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Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 14:36:59

Just back from a short run. Despite this being a privileged area where most people live in houses and have their own gardens there is no doubt traffic is increasing day by day. Very disappointing when the PM is seriously ill and the daily death count is increasing. I can understand a couple with young kids in a flat in a crappy part of London struggling but around here there really isn't much excuse IMHO. C-: must try harder. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
08 April 2020 14:37:59


Jeremy Hunt just told the World at One that he thinks the lockdown will be maintained for at least another month.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


And the rest. 12 weeks was always going to be the ballpark so no reason that is likely to change. 


The idea floated today of reopening schools two weeks after Easter seems insane to me. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
08 April 2020 14:40:25


Just back from a short run. Despite this being a privileged area where most people live in houses and have their own gardens there is no doubt traffic is increasing day by day. Very disappointing when the PM is seriously ill and the daily death count is increasing. I can understand a couple with young kids in a flat in a crappy part of London struggling but around here there really isn't much excuse IMHO. C-: must try harder. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


To be frank at this stage, I would support the military patrolling the streets.


This is too important an issue to allow a sizeable minority to flout the rules, at this crucial stage.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Lionel Hutz
08 April 2020 14:43:02

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0408/1129265-covid-clusters-ireland/


These are Irish figures but relevant to the UK I would think. Many of the cases here are now coming out of residential institutions like nursing homes, long stay units etc. At this point, I suspect that there is a limit to what can be done in these institutions. Even if it is not the intention of the authorities, I suspect that we are in an unintentional "let it rip" scenario in these places.


A quarter of our infections are health care workers. I suspect that this proportion may be overstated as these people are tetsed if they are considered to be at risk of infection,


It's also interesting that the consistent advice given here and mentioned in many RTE articles is that you generally need to be in the company of an infected person for 10 minutes before you are considered at risk. Too relaxed an attitude? It's interesting the differences in emphasis between countries. We are told that you need to self isolate for 14 days if you have been in contact with an infected person while the recommended time period in the UK is 7 days.


As of yesterday, we've had 5700 or so recorded cases(on a much higher per capita testing level - 42,000 tests done here) and with 345 deaths. While there was a spike in deaths yesterday(36 deaths), our infection levels seem to be flattening in recent days. By way of comparison, the UK's population is 13 times ours so we seem to have somewhat lower infection levels here, though not dramatically so. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



westv
08 April 2020 14:59:49


Just back from a short run. Despite this being a privileged area where most people live in houses and have their own gardens there is no doubt traffic is increasing day by day. Very disappointing when the PM is seriously ill and the daily death count is increasing. I can understand a couple with young kids in a flat in a crappy part of London struggling but around here there really isn't much excuse IMHO. C-: must try harder. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The graphs in the daily briefing support a continuation of low traffic levels generally.


At least it will be mild!
Gavin D
08 April 2020 15:01:51
National Medical Director, Professor Stephen Powis says that testing of NHS staff has now passed 12,000
Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 15:02:00


 


The graphs in the daily briefing support a continuation of low traffic levels generally.


Originally Posted by: westv 


I don't care what they show! I can promise you traffic is ticking up here.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
westv
08 April 2020 15:05:23


 


I don't care what they show! I can promise you traffic is ticking up here.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Put that handbag away.


 


I'm just saying that doesn't appear to be the case generally.


At least it will be mild!
Northern Sky
08 April 2020 15:19:11


 


To be frank at this stage, I would support the military patrolling the streets.


This is too important an issue to allow a sizeable minority to flout the rules, at this crucial stage.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The problem is though that until there is a vaccine the policy will have to allow people to become infected.  The alternative is keeping everyone locked down for months. A steady rate of infection that won't overwhelm the hospitals is the only realistic policy there is, because otherwise a second wave in the Autumn/Winter would in all likelihood be even worse, especially if combined with a bad normal flu season.


It's a frightening thought but I don't see how the majority of us are going to avoid it before a vaccine becomes available. 

Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 15:23:20

We can not ignore the economic consequences though, because the more extreme these get the greater the damage that will be done to both physical and mental health going forward and there is plenty of evidence in various parts of Scotland as to how profound and long lasting the effects of severe economic dislocation can be.

