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Quantum
07 April 2020 19:54:47


 


Without knowing any of the details I would seriously doubt it. I may not sure ECMO would be appropriate given reports on his condition.


Om a differentiations note, and putting aside political differences, I continue to be very impressed with Nicola Sturgeon’s tone and approach to the current situation. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed ECMO means its even more serious than it would be if he was being ventilated. Hence my doubt about the theory.


Sturgeon has been fine (from what I've seen of the press conferences I've watched) but it was a severe misjudgment not to immediately deal with that CMO situation.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bugglesgate
07 April 2020 19:56:57



UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts


Deaths predicted to peak at 3,000 a day. UK to account for 40% of Europe's mortalities.


Grim. Grim. Grim.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


That is massively different to the Imperial model.


We should be seeing he results of social distancing coming through in a few days in hospital admissions but obviously not deaths.  The trends we are seeing have got to change massively and quickly for their model to be correct.  I fervently hope it is bull*tulip!


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
07 April 2020 20:00:21



UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts


Deaths predicted to peak at 3,000 a day. UK to account for 40% of Europe's mortalities.


Grim. Grim. Grim.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


 

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I wouldn't put much weight to any particular modelling really. They are not useless by any means, but they can be quite unreliable and unstable and the problem is that we don't know much about their accuracy. HMG relied too much on the Imperial team's modelling and put too little weight to empirical data from other countries. 

Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 20:01:53


 


My information is that Boris is on non-invasive breathing support and that Downing St is not telling the whole truth. But I will be howled down for spreading misinformation. I have no idea whether he will recover - I sincerely hope he does.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Oh dear. It is a matter of record that you quoted inaccurate information yesterday and quite properly this was flagged.  I haven't seen any evidence of you being 'howled down' by anyone but maybe that comes under the definition of 'journalistic licence'?


We all hope he pulls through. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
07 April 2020 20:02:37


We should be seeing he results of social distancing coming through in a few days in hospital admissions 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


It took 3-3.5 weeks for that to happen in Italy and Spain and that would be later next week for us.

Essan
07 April 2020 20:05:05


Someone on twitter said this. I hadn't really thought about it but.


Is it possible Boris is on ECMO? This is not ventilation, its actually even more serious than ventilation. I somehow doubt it but I suppose its possible.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



It's possible

It's also possible he is in an induced comma

Or that he has turned into a mermaid

And that Covid-19 has been spread by birds migrating back to Europe this spring and that we should all shoot every swallow and swift we see, just in case.

When you delve into paranoid conspiracy land, anything is possible. 

Even Operation Blackjack 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
John p
07 April 2020 20:05:37


 


It took 3-3.5 weeks for that to happen in Italy and Spain and that would be later next week for us.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I expect their citizens obeyed the lockdown better than ours, so may take a little longer.


Camberley, Surrey
Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 20:06:42


 


Not that suprising though.


You could probably do a crude estimation simply by doing (population^2)/Area of country


i.e How density populated the country is multipled by the number of people in it.


I'm sure the UK would rank #1 in Europe on that list.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Isn't that a very crude measure though? I would have thought the number of areas with high population density was more important: if you look at the UK data you can see how London and the West Midlands stand out, for example.  Then in the US look at the challenges in New York and now New Orleans.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
07 April 2020 20:09:08


 Isn't that a very crude measure though? I would have thought the number of areas with high population density was more important: if you look at the UK data you can see how London and the West Midlands stand out, for example.  Then in the US look at the challenges in New York and now New Orleans.


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, we discussed this a few weeks ago. 'Lived density' could be a better measure.


https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/

Maunder Minimum
07 April 2020 20:10:19


 


Not that suprising though.


You could probably do a crude estimation simply by doing (population^2)/Area of country


i.e How density populated the country is multipled by the number of people in it.


I'm sure the UK would rank #1 in Europe on that list.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is only a model and no more likely to be correct than GFS predicting a screaming northerly in 10 days in January.


We have a high overall population density, but the more important metric is lived density - lived density is higher in most continental cities than in London (because most people live in apartment blocks).


No model can possibly take account of all the variables. Based on the inputs to the IHME study, Sweden should clearly end up with the highest per capita death rate, since they have not implemented lock down at all.


