Every time a report comes out, the peak gets sooner.  

Oh, that's grim

Did they  why they  could no longer supply it ?

Thank you to everybody who’s doing what I’m doing, working from home and stopping the virus spreading from household to household.

We’re going to beat it, and we’re going to beat it together. Stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives. #StayHomeSaveLives

— Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives (@BorisJohnson) March 28, 2020

This sounds like the research report which someone posted the link to a couple of days ago here.

So another week passes and we are still nowhere near 10,000 tests per day let alone 25,000. In fact it appears we have only been able to increase our daily test capacity by between 1000 and 2000 since the crisis started.

Yes. We keep being told by the government we are testing more,  but are still unable exceed the 10k figure. 

They just said the company (Lloyds pharmacy) can't supply it any more Chris. She has enough for the next couple of weeks, but I need to get to Boots. Mustn't lose the bit of paper 'cos GP isn't seeing anyone unless 'emergency' now.

Keep finding local authority cases but not deaths Gavin. Is there somewhere this can be viewed that you know about? Hampshire is constantly at or near the top.

​UK coronavirus news LIVE: Death toll 'to be hugely reduced' by lockdown as testing starts on NHS staff

Quote

 

Britain’s coronavirus death toll is expected to be reduced from 260,000 to 5,700 as a result of the country-wide lockdown, researchers have said. 

Imperial College London experts found the unprecedented curbs on daily life mean fatalities once feared if the previous less restrictive policy had continued should be avoided. It comes as coronavirus tests for NHS frontline staff are trialled this weekend ahead of a wider roll-out.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/uk-coronavirus-news-live-updates-a4400366.html

​

I know there has been discussion about Spain's weak healthcare system. It's worth noting that by outcome (quite an important consideration usually) it ranks higher than the NHS in the European league table.

16 Spain

19 UK NHS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Europe

The patients who died were aged between 33 and 100 years old all had underlying health conditions apart from 13 who were aged between 63 and 99 years old

The 2 trusts with the most deaths were

• Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust recorded 16


• Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals Trust had 15

3 day periodicity coming into effect with a drop today.

Remember the day after tommorow is the 'big jump day'.

Anyway my JFF model seems to be doing a bit better now with the new parameters. The latest stats are:

Total confirmed cases: 109 912

Peak daily confirmed cases: 4837

Day of peak: T-9 days (6th April)

Another reason why I firmly believe the UK lockdown must be tightened immediately comes from the Lancet. We simply can't take the risk of not doing more.

If anyone here doesn't know:

The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is among the world's oldest, most prestigious, and best known general medical journals

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lancet

Offline: COVID-19 and the NHS—“a national scandal”

“When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety.” So wrote one National Health Service (NHS) health worker last weekend. The scale of anger and frustration is unprecedented, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the cause. The UK Government's Contain–Delay–Mitigate–Research strategy failed. It failed, in part, because ministers didn't follow WHO's advice to “test, test, test” every suspected case. They didn't isolate and quarantine. They didn't contact trace. These basic principles of public health and infectious disease control were ignored, for reasons that remain opaque. The UK now has a new plan—Suppress–Shield–Treat–Palliate. But this plan, agreed far too late in the course of the outbreak, has left the NHS wholly unprepared for the surge of severely and critically ill patients that will soon come. I asked NHS workers to contact me with their experiences. Their messages have been as distressing as they have been horrifying. “It's terrifying for staff at the moment. Still no access to personal protective equipment [PPE] or testing.” “Rigid command structures make decision making impossible.” “There's been no guidelines, it's chaos.” “I don't feel safe. I don't feel protected.” “We are literally making it up as we go along.” “It feels as if we are actively harming patients.” “We need protection and prevention.” “Total carnage.” “NHS Trusts continue to fail miserably.” “Humanitarian crisis.” “Forget lockdown—we are going into meltdown.” “When I was country director in many conflict zones, we had better preparedness.” “The hospitals in London are overwhelmed.” “The public and media are not aware that today we no longer live in a city with a properly functioning western health-care system.” “How will we protect our patients and staff…I am speechless. It is utterly unconscionable. How can we do this? It is criminal…NHS England was not prepared…We feel completely helpless.”

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext

The Midlands and surrounding areas have seen another sharp rise in new deaths

• University Birmingham Hospital Trust - 12 


• Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust - 5 


• Shrewsbury and Telford NHS Trust - 3 


• Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust - 2


• Dudley NHS Trust - 1


• University North Midlands NHS (Staffs) - 1


• Worcestershire - 1

There must be public inquiry with judicial powers when this is over.

I drove through Dorking earlier today and I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. Long queues outside several shops (supermarkets, newsagents, post offices etc.), people were 1-2m apart, but due to the narrow pavements, other pedestrians were passing much closer to those queuing. It was also obvious that some shops or even estate agents had staff working inside and people were just knocking on the door and were allowed in.

This is not a proper lockdown and many of these people risk causing more premature deaths a few weeks later. The longer this continues, the longer it will take for the peak to occur and the longer the 'lockdown' will last.

Not sure that's true. In fact the opposite is likely to be the case, a sharper peak means an earlier peak.

What is true is that many more people will die.

I don't think we'll get a sharp peak.

Whilst it's important in the name of science, FOI, etc to tell all the negative-sounding facts, I do appreciate the positives; there's a bounty of doom and gloom circulating, from worst-case stats understandably, to armageddon warnings in mostly-dry streams. Probably providing excitement for some, not for all. So thanks Gavin for giving us a hope-line. Might yet not prove to be true, but does help with mental health and certainly in my case the energy to strategically keep going.

Brian, a question -

You keep posting these interesting figures, with minimal comment.  Are you able to take things to the next stage and cast your opinion of the competence of our  government in relation to its strategy and preparedness for COVID-19? 

News of the Coronavirus featured in daily news bulletins from mid January in relation to what was happening in Wuhan, so it was obvious that it was on its way from then.

Not if you drink enough. You kill everything. My friend was an alcoholic for 30 years (and I'm talking two bottles of vodka some days at its peak) has smoked 40 a day since the age of 14 (now down to 15 a day as he has COPD!) and is 75 now. Not a well 75 it must be said! He also survived a brain hemorrhage!

I think genetics and luck play the biggest part in our survival chances. Healthy living just adds a few years to the predetermined destiny.

Yeah but Q, Gov threw in its trump card to flatten, and temporally extend, that peak to reduce NHS burdens at any one time. I still can't work out if this (the switch to more restrictive measures) was truly the poised-to-react position when needed, or whether it was a panic-driven change of tactics.