That model seems to be already way out of the graph is accurate, as it has well over 1,000 deaths by yesterday. 

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It's a depressing thought but with a vaccine at least a year away I'm struggling to see how many people are going to avoid getting this damn virus. 

It feels very strange at the moment but at least it also feels relatively safe. Going back to work will be horrible - it'll just feel like a case of waiting to get the virus and rolling the dice. 

What has been reported is that, because his symptoms had persisted, he was admitted for tests and that he has been given oxygen. 

The BBC has reported that, "Mr Johnson was admitted to St Thomas' Hospital in central London with "persistent symptoms" of Covid-19 on Sunday and was moved to intensive care on Monday evening after his symptoms worsened.  Mr Raab said the prime minister was receiving standard oxygen treatment and breathing without any assistance, such as mechanical ventilation or non-invasive respiratory support."

Where's the alleged misinformation, exactly?  Are you saying that the reports are lies? 

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Have you heard anything today?

Is he improving?

 

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Yes, I agree. The thought of having to be really careful for the next 12, maybe 18 months at least, to try to minimise the risks of catching Covid-19, is not appealing. We're both retired and I can't imagine how those who need to get back to work and have their children at school or college are going to cope.

Maybe we'll get lucky and a treatment will emerge that deals with the lung damage and takes the pressure away from ICUs; maybe there'll be a vaccine that is fast-tracked and effective. Otherwise we're looking at social distancing and masks for 12-18 months and/or continuing to protect the vulnerable.

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I don't think that's unavoidable though, it largely depends on the govt's response. New infections could be very few by the end of May if the lockdown lasts until then. The question is what the govt does after this.

 

Fascinating indeed and if you add the current death totals you can see a strong correlation between early lockdown and total number of deaths. Here are some numbers (total number of deaths as of today):

Slovakia: 2
Montenegro: 2
Cyprus: 9
Lithuania: 15
Croatia: 18
Slovenia: 36
Ukraine: 45
Serbia: 61
Greece: 81
Czech: 88

No, we weren't all lapping it up.

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Re: the illness from December which has been commented on a lot with some (not all!) people speculating whether it was early covid-19 or a similar illness. The graphs in the following tweet appear to show that it really was just a bad case of flu (am working at the mo though so have not had a chance to fully analyse the graphs and source etc)

 

Other interesting thing about that chart is you can see the nasty Influenza A strain that was affecting many people in December (which some thought was early Covid19) - and how it was transmitting through schools. Few Covid outbreaks in schools before they were shut... pic.twitter.com/U3rajGvOnZ

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) April 7, 2020

 

This is being discussed on Newsnight on BBC2 tonight and the view is that only mass testing and contact tracing, ideally using an app, can allow any significant relaxation. But that means on-going containment until there's a vaccine.

The bottom line is that SARS-Cov2 will still have the same characteristics in terms of transmission and severity of symptoms and only a vaccine will provide the necessary protection to allow life to return to whatever the new normal looks like.

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It is being reported on BBC News24, during the review of the papers, that Boris Johnson's temperature is dropping, which is excellent news.

It was also reiterated that he has not been on a ventilator at any stage.

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The Times are reporting Boris' temperature is now falling after it was persistently high

It seems blacks and asians are affected more and all men who are overweight

It could be that minorities are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds and more likely to have other health issues, rather than a genetic reason

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I could accept it was flu if it laid me in bed for a week but it didn't. The two times I've had flu before completely knocked me for six, out of action for a week, came on suddenly too.

The illness at the back end of December really was just a dry cough and temperature/night chills. I was able to go to work and carry on, despite feeling under the weather. 

I've no doubt flu was going round at the time but I didn't have flu.

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