Think we discussed the guy who said this really wished he hadn't, and was just trying to show a bit of positivity. Others around him were quick to say we should not become complacent and said this will go on for some time yet.

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

Daily confirmed Cases - 4,324 (+1,315)

Patients Recovered - 135 (no change) - Current daily high for recovered patients 42 (22/03) - Data will be updated in due course a new system is in development.

Total UK deaths - 2,352 (+563)

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Birmingham: 734


2. Hampshire: 652


3. Surrey: 571


4. Sheffield: 541


5. Brent: 506


6. Hertfordshire: 480


7. Southwark: 474


8. Barnet: 468


9. Lambeth: 462


10. Kent: 455

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Rutland: 4


• Kingston upon Hull, City of: 14


• Isle of Wight: 14


• Hartlepool: 15


• North Lincolnshire: 23


• North East Lincolnshire: 23


• Darlington: 24


• Blackburn with Darwen: 25


• Blackpool: 27


• Swindon: 31

​​​​​​​Regional data

• London - 8,341 (+1,220)


• Midlands - 4,139 (+569)


• South East - 3,108 (+683)


• North East and Yorkshire - 2,829 (+481)


• North West - 2,413 (+281)


• East of England - 1,841 (+209)


• South West - 1,085 (+119)

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today for new cases and up to 5pm yesterday for new confirmed coronavirus deaths. Not all deaths occurred in the 24hr period.

I am fairly certain that what he said was that the rate of increase had stabilised, ie was not climbing.

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The regional variation is quite marked: 
SE 28%; NE/Yorkshire 20%; London & Midlands 16-17%; East & SW only 12-13%

Presence/size/number of large cities and population density?

 

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Is it just me but I am sick of the phrase ‘ramping up’...every Govt minister can’t seem to speak without using the phrase or variants of it....it must be the slowest ramp in history! It grates as much as ‘strong and stable’.

 There was an a letter in the Times probably a fortnight ago in which an eminent Doctor or Vet  said his heart sank when he heard Imperial College were heavily involved advice and modelling  of  the Covid19 pandemic. Given their record in the Foot and Mouth i would not believe a word they utter.

I commented earlier about the fact that reporting tends to ignore caveats and footnotes. It was the case here because he put the word ‘but’ immediately after the words ‘green shoots’ and put it into proper context - but everyone just jumped on those two words and ignored the rest.

His actual words, “The number of infections is not rising as rapidly as it once was. So green shoots, but only green shoots and we must not be complacent and we must not take our foot off the pedal."

Were his words ill-judged? I don’t think so taken in context. As you say perhaps just a touch of optimism to give hope that the measures might be starting to yield results.

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Why can this country not manufacture anti body tests a bit quicker? .  The private sector has offered to help but there is a lack of communication. Apparently Thailand have  produced a test in short time and are manufacturing.

I didn't antibody tests were anywhere yet.

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France have reported 4,861 new cases & 509 new deaths

New cases have fallen by 2,717 whilst new deaths have increase by 10

Help from an unlikely source?

From an article in The Telegraph:

"The world’s second-biggest cigarette maker claims to have made a “significant breakthrough” in the race to find a vaccine for the coronavirus and would be ready to start mass production within three months.

British American Tobacco (BAT), the FTSE 100 company behind Lucky Strike and Dunhill, said it could be producing up to 3m million doses of a vaccine a week by June - far faster than rivals, which are expecting to take at least a year.

 BAT intends to start trialling its vaccine in humans as soon as possible. It is running pre-clinical tests and holding urgent talks with US drug authorities to fast-track permissions.

The treatment is being developed by the company's health division Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), which has previously come up with a drug to combat Ebola. It claims to have found an antibody that appears to fight Covid-19, and is manufacturing this using genetically modified tobacco plants...."

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Negative thought:

Could the plateauing in Spain/Italy be down to not having the capacity to report beyond a certain number of deaths? Less doctors (off ill) + more deaths = a back log of deaths to report/classify/confirm cause? We already know the UK reported 'current' deaths that happened weeks ago.

Stabilised in these terms, means the rate of increase is diminishing - corona virus spreads exponentially, so unrestricted will infect via a multiplication effect - as we have seen in Italy, you don't stop the numbers increasing overnight, but reducing the rate of increase is the first sign of stabilisation.

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There was a piece on BBC News24 in the last 30 minutes on this, with an interview with the UK-based director responsible.

Aparently they've been exploring alternative uses for the tobacco plant for several years and have an Influenza vaccine under trial as well.

Quite interesting that they can get the basis for a vaccine in 12 weeks simply via growing tobacco plants to produce the substance needed.

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Strip away the headline about deaths in the last 24 hours, and I think the figures from Italy are very worrying.

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You told me yesterday their lockdown was working and we need to go as hard here?

 

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BREAKING: Government to dramatically increase production of bare-faced lies. 'We aim to have lied to every person in the country by the end of April, those that live that long,' a No 10 source said.

— simon maginn (@simonmaginn) April 1, 2020

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Another first class example of the enduring value of Twitter.

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Indeed.  Does anyone have the log scale deaths curve graph by country link please?

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Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. The 563 people who died today were most likely infected on the day Patrick Vallance said this. https://t.co/21Pyte6nM9

— Michael Walker (@michaeljswalker) April 1, 2020

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Quite decent article here

If there was a moment when the UK turned its back on the traditional public health approach to fighting an epidemic, this was it. Ebola, Sars, Mers – in previous epidemics, nobody had questioned the need to hunt down and eliminate the virus by testing everyone with symptoms, tracking their contacts and isolating and testing those people in turn. But not this time.

According to Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet medical journal, the dominant voices in the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the scientific expert group advising the government, were mathematical modellers and behavioural scientists, including Halpern.

On 25 March, Horton told MPs on the science and technology select committee that Sage appeared to have little input from public health experts and doctors, despite being chaired by the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific officer, Sir Patrick Vallance.

The clue for Horton was in the main papers it considered in advising the government of the strategy.

“There is evidence on modelling and on behavioural science, but I don’t see the evidence from the public health community or from the clinical community,” he explained.

Testing, isolation and quarantine – basic public health interventions – were barely on the agenda. Warnings from Chinese scientists of the severity of Covid-19 had not been understood.

As Ive been saying, Whitty and Vallance will be made the fall guys as Desperately Slow Boris and his band of incompetents try to avoid responsibility for the national scandal on testing and preparation.

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Why are you saying this? Italy now has among the highest number of tests (per million) and the number of new infections seems to be turning. Their number of deaths will probably follow

 

I don’t like to answer for people, but I wonder if Italy’s decline will be slower and more prolonged.

Take today for instance. They still have 4k cases coming through the system daily. We only hit 4k today and look at our recent deaths.

Italys deaths will come down, but I think look at these numbers it will be a long slog. 

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