I saw reports this morning that Scotland is facing an economic contraction of 25% - IIRC >10% over 2 or more quarters is often considered the definition of an economic depression. I wonder to what extent even that horrendous figure could be a significant under estimate for rural areas such as the Highlands and Islands?

I know a good number of people who move between seasonal jobs and they have basically fallen through all of the government's proposed safety nets so far, this won't just be an issue in rural Scotland but in various parts of the country with a big visitor based sector. The Scottish Ski Areas had a very poor start to the season, when the snow did come, storms practically wiped out February half term before the snow and weather was finally coming together in March only for them to have to close because of Coronavirus. They can't recover the lost time in the summer, its not at all clear all of them will be there next season either. There are many people in outdoor activities or various parts of the tourism sectors that would have started jobs this month that fall through the critera furlough scheme.

There will be a good number of businesses in the West Highlands that the peak walking season the West Highland Way is very important to and that will be wiped out entirely, its basically from Easter through to late June for by far the busiest period - the time you might call BM - Before Midges! Even if things start to open up in the summer, like the ski areas their most important period of the year once lost can't be reclaimed later in the year. There is also the issue of businesses struggling to hold on long enough to receive furlough grants to whom there is no chance of getting loans or overdrafts from a bank when they've just lost their main trading period and their future income is heavily dependent on things entirely outwith their control such as the Scottish weather!

There must be a lot of people and companies in various parts of the British Isles facing similar issues with the support schemes that have been setup. If ever there was a time for a basic income or guaranteed minimum income for every citizen it is now, at a time where people need help now simplicity is key and a basic income for all looks the simplest and fairest, no means testing, no questions - those that don't need it, well it will effectively be reclaimed through the tax system anyway.

Originally Posted by: haggishunter 


My business income is currently running at 20% to 25% of what it should be at this time of the year. I also won't make it back because most of it comes from people attending festivals / events or going walking etc. in the summer months. My business also doesn't qualify for meaningful compensation from the government. 


Therefore, there is nothing I would like to see more than things returning to normal quickly. However, opening things up is NOT the answer. If infection rates and daily death counts are still relatively high I think many people will not want to leave their homes to go on mini breaks in Scotland, Lake District or Cornwall. Certainly not those who are middle aged or older. Also remember that older people generally have more money to spend in restaurants and hotels.


Unfortunately things can't IMO move forward until it can be demonstrated the infection is under control. If pushed I would say daily infections need to be in the low hundreds for confidence to come back. The reason I would support a stronger lockdown now is because I think it would get us to the point where we can begin to open up a lot sooner. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
springsunshine
08 April 2020 15:37:24

We can not ignore the economic consequences though, because the more extreme these get the greater the damage that will be done to both physical and mental health going forward and there is plenty of evidence in various parts of Scotland as to how profound and long lasting the effects of severe economic dislocation can be.

I saw reports this morning that Scotland is facing an economic contraction of 25% - IIRC >10% over 2 or more quarters is often considered the definition of an economic depression. I wonder to what extent even that horrendous figure could be a significant under estimate for rural areas such as the Highlands and Islands?

I know a good number of people who move between seasonal jobs and they have basically fallen through all of the government's proposed safety nets so far, this won't just be an issue in rural Scotland but in various parts of the country with a big visitor based sector. The Scottish Ski Areas had a very poor start to the season, when the snow did come, storms practically wiped out February half term before the snow and weather was finally coming together in March only for them to have to close because of Coronavirus. They can't recover the lost time in the summer, its not at all clear all of them will be there next season either. There are many people in outdoor activities or various parts of the tourism sectors that would have started jobs this month that fall through the critera furlough scheme.

There will be a good number of businesses in the West Highlands that the peak walking season the West Highland Way is very important to and that will be wiped out entirely, its basically from Easter through to late June for by far the busiest period - the time you might call BM - Before Midges! Even if things start to open up in the summer, like the ski areas their most important period of the year once lost can't be reclaimed later in the year. There is also the issue of businesses struggling to hold on long enough to receive furlough grants to whom there is no chance of getting loans or overdrafts from a bank when they've just lost their main trading period and their future income is heavily dependent on things entirely outwith their control such as the Scottish weather!

There must be a lot of people and companies in various parts of the British Isles facing similar issues with the support schemes that have been setup. If ever there was a time for a basic income or guaranteed minimum income for every citizen it is now, at a time where people need help now simplicity is key and a basic income for all looks the simplest and fairest, no means testing, no questions - those that don't need it, well it will effectively be reclaimed through the tax system anyway.

