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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2020 10:44:04

Beast and Maunder both wanting to put people to the slaughter.

What a disgrace

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Tongue in cheek I think in Maunder’s case!  He isn’t a one-liner poster!  Beast is just Beast! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Bugglesgate
04 April 2020 10:48:50


 


The "British commentator" Toby Young is making the same argument.  It seems to be populists and nationalists who support the idea. Incidentally it is now believed "herd immunity" won't be achieved until 70% of a population has been infected. Previously it was thought 60% would do the trick. Ouch... 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


While I am certainly not in the "let it rip" category.  Surely it has to be the case that  as more people get infected and recover,  the  more difficult it becomes for the virus to spread.  There is no absolute threshold here, surely.   The 70%  figure is probably the extinction threshold, where it can no longer effectively spread at all but  way down from that there must be a level  where the spread of the virus is hampered  enough to  stops the NHS from being "bricked". 


I have no idea what the level might be but that's a moot point at the moment becuase we also have no idea of the  level of infections and won't have until  a wide enough sample of the population has  been given (a  clinically reliable)  antibody test to  work it out. 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Phil G
04 April 2020 10:49:27

I have seen plenty of discussion on here of numbers and the mention of those truly dying of Covid-19, or were in the throes of dying anyway, which suggested a fair amount. You don't get 30 year old nurses just dying on the job however, but from that comment from a Leeds nurse that most up there were dying of natural causes does make you think we should look at this even more closer.
Could be that up north, the concentration of cases is far less with London and the Midlands but would be 'interesting' to see what the view was in these areas, mostly Covid-19 or a mixture of both.

I believe that lockdown is the only way at present we should go because we have nothing in place to pit against the virus. Until there is some sort of control, some pattern through the haze we cannot do anything else or make any decisions.
If there are clear signals, messages, info that does come through which is solid enough to base some relaxing then yes we should do.

In business terms, the trouble is if we turn the taps off for too long, we will never recover. Remember during the financial crisis all construction stopped. When there were signals things were improving there was an initiative to build a load of new homes to catch up. Trouble was, the brick making factories had closed or weren't making bricks, so we could not build these homes. We had to import bricks which took ages and had a massive knock on effect. I suggest we never recovered from the financial crisis because of this, always playing catch up the infrastructure never recovered.

If we don't hit the ground running when we start to come out of this we will be in big trouble and WILL NEVER RECOVER.
I can imagine other countries who are proactive will have already seen that there will be opportunities as well as a result of this virus and will be prepared when things improve. What we must do is not be left behind.

Yes we must look after what we have now, but its also vital that we protect our future as well, particularly as we are on our own now.
Turn the taps down to a trickle, but don't turn them off completely. Recent history has shown you don't recover when you do.

Gavin D
04 April 2020 10:49:39
Spain's latest 24-hour reporting period has recorded 809 new deaths another fall down by 132 from Thursday to Friday's 24hr total of 932

Gavin D
04 April 2020 10:51:17
Coronavirus: UK lockdown could be relaxed in weeks, says top govt adviser
 

Social distancing measures in the UK could be relaxed within weeks if there are signs the coronavirus epidemic is slowing, a leading scientist and government adviser has said.


Professor Neil Ferguson - of Imperial College London, which is advising the government on its coronavirus response - said the UK's epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people's behaviour was critical to determining what happens next.


 He told BBC Radio 4: "The critical thing first is to get case numbers down, and then I'm hopeful... in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which will not be normal life, let me emphasise that, but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying more on testing."
 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock have urged people to "stick with the guidance" to stay at home and resist the temptation to break the COVID-19 outbreak social distancing rules this sunny weekend.


Asked what would happen if people flouted the lockdown rules, Prof Ferguson replied: "That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.


"We still think things will plateau but we'll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China."


 


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-could-be-relaxed-in-weeks-says-top-govt-adviser-11968358




 

Lionel Hutz
04 April 2020 11:00:15

Breaking: 13 residents have died after suspected COVID-19 outbreak in a Glasgow care home

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-13-care-home-residents-die-after-suspected-covid-19-outbreak-11968475


Over here, it's been reported that there are a number of Covid 19 clusters in nursing homes. Not at all surprising, of course.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
04 April 2020 11:00:49


While I am certainly not in the "let it rip" category.  Surely it has to be the case that  as more people get infected and recover,  the  more difficult it becomes for the virus to spread.  There is no absolute threshold here, surely.   The 70%  figure is probably the extinction threshold, where it can no longer effectively spread at all but  way down from that there must be a level  where the spread of the virus is hampered  enough to  stops the NHS from being "bricked". 


