UK data past 24hrs

6,491 tests - 1,427 confirmed as positive (21.98%)

1427 new cases almost exactly in line with the model (1369 predicted) so curve sill being bent wrt confirmed cases.

No big jump yet.

 

---

News from Bangladesh:

"Sex workers from one of the world's largest brothels appealed to the Bangladesh government on Monday for emergency funding after a ban on customers to prevent the spread of coronavirus, Reuters reports.

More than 1,500 sex workers are based at the Daulatdia brothel, about 100 km west of Dhaka, which is one of about 12 officially sanctioned brothels in the South Asian country, and receives an estimated 5,000 customers every day.

The government on Friday announced the closure of the brothel - a series of shacks spread over a maze of alleyways - until at least April 5 but promised to give all of the sex workers a package of 30 kgs of rice, $25, and a freeze on rent."

- incredible that it was operating as recently as last Friday under the circumstances.

---

Well that's against expectations on here isn't it 

---

Why the "OMG"? - thankfully, no surge and in line with expectations.

---

The positive rate looks high ~22%. The figures for England today are markedly worse than I was expecting. 

---

3 day periodicity appearing quite robust now.

Again I have no idea why this is. Given only a slight increase in the number of tests today I can only guess that the worst parts of the UK all report on the same day (London?).

 

The model predicts 1447 cases tommorow but based on this 3 day periodicity I'm expecting a drop.

FYI the model does not account for this 3 day periodicity but it doesn't need to, it's a short term fluctuation that I don't care about that much with regards to the modelling. But if we do see a drop tommorow, that's why.

 

---

That's nearly 50% of positive cases in 4 days alone. The death rate is the highest by some margin. I suggest that's starting to surge in my book.

---

Perhaps you could publish the model’s code here or provide a link to it.

---

 

Here is the latest JFF model data (larger image here: https://ibb.co/VTqjjJS)

I haven't changed the model parameters in three days. Note the 3 day periodicity in the actual data. Again I'm not sure why this is, but since it's only a short term fluctuation I'm not interested in attempting to model it.

 

Will the JFF model be wrong? Probably. I have no idea why we are not seeing exponential growth. The data coming out of the UK is just wierd. And it isn't a saturation thing either. Might try some kind of benford's law type analysis to see if there is any evidence of data manipulation going on.

Don't want to be all tin foil hat about this, but it is wierd.

 

---

Not against mine! We've got another 10+ days of general rises to come, as I've kept saying. You can't mistake noise for the overall trend and I would expect the logarithmic curve to continue for several days yet.

---

It's extremely simple. The function looks like this:

 

Y= Aexp ( B(t-t0)**2 + C(t-t0)) + F

 

F is an unphysical parameter, I recommend keeping it at 0.

C is related to the initial R0, I set it at a point where it was clear exponential growth was happening.

B is what bends the function and allows R0 to decline over time. It should be negitive.

 

So really it's not much more than a gaussian type distribution that can be approximated as an exponential at certain points if B is small.

 

---

The death rate is completely skewed for the reasons we have discussed - they are only testing those hospitalised, plus some others.

 

---

That 0.5% Is similar to the German 0.4%. Both are in the 0.5-1% range i read a UK expert expecting the top end death percentage to be.

Correct Darren , you have been expecting a marked increase I will give you that 

---

Not updated yet but the UK will be on a steeper trajectory again I think. 

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

---

To ensure those who absolutely-need-to-travel are able to safely I’m requesting the rail industry ask retired staff including signallers to assist in this great national effort to beat #coronavirusuk. No one should travel unless it's essential. Stay Home, Protect NHS, Save Lives!

___

If those individuals are retired are they not more likely to be in the 'At Risk' category?

---

There's a lot of speculation about an announcement on construction. Hopefully it will be at least partly shut down from tomorrow.

---

Just had a look at comparing the deaths in Spain and Italy. Spain is roughly a week behind Italy and up until 20/03 they were both pretty much in line. However, from then Spain has increased by a greater rate.

---

Not all sites are working. My daughters other half is a ground worker and is on 3 weeks enforced break.

My wife works for a small building company (house developments) in the Buckinghamshire area. Two of their sites have shut down already because the suppliers are closed and they didn't have the materials they need to continue.

So regardless of what the Government dictates, a lot of building sites will be grinding to a halt anyway.

---

83 new deaths in England +37 on yesterday with 27 of the deaths in London 21 of the deaths were at the London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust

Oh, it's all kicking off down here - people using caravans as a cheap place to live are NOT happy, as they're being kicked out!

(They're generally HOLIDAY parks and when buying a caravan you have to give a postcode where you live - your main residence. What people have been doing is giving postcodes of parents, or aunts/uncles etc, then effectively living for 10 months of the year in a cheap caravan - and paying no council tax either. It looks like the chickens are coming home to roost...)

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sheerness/news/stand-off-as-caravan-owners-refuse-to-quit-holiday-park-224398/ 

---

The patients who passed away were aged between 33 and 103 years old all were in vulnerable groups including those with underlying conditions.

A few of the hospitals/trusts with the highest cases are below

• London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust - 21


• Princess Alexandra Hospital - 7 


• Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust - 4


• University Hospitals of Leicester - 4


• Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust - 4

Matt Hancock trying very hard to explain why we must adhere to the rules and stay at home, while failing miserable to address the issues surrounding construction. The advise in coming into direct conflict with reality.

---