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xioni2
25 March 2020 12:08:45


Based on the number of people we know or know of, the number of celebrities, etc. that have either tested positive or had Covid-19 like symptoms, what proportion of the UK population would you estimate have been infected so far?


My guess is about 1% - 2%. Of my FB friends, 3 out of 222 have almost certainly had it.


I know there are lots and lots of famous people in the UK when you think about it; but I can think of Prince Charles, Linda Lusardi, Fiona Phillips, Idris Elba, Kirsty Allsopp, Nadine Dorries,... there are some sports people as well and probably others I've forgotten.


So that could imply about a million people?


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Personally, I don't know anyone who had it either having tested positive or having very similar symptoms. I am not on FB though.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
25 March 2020 12:08:55


 


Indeed. Spain doesn't appear on this list:


https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/


Therefore we may be close to flushing another hypothesis down the loo. Smoking rates rarely get mentioned now. BMI is still in play it would seem.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think population density is absolutely key.


Spain has a population density of 93 people per km², giving the impression of a sparsely populated country. Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13% of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together.


In fact, Spain could claim to be the most densely populated major European country by the "lived density" measure.


See https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
25 March 2020 12:12:54

Five more deaths in Wales bringing total to 22



Five further deaths of people who tested positive for coronavirus in Wales have
been reported, taking the total to 22, Public Health Wales said.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
25 March 2020 12:16:17


 I think population density is absolutely key.


Spain has a population density of 93 people per km², giving the impression of a sparsely populated country. Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13% of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together.


In fact, Spain could claim to be the most densely populated major European country by the "lived density" measure.


See https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345


Originally Posted by: RobN 


That's an excellent point, population density is often misunderstood. 'Lived density' is more important and Lombardy also has a very high lived density (probably the highest in Italy). 


I would be very surprised if lived density and apartment living (the two are obviously linked) are not contributing factors in the high numbers of deaths we see in Spain and Italy. Germany and the UK don't have this factor (with some obvious exceptions in England). Also, from experience, many old people live in apartments in the Med countries, something we don't see often here.

Gandalf The White
25 March 2020 12:19:56


 


I bet he didn't have to wait long for the test.


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Given how many people he meets as part of his job I would think it was absolutely essential to know as quickly as possible.


Not to mention his contact with the Queen and Prince Philip.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jonesy
25 March 2020 12:24:44


 


Given how many people he meets as part of his job I would think it was absolutely essential to know as quickly as possible.


Not to mention his contact with the Queen and Prince Philip.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I get that but we also have NHS workers needing the same quick testing.

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
xioni2
25 March 2020 12:30:01

The number of confirmed infections has also started ramping up in Russia (658) especially in Moscow (410). I guess they will go probably go into lockdown too.

Gavin D
25 March 2020 12:32:52

Woman, 21, with no pre-existing conditions dies from coronavirus, family reveal as they pay tribute


"A 21-year-old woman with no pre-existing medical conditions has died from the coronavirus, her family has said. Chloe Middleton is thought to be the youngest victim in the UK to have no underlying medical conditions.


Her mother Diane Middleton posted a heartbreaking tribute to her daughter today on social media. Writing on Facebook Mrs Middleton, who lives in Buckinghamshire said: 'To all the people out there that thinks it's just a virus please think again speaking from a personal experience this so called virus has taken the life of my 21 year old daughter.' 


 


So far in the UK there have been 424 deaths from the virus and 8,077 confirmed cases.  Tributes from across the UK poured in for the young woman who is thought to have attended Wycombe Grange. Her aunt, Emily Mistry confirmed the youngster had 'no underlying health conditions'. She confirmed her niece had died of the virus and said the family is 'shattered beyond belief'." 


 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151117/Woman-21-no-pre-existing-conditions-dies-coronavirus-family-reveal-pay-tribute.html

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
25 March 2020 12:36:32


 


That's an excellent point, population density is often misunderstood. 'Lived density' is more important and Lombardy also has a very high lived density (probably the highest in Italy). 


I would be very surprised if lived density and apartment living (the two are obviously linked) are not contributing factors in the high numbers of deaths we see in Spain and Italy. Germany and the UK don't have this factor (with some obvious exceptions in England). Also, from experience, many old people live in apartments in the Med countries, something we don't see often here.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Also of course New York. 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012048


"With 25,665 cases in New York, the state accounts for more than half of all US infections."


 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_City


"The city has an extremely high population density of 26,403 people per square mile (10,194/km²), about 10,000 more people per square mile than the next densest large American city, San Francisco."