I have no idea what the level might be but that's a moot point at the moment becuase we also have no idea of the  level of infections and won't have until  a wide enough sample of the population has  been given (a  clinically reliable)  antibody test to  work it out. 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Agree about antibody test. Unfortunately I think developing a reliable one is proving more time consuming and difficult than originally thought. (I mean globally and not just UK). 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
JHutch
04 April 2020 11:09:43

Regarding the age range of people who are critically ill the story seems to be that patients affected in parts of Wales are younger.


https://www.channel4.com/news/all-our-icu-patients-are-in-their-50s-or-younger-frontline-welsh-doctor-who-recovered-from-virus

Joe Bloggs
04 April 2020 11:28:02


 


Research from the US suggests the virus can remain airborne and infectious for 3 hours. Therefore, people walking in the park could be spreading the virus even if they do social distancing effectively.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It is absolutely bonkers that the official line is if you have symptoms, you can still go out. 


Baffling. For crying out loud, if you have symptoms, surely, don’t leave your house under any circumstances. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
04 April 2020 11:32:03


 


Yes I'm looking forward to the app-ocalypse in the UK. I wish Apple hadn't popularised the use of the word "app" because many politicians now use it without understanding what one is. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I’m probably showing my own ignorance too Brian! 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
westv
04 April 2020 11:32:43


 


Research from the US suggests the virus can remain airborne and infectious for 3 hours. Therefore, people walking in the park could be spreading the virus even if they do social distancing effectively.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


They wouldn't if they followed the guidance regarding coughing and sneezing.

At least it will be mild!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2020 11:35:54


 


Isn't that the only thing you lot eat anyway?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It would be ironic, if come autumn, we run out of spuds and Ireland have plenty!  If I were Irish, I’d close the borders just to be safe!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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doctormog
04 April 2020 11:43:28
chelseagirl
04 April 2020 11:45:53


Regarding the age range of people who are critically ill the story seems to be that patients affected in parts of Wales are younger.


https://www.channel4.com/news/all-our-icu-patients-are-in-their-50s-or-younger-frontline-welsh-doctor-who-recovered-from-virus


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Two Stereophonics concerts in Cardiff? 🤷‍♀️

The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
JHutch
04 April 2020 11:48:28


 


Two Stereophonics concerts in Cardiff? 🤷‍♀️


Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 


Yes, that ran through my mind too.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2020 11:57:33


 


Two Stereophonics concerts in Cardiff? 🤷‍♀️


Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 


Perhaps unsurprisingly SCMP made a meal out of that one!


https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/entertainment/article/3075717/chinese-social-media-shocked-huge-concerts-go-ahead-uk-amid

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Brian Gaze
04 April 2020 11:57:37

Just reading Ferguson's comments again. Doesn't he contradict himself in the same interview? See bolded sections.


Professor Neil Ferguson - of Imperial College London, which is advising the government on its coronavirus response - said the UK's epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people's behaviour was critical to determining what happens next.


...


He said on Saturday he was also confident successful antibody tests could be ready in days, adding he was "hopeful" some of the intense social distancing restrictions could be substituted with speedy access to testing and rapid contact tracing in a few weeks' time.


...


Prof Ferguson added: "We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we're able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now."


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-could-be-relaxed-in-weeks-says-top-govt-adviser-11968358


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 11:59:11


 


 


While I am certainly not in the "let it rip" category.  Surely it has to be the case that  as more people get infected and recover,  the  more difficult it becomes for the virus to spread.  There is no absolute threshold here, surely.   The 70%  figure is probably the extinction threshold, where it can no longer effectively spread at all but  way down from that there must be a level  where the spread of the virus is hampered  enough to  stops the NHS from being "bricked". 


I have no idea what the level might be but that's a moot point at the moment becuase we also have no idea of the  level of infections and won't have until  a wide enough sample of the population has  been given (a  clinically reliable)  antibody test to  work it out. 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


The herd immunity figure can only be a best guess, and obviously it varies according to the virus. Some (Measles, IIRC) are up at 95%. But it's neither precise nor a magic cut-off number. As the. Figure approaches the cut-off the risk of contagion dimishes, as you say.


