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xioni2
16 April 2020 10:19:24


I would have thought that unless someone who had tested positive in hospital had died, the reporting would be the responsibility of the county coroners office, following post mortem examination.  Otherwise they wouldn’t know the deaths were from Covid 19, as we haven’t been testing in care homes. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I don't think this is how it's done currently, but I can't remember the article I read. A coroner is involved only if a doctor did not see or treat the person for the condition from which they died within 28 days of death.

Phil G
16 April 2020 10:28:56


Times editorial backing Starmer:


However, other European nations are starting to set out the initial details of their plans to emerge from complete lockdown and it is time, as the leader of the opposition, Sir Keir Starmer, has been arguing, that the British government did the same. President Macron has announced that some restrictions will be lifted in France on May 11. Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Norway have all announced their intention to relax the lockdown laws by the end of this month. Even Spain and Italy, the hardest-hit countries until Britain began to contest that unwanted title, will soon begin to ease restrictions.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-easing-britains-coronavirus-lockdown-exit-plan-jxz9btckc


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It seems our extension is a gimme with another three weeks.


While we will be one of the last to announce the relaxing, we are also in a position where we can observe those countries already 'relaxed'. Imagine at the point of our three weeks extension in May that suddenly there's a sharp spike in new infections somewhere. Why on earth would we relax then if we knew what was coming again. The blame game would be going on again.


If we promise something now and have that taken away as well that won't go down too well either. I think most sensible people know that precarious position, but a lot wouldn't.


I think they should announce the extension and then say they will review in two to three weeks with relaxation measures depending on news from elsewhere. I would use us being two-three weeks behind other countries to our 'advantage' in this case. Why commit ourselves now when we can observe.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 10:29:26

 


I don't think this is how it's done currently, but I can't remember the article I read. A coroner is involved only if a doctor did not see or treat the person for the condition from which they died within 28 days of death.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Yes, that sounds right, which is why we need to be testing in care homes.  Otherwise we won’t have the correct stats and they can’t include deaths from Covid if they haven’t been confirmed as such. 


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xioni2
16 April 2020 10:30:51

Here is one article  about the death certificates at care homes, it beggars belief that until 6 April, the Care Quality Commission did not ask for information on coronavirus deaths and only started doing so when it realised the information coming back was out of line with reports of a rising death toll.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 10:30:55


 There have been various reports (including a whistleblower on Channel 4 news) that this number is underestimated as some GPs haven't seen the deceased in the previous 28 days and sometimes they are not seeing their bodies either. 


The forms used by care homes also didn't have an entry for CV19 until the end of last week.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I can say that from my limited experience that is what happens. The cause of death for a frail old person is usually written automatically as whatever they were suffering from when last seen by a physician. There is little or no attempt to verify that this was the case or consider that it might be something different.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Phil G
16 April 2020 10:36:41


 


Also looks like it’s going to be a pretty miserable Christmas! 😒


Originally Posted by: John p 


I think the short term is more concerning as that will determine the medium term. As regards Christmas, while certain sectors rely on the window of summer activity and trading, a lot of businesses also survive on the lead up to Christmas. Just too far to think ahead yet. All our surmising now, things will probably look quite different to all the outcomes being mentioned. All such an unknown!

llamedos
16 April 2020 10:41:53


 


It seems our extension is a gimme with another three weeks.


While we will be one of the last to announce the relaxing, we are also in a position where we can observe those countries already 'relaxed'. Imagine at the point of our three weeks extension in May that suddenly there's a sharp spike in new infections somewhere. Why on earth would we relax then if we knew what was coming again. The blame game would be going on again.


If we promise something now and have that taken away as well that won't go down too well either. I think most sensible people know that precarious position, but a lot wouldn't.


I think they should announce the extension and then say they will review in two to three weeks with relaxation measures depending on news from elsewhere. I would use us being two-three weeks behind other countries to our 'advantage' in this case. Why commit ourselves now when we can observe.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Agree with all of this.


"Life with the Lions"

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Brian Gaze
16 April 2020 10:43:24
Just watched some of Merkel's press conference. Like chalk and cheese compared to Trump. The UK approach is somewhere in the middle. She explained the situation extremely well IMO.
Brian Gaze
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xioni2
16 April 2020 10:47:25

Just watched some of Merkel's press conference. Like chalk and cheese compared to Trump. The UK approach is somewhere in the middle. She explained the situation extremely well IMO.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Her successor candidates who advocate a prolonged lockdown have become much more popular than those who prioritise the economy. As is usually the case, people prioritise health, life and family above everything else (while our lot stupidly thought the British public wouldn't support a lockdown).


 

llamedos
16 April 2020 10:52:34

Just watched some of Merkel's press conference. Like chalk and cheese compared to Trump. The UK approach is somewhere in the middle. She explained the situation extremely well IMO.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I haven't watched it .


What I do wonder sometimes is what people remember. Is it the content or is it the presentation ?


"Life with the Lions"

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Brian Gaze
16 April 2020 11:20:32


I haven't watched it .


What I do wonder sometimes is what people remember. Is it the content or is it the presentation ?


