If it's two weeks I wonder if anyone has considered this kind of approach.

Instead of all the other options (purple, orange, green). What about an oscilating approach? Flick the curfews on and off (while still keeping a base line of social distancing) to produce the blue curve.

Here’s how > Prof Neil Ferguson, head of modelling programme at Imperial’s MRC centre for global infectious disease analysis: “We’ve had bad news from Italy & from early experience in UK hospitals that the intensive care requirements will be nearly twice what we had anticipated” https://t.co/e9Yj55RM2R

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 17, 2020

New cases could start to fall in two to three weeks

Could new #COVID19 cases start to decline in two to three weeks?

"Yes" @UKScienceChief says, adding that we should expect the various measures taken by the UK govt to have a "very significant impact" on the #coronavirus peak.

More here 👉 https://t.co/ciG0YHNOQ1 pic.twitter.com/lEardXwul9

— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 17, 2020

So essentially have 'quarantine holidays'. Designate the first week every two months a 'holiday' where people are expected to socially distance themselves but the harshest measures relax.

This will alieviate the burden of locking down for several months while hopefully keeping things at a relatively low level.

People who want to be informed and they don't easily get stressed should read the updated modelling advice and guidance from the team at Imperial. This is the team that is advising SAGE & HMG.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Meanwhile in Iran (according to the Telegraph):

"Iran's state television has issued its most drastic warning so far about the new coronavirus, saying the outbreak could kill "millions" in the Islamic Republic if the public keeps traveling and ignoring health guidance.

A state television journalist, who also is a medical doctor, gave the warning only hours after hard-line Shiite faithful the previous night pushed their way into the courtyards of two major shrines that had just been closed over fears of the virus. Meanwhile, Iran's supreme leader issued a religious ruling prohibiting "unnecessary" travel in the country.

Roughly nine out of 10 of the over 18,000 cases of the new virus confirmed across the Middle East come from Iran, where authorities denied for days the risk the outbreak posed. "

Well it is a Chinese virus. If they weren't so blase as regards wild animals being kept in appalling conditions this might not have happened.

That's completely irrelevant! Calling it a Chinese virus puts Asian people under risk of attack around the world. Many Spanish people had been attacked 100 years ago because of the name 'Spanish flu', even though we now think that virus had probably originated from a pig farm in the US and brought into Europe by American soldiers.

We also don't even know yet the true origin of this coronavirus, nothing has been proven yet.

"Worried Wells" scared off by CO-19? It's an ill wind, Saint.

R.

NHS to cancel all routine surgery from April 15 for three months.

As many patients as possible to be send home.

aim is to free up a third of 100k beds in England

— Chris Smyth (@Smyth_Chris) March 17, 2020

It's even worse Justin, over the last week or so EU27 health ministers and experts have been having daily meetings, where their Italian colleagues update them with all the latest data and forecasts. This is what has made several European countries to initiate immediate shutdowns.

We rely on our world class expertise and modelling of course.

I think the NHS will manage to more than double the number of ICU beds, perhaps even triple it if necessary.

The problem will be the concentration of admissions.

Increasingly academic unfortunately, but we'll see.

JFF model with today's data.

These are daily cases. Still extremely volitile but will become less so as we get more data.

6,337 tests in the 24hrs the positive rate is 6.42% 

It is our highest number of tests in a single 24hr period with the highest daily rise in confirmed case.

Percentage wise it's our 5th highest

1. 9.16% - March 15th


2. 6.92% - March 13th


3. 6.87% - March 14th


4. 6.83% - March 11th


5. 6.42% - March 17th

Discussed this with Brian yesterday - he is leaving packages unopened and untouched for 24 hours.

Is there a better idea?

The real problem comes with foodstuffs, like the milk we get delivered and the online shopping many people use - you cannot leave food unopened.

With the packages, surely all you need to do is wash your hands after opening.

Re what is hinted at in that document where short term immunity is referenced. Lots of effort going into looking at that and the likelihood of re-acquisition (not through mutation), which obviously has a potential impact on vaccine suitability.

Leave them for 48 hours in the warmest part of the room (it can be 40C right next to the radiator)

Disinfect the outside with spray where possible

Cook all food

The UK tested more and more widely than any other country in Europe (until Italy woke up to its problem of course, when they started testing like crazy).

What should come back to haunt HMG is lack of early travel restrictions and advice against taking holidays in affected regions.

Again we should remember that the UK is actually well ahead of the rest of Europe in this regard. It's also the reason we are behind other countries in terms of the epidemic trajectory.

Our testing continues to ramp up and is still easily the best in Europe with the possible exception of Italy.

Obviously it doesn't come close to SK.

I stopped praising the UK when we moved from 'containment' to 'delay'. Regardless of how the UK is performing during this phase, it's performance during containment was excellent. Perhaps the mistake was moving to delay too early.