Based on the number of people we know or know of, the number of celebrities, etc. that have either tested positive or had Covid-19 like symptoms, what proportion of the UK population would you estimate have been infected so far?

My guess is about 1% - 2%. Of my FB friends, 3 out of 222 have almost certainly had it.

I know there are lots and lots of famous people in the UK when you think about it; but I can think of Prince Charles, Linda Lusardi, Fiona Phillips, Idris Elba, Kirsty Allsopp, Nadine Dorries,... there are some sports people as well and probably others I've forgotten.

So that could imply about a million people?

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Indeed. Spain doesn't appear on this list:

https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/

Therefore we may be close to flushing another hypothesis down the loo. Smoking rates rarely get mentioned now. BMI is still in play it would seem.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 I think population density is absolutely key.

Spain has a population density of 93 people per km², giving the impression of a sparsely populated country. Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13% of them are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per km², rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together.

In fact, Spain could claim to be the most densely populated major European country by the "lived density" measure.

See https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I bet he didn't have to wait long for the test.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Given how many people he meets as part of his job I would think it was absolutely essential to know as quickly as possible.

Not to mention his contact with the Queen and Prince Philip.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

That's an excellent point, population density is often misunderstood. 'Lived density' is more important and Lombardy also has a very high lived density (probably the highest in Italy). 

I would be very surprised if lived density and apartment living (the two are obviously linked) are not contributing factors in the high numbers of deaths we see in Spain and Italy. Germany and the UK don't have this factor (with some obvious exceptions in England). Also, from experience, many old people live in apartments in the Med countries, something we don't see often here.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Based on the number of people we know or know of, the number of celebrities, etc. that have either tested positive or had Covid-19 like symptoms, what proportion of the UK population would you estimate have been infected so far?

My guess is about 1% - 2%. Of my FB friends, 3 out of 222 have almost certainly had it.

I know there are lots and lots of famous people in the UK when you think about it; but I can think of Prince Charles, Linda Lusardi, Fiona Phillips, Idris Elba, Kirsty Allsopp, Nadine Dorries,... there are some sports people as well and probably others I've forgotten.

So that could imply about a million people?

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

We have a WhatsApp group for our street. It has about 65 houses and virtually all are signed up. The age range is quite mixed with some older people and many youngish or middle aged with families. I'd say the education level is well above the national average and we are in a relative "hot spot" for corona. At this stage not one person claims to have had it.  

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.

Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

The regulations say you can't go for a drive or drive to a location for a walk. Personally I think it would be more beneficial to close all non-essential construction and allow people like you to take a drive. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.

Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Have you asked how many went skiing in recent weeks? That appears to be a key determinant for more affluent areas.

Our daughter's mother-in-law is making a good recovery by the way - she is a 70 year old smoker too. Difficult to comprehend why some otherwise healthy people suffer so much and others get over it quickly.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Anyone had a similar experience to this? I live in an urban location. Today I drove [alone] into the countryside along a quiet lane and was stopped by a police vehicle. I was asked where I was going - I had almost reached the remote spot where I was going to park to start a walk. I informed the officer I was about to get my one piece of daily exercise. The officer sternly told me I was a threat to my neighbours by spreading CV around 'his' county. I was informed my registration number had been taken and I would be eligible for a fixed penalty ticket if seen again. The officer also stated that daily exercise was only a 'suggestion' and must commence at my front gate.
Given that walking on hard pavement is bad for my knees - compared to grassy paths, and I have little interest in walking along urban footpaths anyway, it seems that I will be forced into a sedentary lifestyle for months.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Totally agree Brian. We are letting thousands of builders go to work and spread the virus and yet one person is approached by the police on this manor. It’s outrageous 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I'm sorry to hear this. I understand the need for lockdown, but there's no need for the police to be rude!

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 

But there isn't a blanket ban on going out; they're trying to find a balance between need and risk. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White