Good news that PM is out of ICU and seems to be on the road to recovery.

Sad news that almost 8000 people have been identified as dying as a result of Covid-19, although the total is obviously much higher;hopefully we're not too far away from the peak, although there will be many more casualties and much grieving for affected relatives.

Let's hope the forecast fine weather for many won't bring out the worst in those who are flouting the government's social distancing efforts.  

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It's Good Friday so the UK death count is likely to fall today. Until next Wednesday I think it will be difficult to get a clear picture of what is going on. Testing and hospital admissions should not be impacted by the Easter period but whether the stats will be consistent or lag further is another question.

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With poor testing it’s hard to have any idea of the true number of infected people. 
With only hospital deaths being reported it’s hard to know how many poor souls have succumb to this horrible disease. 
Even if care homes and private dwelling were included PHE delay and gather the information over 2-3 weeks. I feel the true figures will never be told.

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It now appears to be ripping though care homes and there is pressure for more to be done. I'm relieved that my mum and dad who were in a care home both died shortly before this got going. 

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Indeed But I hope his doctors will be able to talk some sense into him, to the effect that anyone who has been in intensive care is not ina position to make nationally important decisions for at least a week; and that if he tries to play the hero (as would be his natural inclination), he'll be back in hospital again

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Current mortality rates. 

Country Cases Deaths Mortality rate (%)
Italy 143626 18279 12.73
UK 65077 7978 12.26
France 117749 12210 10.37
Spain 153222 15447 10.08
USA 468895 16697 3.56
Germany 118235 2607 2.20

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Replacing the word mortality with the word testing may paint a more accurate picture. How many asymptomatic people in the U.K. have been tested?

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Indeed. All the figures suggest to me is that the UK is doing less than 25% of the testing required to produce a reliable figure.

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Sadly the most vulnerable is society, i.e those in care and nursing homes are some of the less shielded due mixing with other residents and the constant stream of staff coming in and out.  Also social distancing on a dementia unit where residents walk around all day is almost impossible without restraining people.  

All deaths from those receiving care are centrally collated but the problem is the quality of what is recorded depends on individual managers. It won't say Covid-19 unless confirmed and testing has been poor. The data will have to be reviewed after the outbreak and compared to the before outbreak death numbers.

But yes more should be done in social care.It is the last to get PPE , staff are not as trained and supported as in the NHS.  Forgotten sector. If i was a social care worker on minimim wage I would be a bit resentful of all the praise, discounts etc for the NHS staff. Social care workers are doing an equally difficult job yet many get paid less, basic minimum wage and don't get proper sick pay ( 6 months full pay in NHS). 

 

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Important points I missed yesterday:

1) Vallance said internal government modelling suggests the percentage infection rate in the UK is probably in the "low single digits". The figure of 3% is quoted

2) To achieve "herd immunity" an infection rate of 80% is now being touted. We started off at 60% to 70% so it suggests the virus is transmitted more easily than originally thought 

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 Completely agree. It's often said that being a Dr or nurse is a vocation rather than a job. IMO being a social care worker more often than not isn't. It can literally mean wiping sh1t off the floor and receiving abuse from patients with dementia. Often the people doing the work are paid the national minimum wage as you say. I have seen what it is like at first hand with the experience of my parents in their last few years.

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You obviously miss them terribly Brian, but I understand what your saying.

My mother should be in a care home but has steadfastly refused any such intervention and as difficult as it has been for me to provide the level of support she requires on a daily basis, I'm pleased she's relatively safe at home rather than being "cooped up" and running the very real risk of contracting the virus from one of the other residents. 

It can be quite stressful though. Even this morning she phoned me and was laughing uncontrollably; above here laughter I could hear the smoke alarm blasting out in her home as she proudly told me that her toast was burning and the more I told her to remove the toast and open the back door, the more she laughed. I think she must have been Nero in a previous life     

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Totally this. There are tens of thousands of people in the care and social sector carrying on their essential work who are last in line for PPE and very rarely mentioned in the ‘praise-ups’. These people are heroes too.

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Scientific adviser Prof Neil Ferguson, who was asked about coming out of lockdown, said it would likely "be targeted by age, by geography".

Interesting. That seems to suggest then that those parts of the country affected least will have restrictions lifted earliest. On a personal note, I'd be happy with that as we've been 'lucky' thus far up here and the ICU beds remain mostly empty.

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There is no end to the waves spreading around the world from the economic shock:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52146507 

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Yes, that would provide morbidity numbers.  Although we still won’t really know the true rate of infections without antibody testing. 

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...and that might be a long, long way off, if ever, if the Guardian is anything to go by:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/uk-government-urged-to-abandon-poor-finger-prick-antibody-tests-coronavirus

TL,DR;

Lab-based tests are the only ones which are any good. Given the frankly abysmal rate of lab-based testing for the virus, I can't imagine the antibody testing would be any better.

(These "not especially accurate" home tests will end up being dumped, I'd imagine. I'd still be tempted to buy one though, given that there's only a 2% chance of getting a false positive.)

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According to The Times the UK is demanding a refund for 3 million antibody tests bought from China. Sounds like a similar debacle to what happened in Spain a couple of weeks ago.

On a more positive note have you read about the German antibody testing that has started?

See https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

 

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The Guardian article above not only mentions that, but says that many of the different tests being evaluated look very similar - they suspect they're all coming from the same place, despite being sold by different companies.

Yes, that's a glimmer of good news and underscores the importance of large-scale testing.

Of particular note is this quote: "The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates."

Compare that with the crude figures we're getting!

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The updated trajectory shows Spain and Italy flattening the curve whilst France are showing signs the may be starting to reach the peak

The USA and the UK (albeit with very late reporting on some of our deaths) continuing to rise up the curve.

With due respect to Vallance, Brian, do you think we can "know" either of these facts yet, given the testing regime and apparent regional variation? As the Aviva advert goes "...Nobody Knows".

We have just spoken with our cousin in Ostia - the family are all fine but expect to be locked down for another 3 weeks at least. They are talking of "May", and I can't see we will be saying anything very different. Can you? It was 12 weeks here initially, and that gets us to the first week of June.

Roger

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There are rather opaque suggestions in The Times that a small scale antibody testing survey has begun in the UK and the initial results from it back the modelling.

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Re. Valance he did say time and time again that at this stage you cannot put a number or timeframe on this situation. However people want the situation to be quantified regardless of the fact the data and evidence for that are not present.

Watch any interview and you will see the medics and scientists pushed again and again to give impossible numbers and timings. The smallest sniff of any reply will be plastered over the news as an “expert claims...”.

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Having listened to Burnham on Newsnight, I have changed my view on this. We all need to come out at the same time. If people in London see people in the countryside going to pubs and parks etc, they will get in their cars and drive to non locked down areas. 

 

 

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It may be Good Friday but the relentless Ferguson rattles on...and why not! Interesting stuff or more of the same? 

Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling the government advice is based on, believes it will be "several more weeks" until it is clear whether coronavirus restrictions in the UK can be lifted.

He tells the BBC's Today programme it will take that long to "definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline".

Asked about a potential exit strategy, he says: "We clearly don’t want these measures to continue any longer than is absolutely necessary.

"But we do want to find a set of policies which maintain the suppression of transmission of this virus.

"Without doubt, measures will be targeted, probably, by age, by geography and we will need to introduce, in my view… much larger levels of testing."

He adds that working out how to end the lockdown is the "number one topic and priority, every waking minute" for the scientific community and the government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925

 

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