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Heavy Weather 2013
08 April 2020 12:10:47


 


What can we deduce from this? 



  1. That he is still very poorly

  2. He is still receiving oxygen

  3. His temperature has not gone down despite reports last night

  4. He is no longer in charge


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


100% agree Justin. I wasn’t convinced this morning. He is clearly still unwell. Nothing in that message suggests otherwise. They continue to say he is in good spirits. My view is when they keep repeating that line they are using as a holding and deflection statement.


Of course we are just doomsayers.


 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
westv
08 April 2020 12:12:11

So basically no change for BJ since yesterday then.


At least it will be mild!
Quantum
08 April 2020 12:14:54

You can roughly work out the probability that you know someone with it (confirmed case).


An average person probably has 120 acquaintances. This is alot looser than close friends but more strict than fb friends or twitter followers. There are about 67M people in the UK of which means any given person has a probability of 0.0008 ish of being a confirmed case.


So the probability of a person not having it is 1-0.0008


So the probability that one of those 120 aquaintances has it is 1- ((1-0.0008)^(120))


This gives an answer of about 0.1


In other words about 10% of people know someone who is at least to aquantaince level who has been confirmed positive.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
08 April 2020 12:18:10

Fascinating thread, doctors may be treating Covid-19 incorrectly.
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1247850102212956160?s=21


Originally Posted by: John p 

">


 


Scary stuff 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 12:19:00


Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy 


 


Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic


 


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I thought Salvini had already done this years ago?


Speaking of migrants, I wonder what is happening in the refugee camps in Turkey? They must be overrun with deaths, but probably no testing taking place so we will never know


Same with India as well. Plebs die of lots of things anyway like dissentry, so we may never know how bad things were


 


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2020 12:19:14


Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Originally Posted by: John p 

I don’t personally know anyone who has been confirmed as having it. Or anyone who has suffered any symptoms.  


My daughter knows the local landlady’s husband who’s currently recovering from it in hospital. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 12:26:58

Will plod go after these rich middle class offenders?


Of course not, they will harass poor people sitting on park benches as its easier


 


 


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Roonie
08 April 2020 12:27:45


Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Originally Posted by: John p 


My brother confirmed as having it from Ischgl as were the other 2 in the party. Brothers family all to varying degrees affected. Wife of friend still poorly with it. None needed hospitalisation.


Friend in Worcester on a ventilator with it - not looking too good :(


Stepmother of lady that works with my wife has died from it  :(


I am firmly of the opinion that this is one infection you DO NOT WANT - irrespective of age or BMI - as it is a lottery as to what the outcome might be....



 


 


Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Justin W
08 April 2020 12:27:48

Jeremy Hunt just told the World at One that he thinks the lockdown will be maintained for at least another month.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
08 April 2020 12:28:13

JFF model predictions for today.


4639 new cases (assumes about 11k tests)


Today would also be 'big jump day' assuming the 3 day periodicity is still hanging around (although that has become a bit weaker recently).


Assuming the model is right about the peak being on the 5th then the peak in deaths would probably be around the 19th, assuming a 2 week confirmed->death lag.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
08 April 2020 12:29:10


 


I wonder if there'll be an extension for a defined period or an enouncement that it just won't be ending yet.


Originally Posted by: westv 


They might whack two weeks on to it from that point 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Joe Bloggs
08 April 2020 12:30:19


Jeremy Hunt just told the World at One that he thinks the lockdown will be maintained for at least another month.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I think we’re looking at June at the earliest until things slowly start making an attempt at returning to normal. But even after this will take time. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 12:32:32


I thought Salvini had already done this years ago?


Speaking of migrants, I wonder what is happening in the refugee camps in Turkey? They must be overrun with deaths, but probably no testing taking place so we will never know


Same with India as well. Plebs die of lots of things anyway like dissentry, so we may never know how bad things were


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Salvini did stop the boats arriving, but since he left the government, the human trafficking to Italy restarted. Now it has been stopped again because of corona virus - so where will the NGOs take their human cargoes? I cannot see France or Spain being any more receptive than Italy now, so perhaps the NGO people smugglers will have to take their cargo to their native Germany.


New world order coming.
Quantum
08 April 2020 12:33:08

Suggestions that immunity to COVID-19 is rather low with antibody levels much lower than even standard flu. It rises with age and severity though. So younger people or those that got a milder version may be more at risk from getting it twice.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 12:43:10

From the Telegraph:



'Allow young people out of lockdown early to get country moving'





Allowing young people aged between 20 and 30 out of lockdown early could help get Britain moving again and avoid an "extraordinary recession", business experts have said.


