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Saint Snow
24 March 2020 21:38:00


Powerful stuff from Cuomo. 


Coronavirus spreading in New York like 'a bullet train'


New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has pleaded for medical supplies, warning Covid-19 is spreading in his state faster than "a bullet train".


"The apex is higher than we thought and the apex is sooner than we thought," Mr Cuomo told reporters on Tuesday.


He said the federal government was not sending enough equipment to combat the crisis, noting the state needs 30,000 ventilators.


New York now has over 25,000 confirmed virus cases and at least 210 deaths.


The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday the US could become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.


"We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the US. So it does have that potential," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.


Mr Cuomo's warning comes as President Donald Trump suggested having the US back in business by early next month.


"We need federal help and we need the federal help now," Mr Cuomo said.


"New York is the canary in the coal mine, New York is happening first, what is happening to New York will happen to California and Illinois, it is just a matter of time."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012048


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Can imagine many of Trump's rancid, superstitious, backward small-town base half being pleased it's affecting big liberal cities like New York and Seattle. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin D
24 March 2020 21:39:39
Unless we get a late update from Spain within the next hour or, so they have seen a reduction in new cases/deaths

New cases  4,749 which is -1,619 on yesterday

New deaths  497 which is -96 on yesterday
Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 21:47:19


Powerful stuff from Cuomo. 


"New York is the canary in the coal mine, New York is happening first, what is happening to New York will happen to California and Illinois, it is just a matter of time."


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not necessarily Mr Cuomo - it all depends on what allows the virus to spread most efficiently.


New York is very densely populated and most city dwellers live in apartment blocks - we already know that apartment blocks are like land-locked cruise ships when it comes to vectoring the virus.


Most people in California on the other hand, live in sprawling suburbs and may therefore not see such a rapid spread.


Illinois - depends whether the people are living in Chicago apartment blocks or the suburbs.


New world order coming.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 21:48:08

Latest comparative trajectory of deaths. Click for larger version.



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 21:51:18


Latest comparative trajectory of deaths. Click for larger version.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Why do they include Iran in those charts? - their figures are even more complete rubbish than most - a 1,000 times over. I trust the stats from South Korea and that is about it.


New world order coming.
ozone_aurora
24 March 2020 21:52:08


 


There can be no effective long term vaccine for a corona virus, that is part of the problem - otherwise we would have developed a vaccine for the common cold instead.


What has happened with the common cold (which is caused by a constantly mutating corona virus) is that humans have learned to tolerate it, even if they don't like the effects. As I have written previously, native Americans lacked any resistance to European diseases and after the Spanish arrived, their numbers were completely decimated.


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/how-europeans-brought-sickness-new-world


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/01/world/european-colonization-climate-change-trnd/index.html


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/european-diseases-left-genetic-mark-native-americans


 


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And yet, a virus is really only a chemical substance (it's only some carbon based acids with a carbon based envelope), really just an extraordinary complex group of chemicals. Its action of invading cells to make copies of itself is really because of chemical reactions, series of such extraordinarily complex reactions that has become some kind of 'intelligence'.

Maybe scientists need to look for alternative ways to combat viruses, a chemical way!

xioni2
24 March 2020 21:52:28


 Why do they include Iran in those charts? - their figures are even more complete rubbish than most - a 1,000 times over. I trust the stats from South Korea and that is about it.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The FT don't care who you trust or don't. 

Gavin D
24 March 2020 21:53:13

Very interesting story in the FT half of the UK may have had corona already

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February"

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a 


 


 



Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 21:53:33


 


The FT don't care who you don't trust or don't. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


In that case, we need to take such charts with a very liberal pinch of salt. They are nothing more than indicative.


New world order coming.
xioni2
24 March 2020 21:57:13


Very interesting story in the FT half of the UK may have had corona already

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I guess that's the equivalent of a GFS18 run (and I am probably being unfair on GFS!)


 

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 22:03:25


 


In that case, we need to take such charts with a very liberal pinch of salt. They are nothing more than indicative.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Yes agreed all the data about this epidemic is dodgy.


But for amateur pundits like us it's all we've got on which to base opinions.


And much more worryingly for govt to base critical decisions.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
JHutch
24 March 2020 22:06:34

Oof, think it might be more than an hour. Tough times for people laid off wanting to claim Universal Credit


 


 



Polar Low
24 March 2020 22:06:53

This has been said before I’m convinced I’ve had it I did say at the time don’t laugh, I’d put a 80% chance (hoping) on it one thing I’m pleased about is I’m glad I didn’t know half as much about it then as I do now.


 




Very interesting story in the FT half of the UK may have had corona already

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February"

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a 


 


 




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 22:07:42


 


There can be no effective long term vaccine for a corona virus, that is part of the problem - otherwise we would have developed a vaccine for the common cold instead.


What has happened with the common cold (which is caused by a constantly mutating corona virus) is that humans have learned to tolerate it, even if they don't like the effects. As I have written previously, native Americans lacked any resistance to European diseases and after the Spanish arrived, their numbers were completely decimated.