 


New world order coming.
xioni2
07 April 2020 20:15:46

Norway looks like another example of handling this well (so far!) They locked down early in their epidemic (12th of March) and they now have only 89 deaths in total. They are not too happy with their neighbours though.


 

Maunder Minimum
07 April 2020 20:18:24

Talking of population density, it is maddening and infuriating that this is still going on during the current crisis:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-52207869?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/europe&link_location=live-reporting-story


The only way to stop it is to return every single one straight back to France with no questions asked - when will politicians man up enough to do this?


New world order coming.
xioni2
07 April 2020 20:19:25


Norway looks like another example of handling this well (so far!) They locked down early in their epidemic (12th of March) and they now have only 89 deaths in total. They are not too happy with their neighbours though.


 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Some more countries which locked down early (and closed their borders) and have few total deaths so far:


Serbia: 61 deaths


Slovakia 2


Slovenia (next door to N.Italy): 36 deaths


Czechia 88


Lithuania 15


Poland 129


 

Maunder Minimum
07 April 2020 20:21:46

From the BBC. The UK Government was heavily criticised by some at the time for not joining this scheme:


-----------------


In late February, the European Union launched a plan to buy equipment to tackle the coronavirus outbreak on behalf of its members.


It was aimed at reducing costs when negotiating with manufacturers.


The first scheme involved buying masks and then, in March, three more schemes were added to purchase ventilators, testing kits and personal protective equipment.


But, to date, nothing has been bought and delivered.


-------------------


Link:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52193858


 


New world order coming.
Ulric
07 April 2020 20:22:44
An old and dear friend of mine died in hospital in Szeged, Hungary yesterday. Not of covid-19 though. She had an aggressive liver cancer and had been in hospital since early December.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 April 2020 20:32:37

Fascinating graph (click for larger) from the BBC showing the variation in response to the crisis across Europe



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Justin W
07 April 2020 20:37:27


 


Oh dear. It is a matter of record that you quoted inaccurate information yesterday and quite properly this was flagged.  I haven't seen any evidence of you being 'howled down' by anyone but maybe that comes under the definition of 'journalistic licence'?


We all hope he pulls through. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Except it wasn’t inaccurate.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gavin D
07 April 2020 20:42:06
NHS Nightingale London has received its first patients as planned
Lionel Hutz
07 April 2020 20:48:25

An old and dear friend of mine died in hospital in Szeged, Hungary yesterday. Not of covid-19 though. She had an aggressive liver cancer and had been in hospital since early December.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Sorry to hear that, Ulric. I hope at least that she had the comfort of having loved ones near her when she passed away, unlike corona virus victims. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Polar Low
07 April 2020 20:54:14

It’s nonsense Q it’s not the standard starting procedure only used when other M ventilator does not work for patient, and normally those with added heart failure can also provide blood pressure support



 


Indeed ECMO means its even more serious than it would be if he was being ventilated. Hence my doubt about the theory.


Sturgeon has been fine (from what I've seen of the press conferences I've watched) but it was a severe misjudgment not to immediately deal with that CMO situation.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 21:04:03


Except it wasn’t inaccurate.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


An Orwellian attempt to rewrite history because it was unarguably inaccurate when you reported what your source said.


In case you've forgotten , at 9.30am yesterday you posted the following: "Hearing that Johnson has been put on a ventilator"


 


Feel free to have the last word provided it's an admission that you're wrong.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Justin W
07 April 2020 21:11:09


 


An Orwellian attempt to rewrite history because it was unarguably inaccurate when you reported what your source said.


In case you've forgotten , at 9.30am yesterday you posted the following: "Hearing that Johnson has been put on a ventilator"


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yep. 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 21:12:51


 


Yep. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Good, so you accept that as he wasn't on a ventilator and is still not on a ventilator that the comment was indeed inaccurate.


Good, we can move on.


Thank you.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
07 April 2020 21:14:44

Very interesting sorry it’s behind a pay wall but progress is being slowly made.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2020/04/07/blood-recovered-coronavirus-victims-helps-patient-come-ventilator/


 


 


 


 


 

Justin W
07 April 2020 21:15:20
While you lot were all lapping up the Downing St line that Johnson was in for ‘routine tests’, I passed on what I had been told that:
1) He was in a much worse state than the official line
2) He had been on a ventilator

We shall see.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?

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