Originally Posted by: haggishunter 


If there is to be a long period of lockdown I agree a universal income should be considered and I would be inclined to restrict it to all basic rate taxpayers.There is no easy way out of this lockdown and this virus is hear to stay,until a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved.The one thing more than anything that will lift the lockdown is economic pressure which will increase substantially from next month onwards as most people would have been paid as normal at the end of March so ok for April.Its when the sudden drop in income happens at the end of this month not too mention how long can all the `non essential` businesses survive with no revenue! Not many will last beyond 2 months.


Your points above apply to many many businesses in hospitality,lesuire and tourism across the rest of the uk as well.


An economic meltdown=mass unemployment and mass defaults=another financial crisis= no more NHS and other public services!


Unless the govt are going to indroduce a universal income and basically lay much of the economy to waste by imposing a lockdown lasting months they are going to have to gradually ease restrictions by end of May at the latest.


The public at the moment are onboard in a big way but that could evaporate very quickly which could then lead to civil unrest. 


The govt cannot just look at this from a medical view point and make the remedy worse than the disease.


 

Heavy Weather 2013
08 April 2020 15:38:12
This was on Sky

Police officers in Kensal Green, London say they saw '20 - 30 males' playing cricket, and they ran away when officers started to approach.

—-
Utterly disgraceful. This is why weed a tougher lockdown for a couple of weeks.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Joe Bloggs
08 April 2020 15:41:06


 


The problem is though that until there is a vaccine the policy will have to allow people to become infected.  The alternative is keeping everyone locked down for months. A steady rate of infection that won't overwhelm the hospitals is the only realistic policy there is, because otherwise a second wave in the Autumn/Winter would in all likelihood be even worse, especially if combined with a bad normal flu season.


It's a frightening thought but I don't see how the majority of us are going to avoid it before a vaccine becomes available. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


You're right it is frightening.


What I mean though is we need to get over the peak first, it's at this point I'd get the army out as we need to get through this really crucial few weeks without the usual arseholes spoiling it for the majority.


In the mean time we need to keep preparing the NHS, and build all these extra hospitals, and increase the number of ICU beds, ventilators, and hopefully eventually antibody tests.


Once we get to June, start to relieve the lockdown, in stages, whilst shielding the very vulnerable. 


I agree that we'll have to face this head on eventually, which is why we need to take these vital steps now. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

xioni2
08 April 2020 15:42:13


Just back from a short run. Despite this being a privileged area where most people live in houses and have their own gardens there is no doubt traffic is increasing day by day. Very disappointing when the PM is seriously ill and the daily death count is increasing. I can understand a couple with young kids in a flat in a crappy part of London struggling but around here there really isn't much excuse IMHO. C-: must try harder. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's exactly my experience in my area too. During the first week it was mainly van drivers and builders, now I see more cars around and I really doubt they all are being used for shopping, especially now that supermarkets have relaxed the rationing.


There is also little change in the amount of extensions and refurbishment going on. 

The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 15:43:42


 


A 15% increase which is the same as yesterday. The rate of increase is a lot lower than it was a week ago so that is a positive.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, and hospital admissions are down which is very good, so this is clearly the peak and things will now get better. No need for further lockdown measures


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
doctormog
08 April 2020 15:44:35
Things still seem very quiet here although I have only ventures as far as the garden today. Generally there are quite a few people out and about walking but it looks as if they are literally just going for a walk with the occasional person carrying shopping bags. Little evidence of the need for tighter restrictions here and I suspect in a few other places too.
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 15:45:52


 


Hardly - we are about to have the worst mortality rate anywhere in the world outside the US. Not even you can spin that as a positive.


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


We don't know whats going on in Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Syria etc


I imagine most third world countries will have much higher deaths than western countries and most will go unnoticed 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
xioni2
08 April 2020 15:46:15


The problem is though that until there is a vaccine the policy will have to allow people to become infected.  The alternative is keeping everyone locked down for months. A steady rate of infection that won't overwhelm the hospitals is the only realistic policy there is, because otherwise a second wave in the Autumn/Winter would in all likelihood be even worse, especially if combined with a bad normal flu season.