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/how-europeans-brought-sickness-new-world


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/01/world/european-colonization-climate-change-trnd/index.html


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/european-diseases-left-genetic-mark-native-americans


 


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The position is more nuanced than you suggest.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 22:12:07


Very interesting story in the FT half of the UK may have had corona already

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February"

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a 


 


 




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I'm deeply sceptical. If this was the case we'd be approaching the holy grail of herd immunity now and we would not be seeing an escalating death rate.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Polar Low
24 March 2020 22:13:07

Yes but we must learn from it we tend to forget pain but not recover totally from death of loved one we can also hope that this threat brings us together in ways that help us to better recognize commonalities: we’re all human, we get sick, and we worry about loved ones. As social creatures, we try to help one another when bad things happen. If that happens, it would be good news that could not have been foreseen before the pandemic.


The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed shortcomings in healthcare systems throughout the world that provide an opportunity to improve them. For example, a faster global response, better and quicker distribution of testing kits, and more coordinated and coherent public messaging should be expected the next time around. (No guarantees, of course.)




 


There can be no effective long term vaccine for a corona virus, that is part of the problem - otherwise we would have developed a vaccine for the common cold instead.


What has happened with the common cold (which is caused by a constantly mutating corona virus) is that humans have learned to tolerate it, even if they don't like the effects. As I have written previously, native Americans lacked any resistance to European diseases and after the Spanish arrived, their numbers were completely decimated.


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/how-europeans-brought-sickness-new-world


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/01/world/european-colonization-climate-change-trnd/index.html


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/european-diseases-left-genetic-mark-native-americans


 


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 22:16:37
This article also suggests that mutation of SARS-Cov2 is very limited and that a signal vaccine may we'll be sufficient.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ozone_aurora
24 March 2020 22:16:47


 


And yet, a virus is really only a chemical substance (it's only some carbon based acids with a carbon based envelope), really just an extraordinary complex group of chemicals. Its action of invading cells to make copies of itself is really because of chemical reactions, series of such extraordinarily complex reactions that has become some kind of 'intelligence'.

Maybe scientists need to look for alternative ways to combat viruses, a chemical way!


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



Anyway, I'll stop rambling now! it's just Chemistry (a greatly underrated science) is my major hobby.

Polar Low
24 March 2020 22:21:23

link not working Peter but I have seen it even if it mutates vaccine development is unlikely to cause a problem.


 



This article also suggests that mutation of SARS-Cov2 is very limited and that a signal vaccine may we'll be sufficient.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 22:34:39


link not working Peter but I have seen it even if it mutates vaccine development is unlikely to cause a problem.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


That's odd. I just clicked on the link and it did work.


Here it is again:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html


 


Just checked and it worked again.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jonesy
24 March 2020 22:57:01
After Christmas I had annoying dry tickly cough which lasted about 3 weeks, no fever just night time sweats at times in bed etc.

If it was Covid-19 back then it must have been a very mild strain because I was with vulnerable people around the time over New Year but did keep my distance.

My Mrs though is asthmatic and even after sharing a bed for the duration she managed to escape it.....so highly likely it wasn't covid-19 but similar.
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
picturesareme
25 March 2020 00:02:27

After Christmas I had annoying dry tickly cough which lasted about 3 weeks, no fever just night time sweats at times in bed etc.

If it was Covid-19 back then it must have been a very mild strain because I was with vulnerable people around the time over New Year but did keep my distance.

My Mrs though is asthmatic and even after sharing a bed for the duration she managed to escape it.....so highly likely it wasn't covid-19 but similar.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Odd dry tickly cough on and off for 2 weeks or so.. did have a day when sense of taste went.. had a couple days when felt like somebody was sitting on chest  and also finding myself out of breath after even brief exertion such as running up stairs. 


The coughing was very much like an allergy type cough dry & tickling of which i put it down to at first, it wasn't deep or chesty, or constant, although it was on and off for 2 weeks.. The sense of taste i took little notice of as i believed i might have been coming down with a cold (few at work had colds) at this point as i also felt a little meh - no temperatures! Cold didn't materialise  The tight chest was dismissed as possible anxiety... it was the  breathless after short exertion that finally had me thinking.. but then it just eased off. Though returning a few days later for a couple days. The nose was at times runny with clear snot but never  blocked. 


 


 

Gavin D
25 March 2020 00:03:08
European round up from the 24th for new cases excluding the UK.

- Spain: 6,922 new cases
- Italy: 5,249 new cases
- Germany: 3,935 new cases
- France: 2,446 new cases
- Switzerland: 1,082 new cases
- Netherlands: 811 new cases
- Austria: 809 new cases
- Belgium: 526 new cases
Retron
25 March 2020 04:19:18


Here’s a situation. 


My Daughter bought her ticket to fly back to the UK from Taiwan this morning. The flight was via Hong Kong as of 4hrs ago Hong Kong has changed its rules and anybody landing must isolate for 14 days even if you are transiting through the airport. 
The only option is to buy yet another ticket to flight straight back to the UK on the last flight out of Taiwan on China Air. What a mess. This will cost her £2,500 in total.


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


It's worth remembering that if you need a one-way long haul ticket, it's always cheaper to book a return (making sure it's a week or more away) and then just not fly back. That will save you £££!


Leysdown, north Kent
roadrunnerajn
25 March 2020 06:31:47


 


It's worth remembering that if you need a one-way long haul ticket, it's always cheaper to book a return (making sure it's a week or more away) and then just not fly back. That will save you £££!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


She has been living in that area for a year and she was due back originally on the 31st March flying with Emirates. On Sunday the UAE stopped all transit flights and from there the fun began. 
It appears all counties are going to close their boarders by Friday except for essential flights.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
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