I'm with you on that , the government are only looking at stopping large gathering because of what Sport has done , they have been caught out 

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As a group we turnover £500 million but it could well hit us all in the group very hard as we are 90% European based 

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45 store/shop owners were arrested in Greece for opening their stores during the first day of the ban. They get a hefty fine and a criminal record.

 

Let's hope so, Peter.

Until a fortnight ago I wasn't especially concerned about this virus. However, ever since the government's announcement on 2nd March that the virus was likely to affect the UK pretty widely, I have been getting ever more concerned. Not so much for myself but for my parents who are in their 70s, and a few other elderly relatives I have.

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My Spidey Sense would say that the WHO advice will gravitate toward UKGOV position over time rather than vice-versa.

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I find it quite amazing how many of these lockdowns/border closures/flight bans are (supposedly) ending in just a few weeks it could take the likes of Italy & Spain at least another 2 to 4 weeks before they start and see sufficient falls to start and reopen properly then you've got Northern Europe and the UK who are probably a month or so behind (longer in the UK if the modeling is right) all seems very optimistic from many Governments.