As the Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, told the daily press conference that the epidemic curve appeared to be "flattening off", speculation is growing as to how the UK can escape from its lockdown.


Researchers at the University of Warwick calculated that allowing 4.2 million young adults to resume their daily lives would boost the economy by £13 billion, while shielding more vulnerable age groups.


Older adults could then be allowed out of lockdown later, through a strategy of staged release using antibody testing to identify those who had already recovered from coronavirus.


Our Science Editor, Sarah Knapton has the full story here. She's also answering all your coronavirus questions in today's lunchtime Q&A.






New world order coming.
llamedos
08 April 2020 12:44:59


Will plod go after these rich middle class offenders?


Of course not, they will harass poor people drinking on park benches as its easier


 


 


 






Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Let's face it you've been cautioned quite a few times before and that was before Covid-19


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 12:51:46


Let's face it you've been cautioned quite a few times before and that was before Covid-19


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Only for dogging


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 12:53:19


From the Telegraph:



'Allow young people out of lockdown early to get country moving'





 






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



Since all our pub workers are below 30, I assume that means the pub can open!


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2020 12:54:19

Ontario having similar problems to many places (not enough testing)


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-conducting-fewer-covid-19-tests-daily-as-cases-keep-climbing-1.5525490


And in a masterclass in stating the bleeding obvious we have the following helpful statement:



"I am a little bit concerned that we don't have a very good handle of what's happening with this epidemic right now," Dr. Jeff Kwong, a professor of public health and family medicine at the University of Toronto, told CBC News.


"If we can identify more of the cases that are in the community it will help give us a better idea of what's going on."


 


(Lockdown continues here. Food shopping is tedious but doable, and the local stores still have Marmite  .To be frank it's just boring at this point. I'm used to it as I often work at home anyway. Observation of restrictions still seems pretty good, exercise not an issue. Kids' online schooling has kicked in but months of social isolation may be tough on the younger ones. Current main concern is that I may have to shave my head as the virus was very inconsiderate about kicking in just before a planned barber visit ).


--
Paul.
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 12:56:15


 


I think we’re looking at June at the earliest until things slowly start making an attempt at returning to normal. But even after this will take time. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Hopefully there will be partial lifting before then. Allow shops to open with social distancing for example


Jeremy C+nt and Handjob are only looking at the medical side


Hopefully the economists in the Cabinet will carry the day. The cure can never be worse than the illness. Economic depression and actual depression will kill many more than Corona


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Justin W
08 April 2020 12:57:10


 


Hopefully there will be partial lifting before then. Allow shops to open with social distancing for example


Jeremy C+nt and Handjob are only looking at the medical side


Hopefully the economists in the Cabinet will carry the day. The cure can never be worse than the illness. Economic depression and actual depression will kill many more than Corona


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not with the printing presses running, they won't


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Essan
08 April 2020 12:58:52


Since all our pub workers are below 30, I assume that means the pub can open!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes.  But as you are over 30 you'll not be allowed in 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Phil G
08 April 2020 13:00:40


From the Telegraph:



'Allow young people out of lockdown early to get country moving'





Allowing young people aged between 20 and 30 out of lockdown early could help get Britain moving again and avoid an "extraordinary recession", business experts have said.


As the Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, told the daily press conference that the epidemic curve appeared to be "flattening off", speculation is growing as to how the UK can escape from its lockdown.


Researchers at the University of Warwick calculated that allowing 4.2 million young adults to resume their daily lives would boost the economy by £13 billion, while shielding more vulnerable age groups.


Older adults could then be allowed out of lockdown later, through a strategy of staged release using antibody testing to identify those who had already recovered from coronavirus.


Our Science Editor, Sarah Knapton has the full story here. She's also answering all your coronavirus questions in today's lunchtime Q&A.






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It may work if they could socially distance, but if they can't what happens when they return home to others. We'll be back to square one.

Quantum
08 April 2020 13:00:40

20-30 seems like a decent age range if this questionable policy was to go ahead.


Keep teenagers away,  they are too irresponsible and hedonistic to not take the p*ss.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
08 April 2020 13:04:16


 


It may work if they could socially distance, but if they can't what happens when they return home to others. We'll be back to square one.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Only twenty somethings living with other twenty somethings or on their own?


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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