But even at 70% it just means the infection is still there but isn't spreading uncontrollably. But in an average group of 10 people there's still that chance that 3 of them are vulnerable to catching it from each other and then infecting someone else in the 30%.


Checking even half the population at 100k per week still means it's about a year before we get through the testing; with luck there'll be a vaccine by then - for the vulnerable/elderly at least.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 12:01:27


Just reading Ferguson's comments again. Doesn't he contradict himself in the same interview? See bolded sections.


Professor Neil Ferguson - of Imperial College London, which is advising the government on its coronavirus response - said the UK's epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people's behaviour was critical to determining what happens next.


...


He said on Saturday he was also confident successful antibody tests could be ready in days, adding he was "hopeful" some of the intense social distancing restrictions could be substituted with speedy access to testing and rapid contact tracing in a few weeks' time.


...


Prof Ferguson added: "We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we're able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now."


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-could-be-relaxed-in-weeks-says-top-govt-adviser-11968358


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Wouldn't there be a lag between the tests becoming available and gathering sufficient evidence to be able to determine if it was safe to adopt less intensive measures?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
04 April 2020 12:05:05


 


Wouldn't there be a lag between the tests becoming available and gathering sufficient evidence to be able to determine if it was safe to adopt less intensive measures?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Perhaps. My point is that in the same interview he says "a few weeks" and then "end of May" for when the lockdown can start to be relaxed. Which did he mean? Was one a slip of the tongue? Did he think today was May 4th rather than April 4th. Makes no sense to me. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 12:16:08


 


I have to say that I do wonder about some of the research. Is this risk real or purely theoretical? After all, if I breathe out while outdoors, where is that breath five minutes later? It hardly hangs around in the same spot for three hours. Surely this risk could only apply indoors, if at all? If the virus has that potential to survive, you wonder why authorities bother to trace close contacts since if it's that infectious, surely we have any number of contacts? Also, if the virus has that ability to survive and propagate, surely we'd all have it by now?


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


I stumbled on this after doing a quick search


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-far-and-how-fast-a-sneeze-carries-contagious-germs#New-technology-to-study-infectious-diseases


 


It makes you wonder how any of us ever manage to stay disease free.....


I think I'm with you on the risk if you're outside being pretty low. But I can't decide whether a calm day or a breezy day carries the lower risk.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 12:17:52


 


Perhaps. My point is that in the same interview he says "a few weeks" and then "end of May" for when the lockdown can start to be relaxed. Which did he mean? Was one a slip of the tongue? Did he think today was May 4th rather than April 4th. Makes no sense to me. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, that was the point I was trying to address: a few weeks for the tests to be available but then the authorities need to see the evidence and assess whether the restriction should can be relaxed. There surely must be a lag whilst they assemble and assesss the evidence?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Lionel Hutz
04 April 2020 12:31:59


It would be ironic, if come autumn, we run out of spuds and Ireland have plenty!  If I were Irish, I’d close the borders just to be safe!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Sadly, these days, we import alot of our spuds. How far we have fallen 😋.


Still, I'm with you on closing our borders. That would ensure that we'd keep Beast out😁.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Lionel Hutz
04 April 2020 12:37:54


 


I stumbled on this after doing a quick search


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-far-and-how-fast-a-sneeze-carries-contagious-germs#New-technology-to-study-infectious-diseases


 


It makes you wonder how any of us ever manage to stay disease free.....


I think I'm with you on the risk if you're outside being pretty low. But I can't decide whether a calm day or a breezy day carries the lower risk.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I would imagine that it is a case of an ever lower risk of infection though. That said, I probably shouldn't comment as my knowledge of infection risks etc is pretty low. I'm really coming at it from the point of view that if the risk of infection were appreciable in the scenarios suggested in the article, surely most of us would have the virus by now. The advice in Ireland is that in order to be deemed a contact for tracing purposes, you need to be in the presence of an infected person for ten minutes. I am sure that there is an infection risk for even fleeting contact, but at ever decreasing rates.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2020 12:43:15


 


Perhaps. My point is that in the same interview he says "a few weeks" and then "end of May" for when the lockdown can start to be relaxed. Which did he mean? Was one a slip of the tongue? Did he think today was May 4th rather than April 4th. Makes no sense to me. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The end of May is a few weeks from now.  We’re in April so it’s 7 or 8 weeks away. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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