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


In the case of Merkel it is very much the content. She is sitting down and talking without any slides or props or silly slogans behind her back! Her presentation style is very straight forward and she is treating her audience in a grown up way. Johnson for all his theatrical bluster and grandiose language would do well to watch and learn. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
16 April 2020 11:23:06

One thing governments could do is give an indication of what the threshold is for reimposing their respective lockdowns. For example, if infections rise above x daily we bringing the shutters back down. At least it would help people prepare.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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xioni2
16 April 2020 11:26:40


One thing governments could do is give an indication of what the threshold is for reimposing their respective lockdowns. For example, if infections rise above x daily we bringing the shutters back down. At least it would help people prepare.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The problem with all this, is that everything is lagged and things could get out of hand again before governments know it. Unless testing improves massively, the number of confirmed infections today in the UK describe the state of the epidemic ~2 weeks ago. Reacting to the latest data is ill advised.

Gavin D
16 April 2020 11:29:15
In the times today

Schools outside coronavirus hotspots such as London and Birmingham could reopen from next month under plans being considered by ministers. Ministers are also considering opening primary schools before secondary schools.
John p
16 April 2020 11:38:22

In the times today

Schools outside coronavirus hotspots such as London and Birmingham could reopen from next month under plans being considered by ministers. Ministers are also considering opening primary schools before secondary schools.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I’ve just read that article (seems to be no paywall) and I honestly have no idea what these ‘experts’ and ‘researchers’ are thinking. It’s like they’ve never lived in the real world or seen a typical school in operation. 
They’re also floating the idea of the 20-30 year olds returning to work first. Who’s going to manage them?


edit: paywall back on!


Camberley, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 11:39:02


 I can say that from my limited experience that is what happens. The cause of death for a frail old person is usually written automatically as whatever they were suffering from when last seen by a physician. There is little or no attempt to verify that this was the case or consider that it might be something different.


Originally Posted by: RobN 

From my experience.  The coroner’s office rang me to verify that my mum had been seen by her GP within so many days of her dying, to enable the GP to write the death certificate.  Otherwise it would have been down to the coroner to determine cause of death.  The coroner also rang me to make sure I was happy with what was being put on the death certificate before the registrar issued it. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Heavy Weather 2013
16 April 2020 11:39:38

In the times today

Schools outside coronavirus hotspots such as London and Birmingham could reopen from next month under plans being considered by ministers. Ministers are also considering opening primary schools before secondary schools.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


There are all these ministers saying these things. The government should therefore be laying this out clearly this evening. Otherwise confusion will reign.


If they just say lockdown for another three weeks and that’s it, I’ll be annoyed.


Someone is briefing these papers and the government have a responsibility to be clear with the facts  


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
16 April 2020 11:39:53

Coronavirus: EasyJet to leave middle plane seats empty


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52306868


What are they going to do when the plane is on the stand after landing but the doors haven't opened? At that point everyone stands up in the aisle. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
16 April 2020 11:45:10


If recent reports are correct, testing isn’t yet reliable enough to be rolled out nationally, so I think we’re a while off that yet.  Then there are the logistics, the distribution, recording results etc, as we’re much further down the line than other countries that used this method. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


And yet, South Korea have used this tactic from the start - and the impact of CV19 on both number of cases/deaths and the wider economy has been a lot lower than we have had here. In Germany, where they were not as rigorous as SK but still embarked on a much wider programme of testing, and their cases/deaths are below ours and some restrictions are to be relaxed soon.


Testing works - it's just that a lot of resources need to be devoted to the whole trace-test-isolate function, and it needs to be applied universally and with strict adherence to any isolation order.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Heavy Weather 2013
16 April 2020 11:47:10
Scotland has confirmed an additional 80 deaths.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
16 April 2020 11:48:31


 


 


And yet, South Korea have used this tactic from the start - and the impact of CV19 on both number of cases/deaths and the wider economy has been a lot lower than we have had here. In Germany, where they were not as rigorous as SK but still embarked on a much wider programme of testing, and their cases/deaths are below ours and some restrictions are to be relaxed soon.


Testing works - it's just that a lot of resources need to be devoted to the whole trace-test-isolate function, and it needs to be applied universally and with strict adherence to any isolation order.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 Indeed. It makes a farce out of Hancock's statement that it is proving impossible to find more people to test in the UK. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
westv
16 April 2020 11:51:04
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the large reduction in any public toilets including those that are in businesses. I wonder how those with bladder problems cope.
At least it will be mild!
Heavy Weather 2013
16 April 2020 11:52:53


 


 Indeed. It makes a farce out of Hancock's statement that it is proving impossible to find more people to test in the UK. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Indeed, this is his get out clause when he doesn't hit the target of 100K. He is already laying the groundwork.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
16 April 2020 11:55:02


They’re also floating the idea of the 20-30 year olds returning to work first. Who’s going to manage them?


Originally Posted by: John p 


Not to mention what will happen with those 20-30 year olds who still live with their parents.

Tim A
16 April 2020 11:57:27


Here is one article  about the death certificates at care homes, it beggars belief that until 6 April, the Care Quality Commission did not ask for information on coronavirus deaths and only started doing so when it realised the information coming back was out of line with reports of a rising death toll.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


A couple of things with this:


The main problem is that there was/is a lack of testing in care homes, so data won't say died from COVID unless they tested positive. 


CQC data comes from death notifications which managers complete.  It relies on the managers providing accurate information (they sometimes don't get to see the death certificate, just hear verbally what the COD is or not at all). The question asks "Cause of Death - (If known)" as in many cases it won't be known by the manager. 


ONS can extract the data from death certificate data. This is surely the most accurate way, but it can't be done in real time. 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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