And the previous post was my positive, can do message.

 

Excellent post! 

The problem is, making 60m+ of anything (tests, vaccines) will take an enormous amount of time.

I don’t see any way out of this before the end of the year and frankly that is hard for my brain to compute!

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However long the lockdown, the one certainty is that I will still not manage to clear out and tidy my shed.

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 don't be so certain Nick.

 

You may have time, but will the tip be open.

I am looking at this time to have a darn good clear out (In the domestic sense) and almost start again.

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We now have 5 in the business off self isolating , be shutting the doors at this rate 

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Something jogged in my memory when I mentioned ‘war footing’ earlier. My job takes (or did) me up and down the roads of the UK and in the last few weeks I’ve seen many more military convoys than normal. Last Friday the Longmoor Camp on the A3 was noticeably busy with trucks and personnel.
Might be just a coincidence?

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Four epidemiologists from Harvard and Boston:

The direction of the UK Government strategy on the COVID-19 pandemic must change immediately to prevent catastrophe

https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5jqdmsxgwrjz6v/ICU_beds.pdf

Can you give it a rest for once?

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They estimate that on current HMG strategy at the peak 8,610 people aged 20-40 years old in the UK will require IC treatment, which is double the current ICU capacity.

 

If only either were that simple. My poor grandson was over the moon last week after being offered a place at Bristol University. He has been working like mad because he needs a grade higher in two subjects than his predicted grades. If  they use them as entrance criteria he will be distraught. A friend's son left suicide notes last year after failing the interview for Cambridge.

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All Horse racing in the UK suspended from tomorrow until the end of April

Euro 2020 delayed until 2021

Norges Fotballforbund

UEFA har bestemt at EM utsettes til 2021. Det skal spilles fra 11. juni til 11. juli neste år. Mer informasjon kommer.

UEFA has decided that the European Championship is postponed until 2021. It will be played from 11. June to 11. July next year. More information is coming.

 

https://twitter.com/nff_info/status/1239888676517273601

I just wonder how much role British exceptionalism has played into this. At least though our epidemiology experts have now changed their official advice to HMG, but I guess that won't prevent them from being dragged into future Inquiries.

They aren't in the same boat really though, depending on what is decided. It's a similar dilemma to the football leagues with regard to promotion and relegation, although of course of much greater importance. As I said above, some will have University places based on grades that they may or may not have achieved in their 'S' levels. Some would have done worse in their actual A levels and some better than predicted.

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Breaking: The Foreign Office is advising against all non-essential foreign travel for an initial period of 30 days.

A professor at Yale University who specialises in research on social networks and contagion, calls school closures “one of the most beneficial ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ that can be employed, more effective even than reactive quarantines or banning of public gatherings,” in part because “parents also stay home as a result”

Our experts now agree, so I think it's just a matter of time.

Year 13 is the big one because if this cohort do not go to University in October, HE funding collapses... unless the govt underwrite/provide those funds. I don't know what the solution will be to this.

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The Queen isn't getting any younger...

An announcement will be made today I expect. Something along the lines of "schools must close by Friday this week at the latest". Most parents will have their kids at home from Thursday at the latest.

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Think we need some form of 'conscription'

Anyone who has tested positive and then negitive for COVID should be drafted into public service according to their skill set. Medical students should be sent to work in the NHS for example.

 

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I am speaking to my contact who works in a school. They had 160 pupils off yesterday.

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​London faces new coronavirus clampdown in bid to limit outbreak deaths

Quote

Ministers are ready to order a “harder” London-specific clampdown soon on socialising to limit deaths from a looming surge in coronavirus cases. Plans are being drawn up for regional responses to a spiralling Covid-19 epidemic which is already starting in the capital amid fears that hospitals will struggle to cope.

An urgent review of whether to close schools is being carried out. So far the advice has been to avoid such a move, but if it were to happen it is most likely to be imposed in London first. Italian and French-style lockdowns have also not been ruled out but the Government has so far shied away from taking such draconian, economy-crippling steps. 

The outbreak in the UK is now heavily concentrated in London. As of yesterday, 480 out of 1,543 confirmed cases were in the capital, with a further 173 in the South East. 

In a sign of the huge pressure on health services, the London Ambulance Service had its busiest day ever yesterday. LAS chief executive Garrett Emmerson said: “We are seeing unprecedented demand for both our 999 and 111 services at the moment.

Yesterday was the busiest day ever for our 999 service with nearly 8,000 calls. Unfortunately, the huge volumes of 111 calls we are receiving from people who could potentially use the website nhs.uk/coronavirus means that more vulnerable Londoners who may not have the ability to access the internet, for instance older people, are struggling to get through.” 

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/london-coronavirus-clampdown-covid-19-a4389451.html

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That was when I was calling for travel restrictions - proper travel restrictions at the time would have reduced the spread and intensity of epidemics.

People quote Italy travel ban on China not working - but of course it didn't because Italy is in Schengen - either all Schengen zone should have stopped all flights to and from China, or all member countries should have done so.

The WHO was behind the curve too - they did not recommend the kind of travel and holiday restrictions required at the time, including (and I am not sorry to bang on about this) recommended that all cruises should have stopped in January (certainly in the Far East).

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