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
warrenb
25 March 2020 12:39:56
Boris squirming around building sites. I bet the Donors will have to cough up after this is over, because they must have lobbied like made.
Tonbridge 45m 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 March 2020 12:58:37

The home where we are taking our respite break is virtually empty because of cancellations, but has been told to hold itself ready if needed in a week or so to receive convalescing coronavirus patients 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
25 March 2020 13:05:46


Based on the number of people we know or know of, the number of celebrities, etc. that have either tested positive or had Covid-19 like symptoms, what proportion of the UK population would you estimate have been infected so far?


My guess is about 1% - 2%. Of my FB friends, 3 out of 222 have almost certainly had it.


I know there are lots and lots of famous people in the UK when you think about it; but I can think of Prince Charles, Linda Lusardi, Fiona Phillips, Idris Elba, Kirsty Allsopp, Nadine Dorries,... there are some sports people as well and probably others I've forgotten.


So that could imply about a million people?


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


We have a WhatsApp group for our street. It has about 65 houses and virtually all are signed up. The age range is quite mixed with some older people and many youngish or middle aged with families. I'd say the education level is well above the national average and we are in a relative "hot spot" for corona. At this stage not one person claims to have had it.  


PS: I hope all the celebs claiming to have had it can offer proof. If not I will suspect a few are simply trying to boost their profiles after having a cold or flu.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
25 March 2020 13:29:54


We have a WhatsApp group for our street. It has about 65 houses and virtually all are signed up. The age range is quite mixed with some older people and many youngish or middle aged with families. I'd say the education level is well above the national average and we are in a relative "hot spot" for corona. At this stage not one person claims to have had it.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.


Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.


 

New world order coming.
John S2
25 March 2020 13:32:49
Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.
Brian Gaze
25 March 2020 13:35:07


 


Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.


Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


No I haven't asked on WhatsApp. I only know that a family who live a few doors away from us went skiing in Austria during February.


Good about your mother-in-law. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
25 March 2020 13:35:48

I reckon the Government is reading this blog - we only discussed this yesterday or the day before :-)


 


"Mr Johnson confirmed ministers are considering asking black taxi drivers to act as a transport service for NHS workers. He made the comment in reply to a question from Charles Walker (Broxbourne) who said there was an "army of black cab drivers in and around London itching to get involved like the Spitfires in 1940"."


 

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
25 March 2020 13:37:24

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.


Originally Posted by: John S2 


The regulations say you can't go for a drive or drive to a location for a walk. Personally I think it would be more beneficial to close all non-essential construction and allow people like you to take a drive. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
warrenb
25 March 2020 13:42:30

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.

Originally Posted by: John S2 


 


Saw the same this morning. Person drove to the lake at the bottom of my road (where we take a daily exercise walk). Police stopped them and told them that driving too a place of exercise is not allowed.

Tonbridge 45m 
Heavy Weather 2013
25 March 2020 13:45:35


 


The regulations say you can't go for a drive or drive to a location for a walk. Personally I think it would be more beneficial to close all non-essential construction and allow people like you to take a drive. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Totally agree Brian. We are letting thousands of builders go to work and spread the virus and yet one person is approached by the police on this manor. It’s outrageous 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
25 March 2020 13:46:50


 


Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.


Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That's excellent news, especially as she's a smoker.


As for the question of how the effect of the virus varies, isn't it the same as the way the impact of the common cold or flu varies from person to person?  I have no idea of the science but it seems clear from experience that people's bodies react differently to the same virus.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ozone_aurora
25 March 2020 13:48:00


 


Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.


Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



I'm glad your daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery.

I wonder if those healthy young sufferer actually have some over-reactive immune response, lie cytokine storm.

ozone_aurora
25 March 2020 13:49:10

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.

Originally Posted by: John S2 


I'm sorry to hear this. I understand the need for lockdown, but there's no need for the police to be rude!

Gandalf The White
25 March 2020 13:49:51


 


Totally agree Brian. We are letting thousands of builders go to work and spread the virus and yet one person is approached by the police on this manor. It’s outrageous 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


But there isn't a blanket ban on going out; they're trying to find a balance between need and risk. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
25 March 2020 13:51:51



I'm sorry to hear this. I understand the need for lockdown, but there's no need for the police to be rude!


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


I didn't interpret that as rudeness?  Being 'stern' isn't being rude.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
25 March 2020 13:54:00


 


But there isn't a blanket ban on going out; they're trying to find a balance between need and risk. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


So you don’t see thousands of builders packed on tubes as a risk?

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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