It's a frightening thought but I don't see how the majority of us are going to avoid it before a vaccine becomes available. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Why do you dismiss  the test, contact tracing and isolate method? Several Asian countries did this successfully and now some European countries start preparing something similar.


I don't think you can have a controlled infection policy. 

The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 15:47:14

Things still seem very quiet here although I have only ventures as far as the garden today. Generally there are quite a few people out and about walking but it looks as if they are literally just going for a walk with the occasional person carrying shopping bags. Little evidence of the need for tighter restrictions here and I suspect in a few other places too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Punish those transgressing the rules, but don't collectively punish everyone. Unless you want to start rioting


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Darren S
08 April 2020 15:48:12


Regional breakdown for the deaths in England


London - 201
Midlands - 171
North West - 128
South East - 120
North East & Yorkshire - 101
East of England - 70
South West - 37


Do we have a breakdown somewhere of the populations for each of those regions?


Originally Posted by: John p 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_England


London - 8.908m
Midlands - 10.704m
North West - 7.292m
South East - 9.134m
North East & Yorkshire - 8.138m
East of England - 6.201m
South West - 5.600m


Based on the above, today's increases are:


London - 22.6 per million
Midlands - 16.0 per million
North West - 17.6 per million
South East - 13.1 per million
North East & Yorkshire - 12.4 per million
East of England - 11.3 per million
South West - 6.6 per million


So as has been the case all along, London is having considerably more deaths than elsewhere, and the South West considerably fewer.


 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Justin W
08 April 2020 15:50:02


 


That's exactly my experience in my area too. During the first week it was mainly van drivers and builders, now I see more cars around and I really doubt they all are being used for shopping, especially now that supermarkets have relaxed the rationing.


There is also little change in the amount of extensions and refurbishment going on. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I live in a tiny hamlet consisting of eight households on a dead-end lane off another lane. Most of the residents are elderly. At the end of the lane, there's a house with attached Airbnb lets and livery business. There is a steady stream of traffic to and from this property - people who own horses plus the owner's various male 'friends' who are mostly middle aged and already married. They appear to be exempt from the lockdown regulations and my patience is wearing thin with them.


Other households include:



  1. Our neighbour who caught CV19 in Italy and has now recovered. Despite her assumed immunity, she continues to observe the lockdown and has my respect for it

  2. Very elderly couple with one in renal failure and his wife having had a quadruple heart bypass in December. Both shielded and observing lockdown

  3. Young couple in their 30s next house down the lane. Expecting baby in a couple of weeks. Strictly observing lockdown

  4. Elderly widow in big house not observing lockdown because 'it is boring'

  5. Elderly wealthy couple having new kitchen fitted by fitter who has worked there every day for the past two weeks regardless. Not observing lockdown

  6. Elderly couple who think it's a bit of a joke and continue to go out shopping virtually every day

  7. Beth and I strictly observing the lockdown


That is my experience. The younger people are here, the more inclined they seem to be to observe the rules. The elderly don't seem to care and it is them that we are trying to protect!


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 15:50:14


 


 


I don't think you can have a controlled infection policy. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


If it mutates regularly, then we will have to. Just accept it like an extra strain of flu. Something that will kill a percentage of the population each year 


We cant put life on hold forever


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 15:50:53


 


Yes, and hospital admissions are down which is very good, so this is clearly the peak and things will now get better. No need for further lockdown measures


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Pubs could reopen May 18th according to this article in the Fail. The timetable has been put together by Professor Karol Sikora who is a very respected figure in the UK and internationally I believe:


April 27th - Small businesses open


May 4th - lockdown removed


May 18th - all offices, bars and restaurants reopen


June 1st - international travel resumes


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8200311/Former-executive-reveals-four-step-exit-strategy-ease-UK-lockdown.html


My view - best of luck to him with that. I can't see it unless infections drop massively.


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
08 April 2020 15:52:34
As of 9am 8 April, 282,074 tests have concluded, with 14,682 tests on 7 April. 232,708 people have been tested of which 60,733 tested positive. As of 5pm on 7 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,097 have sadly died.
speckledjim
08 April 2020 15:53:05
My understanding is that Norway, Denmark and Austria are beginning to ease their restrictions next week. I believe that the process for reopening schools begins on Monday in Norway and Denmark, and in Austria they are allowing shops to reopen. Hopefully that will provide us with valuable data for our decision making.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip

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