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Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:01:31
The 367 patients who died in England were ALL in hospital. The data for those who've died outside of hospital is still to be released.
xioni2
31 March 2020 14:05:23

It's this, which needs to come down. It's a much more accurate statistic as it doesn't care for the lack of testing.


Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 14:05:51


 


Even allowing for the inconsistencies of the daily numbers, I think it's difficult for the 'daily peak' to be below 500. Hopefully the peak will occur within the next 2 weeks or so. At the moment hospital admissions double every 4 days or so, which is pretty bad.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Imperial were saying the daily peak would be 260 a few days ago. The problem is no one really knows what the UK is reporting. It's possible today's figures have been artificially inflated by a batch of deaths that took place 10 days ago. The reporting really is poor IMO. The only thing worse than no stats is poor stats as someone high up in the government might have said.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
31 March 2020 14:07:48


 Imperial were saying the daily peak would be 260 a few days ago. The problem is no one really knows what the UK is reporting. It's possible today's figures have been artificially inflated by a batch of deaths that took place 10 days ago. The reporting really is poor IMO. The only thing worse than no stats is poor stats as someone high up in the government might have said.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I agree about the reporting, but epidemiological modelling can also be quite poor. My neighbour virologist was fuming about it.

Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:13:57
PM Boris Johnson is expected to leave self-isolation on Friday 7-day's since he tested positive. Boris had mild symptoms and those symptoms haven't changed.
Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 14:16:14

The fascist idiot in Brazil has been spouting more dangerous nonsense:


Bolsonaro made the unfounded claim that hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug touted by US President Donald Trump, was totally effective in treating Covid-19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615


 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
noodle doodle
31 March 2020 14:20:01
It might have been mentioned on here, but hundreds died in Iran after drinking methanol as a rumour spread it could protect against corona.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-coronavirus-methanol-drink-cure-deaths-fake-a9429956.html 




Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:20:07

13 new deaths in the North East and North Yorkshire



  • Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 4 

  • South Tees Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 3 

  • York Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 3

  • South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust - 1

  • Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust - 1 

  • Harrogate and District NHS Foundation Trust - 1

Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 14:22:04

One thing I've not heard mentioned is the weather in the UK this week is pretty much ideal for spreading the virus according to Chinese studies. It apparently thrives in low humidity and temperatures of between 5C and 11C. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
31 March 2020 14:28:39

We really need to see the number of deaths in Italy to start falling next week, otherwise we are fcked (they just passed 3 weeks since their lockdown).


 

fairweather
31 March 2020 14:28:41


English death toll rises by 367 to 1,651


Sounds like a huge amount but the UK's stats are all over the place so I wouldn't read much into it. Likewise if they go down markedly tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The irony in comparison with consecutive GFS model runs can't be escaping you


S.Essex, 42m ASL
westv
31 March 2020 14:30:23


 


The irony in comparison with consecutive GFS model runs can't be escaping you


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


But is it on a knife edge?


At least it will be mild!
fairweather
31 March 2020 14:35:03


 


But is it on a knife edge?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Same world I'm afraid - more runs needed 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:38:02
7 of the deaths announced today were in Leeds the patients all died between 5pm on Sunday March 29th and 5pm on Monday March 30th

Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:44:05
3,009 new cases from 8,240 tests
Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 14:47:13

3,009 new cases from 8,240 tests

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


36.5% again.


Any news on why only 8240 tests were done?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
31 March 2020 14:48:10


We really need to see the number of deaths in Italy to start falling next week, otherwise we are fcked (they just passed 3 weeks since their lockdown).


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Indeed. But they extended their problem when they pre-announced a lockdown in Lombardy causing much flight to the south which is now picking up the cases as the north relents.


Similar problem in India where the "lockdown" there has caused mass exodus to the hinterlands.


New world order coming.
Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:54:13
Average deaths since last Monday including today in the UK is 202
JHutch
31 March 2020 14:58:56

Reports that a 12 year old girl has died from Coronavirus in Belgium. Not thought to have underlying conditions.

Gavin D
31 March 2020 14:59:38


 


36.5% again.


Any news on why only 8240 tests were done?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


No Idea. It's clear the government lied again though on Sunday. They clearly said they'd done 10,000 tests...

Saint Snow
31 March 2020 15:04:11


 


Just change the name of National Insurance to Health Insurance and add a few percent.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


The problem with that is that NI isn't paid by everyone - it's only 'earned income' that qualifies. Unearned income - dividends, pensions, capital gains, other investment income, etc - isn't NI'able.


The key problem is that too much income in this country escapes being taxed, do that those who do pay tax have a higher relative taxation load to bear and public services are starved of income.


I fail to see how a health insurance scheme based on people paying a proportion of their income would alleviate this problem.


The second issue is that NI technically doesn't fund the NHS. It's supposed to fund the welfare state including pensions. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 15:04:24

 


No Idea. It's clear the government lied again though on Sunday. They clearly said they'd done 10,000 tests...


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Hopefully it will be raised at today's briefing. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
31 March 2020 15:07:17


 


Even allowing for the inconsistencies of the daily numbers, I think it's difficult for the 'daily peak' to be below 500. Hopefully the peak will occur within the next 2 weeks or so. At the moment hospital admissions double every 4 days or so, which is pretty bad.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I think the daily figures are so variable that it would be better to look at a rolling average over three or four days. I’d be hopeful that that figure could stay below 500/day.


 


In other news my work colleague who went down with symptoms last week appears to be on the mend and may be back working from home tomorrow. She hasn’t been tested AFAIK. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
xioni2
31 March 2020 15:14:58


I think the daily figures are so variable that it would be better to look at a rolling average over three or four days. I’d be hopeful that that figure could stay below 500/day.


In other news my work colleague who went down with symptoms last week appears to be on the mend and may be back working from home tomorrow. She hasn’t been tested AFAIK. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, I agree that a moving average is better, the daily figures are mostly noise. The trend is clear though.


I also had good news from my friend in London, he is getting better. 

Gandalf The White
31 March 2020 15:16:28


The fascist idiot in Brazil has been spouting more dangerous nonsense:


Bolsonaro made the unfounded claim that hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug touted by US President Donald Trump, was totally effective in treating Covid-19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615


 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


He’s a bigger fool than Trump; something I thought quite difficult to achieve 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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