As the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

The key issues are whether it creates an immune response, whether that immune response is sufficient, how long it lasts and whether there are any (nasty) side-effects.

The last two won't be answered quickly.

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Positives:

1) Very credible team of experts

2) Going into human trials this week

Negatives

1) Other vaccines are already being tested on humans so the Oxford announcement isn't a quantum leap forward

2) As Vallance said most vaccines fail

As you may know I play the probability game in weather forecasting and will do the same here. I expect the Oxford trial to fail, however it may provide some very valuable info which can be used elsewhere.

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My concern would be that our government is showing excessive caution. By all means take the necessary care but don't rule out the possibility of relaxing measures if the situation improves. I think that it's a problem that our PM, a trained doctor, has decided to do an 8 hour shift in a hospital each week. It must surely take from his ability to be objective without making a y meaningful difference. Surely the time that he's spending doctoring would be better spent taoiseaching? 

I can't link now but a large fruit firm here has come under fire for flying in 200 Bulgarian workers. The firm tested them before they boarded a plane and will isolate them for 2 weeks. Thereafter they will live away from the native community. Seems responsible enough to me. Our own government supported moves at EU level to assist with the supply of seasonal workers. Clearly, these workers are needed or there will be food shortages come Autumn. Varadkar said that he was uncomfortable with this and suggested that they should have looked for Irish workers to do this work when the dogs in the street know that this simply isn't an option. Even if Irish workers were willing, they would not have the training nor for the most part, the stamina to do the work. This is suggestive of a government which cannot look beyond the immediate health issues.

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I wasn't thinking about their careers; I was thinking about lifting the level of competence generally and in those two key ministries specifically.

Why aren't more tests being carried out?  I would guess that announcing something and having the the chain of command in place to make it all happen are two very different things and the latter simply isn't in place.  We are trying to put radically new processes in place, such as involving private sector and other laboratories; I can well imagine that there's a lot of head-scratching going on. Having people working from home won't be helping. Let's not forget that the Welsh government also failed to gear up to its target.

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France urges Apple and Google to ease privacy rules on contact tracing

“We’re asking Apple to lift the technical hurdle to allow us to develop a sovereign European health solution that will be tied our health system,” France’s digital minister said.

Contact tracing apps that do not conform to the new privacy requirements can still be built, but they face strict limits, particularly on Apple phones. They don’t work when “backgrounded”, as when another app or game is in use on the phone, nor when the screen is locked entirely.

Some countries have forged ahead despite the limitations, such as Singapore’s TraceTogether contact tracing app. Others, including the UK, have privately expressed concern, while maintaining amicable relations with the two tech firms publicly.

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Personally I would put much less priority on privacy during this crisis

Head expecting school to open in June.

Firstly to update you – I am sure that you are aware that there is some speculation about when schools will reopen.  At present, I expect us to return in June after the half term break.  In the meantime, you should continue to work in the same teams on a rota basis

8 children today still no mention of PPE

 

He drove without a licence or insurance while already disqualified. Those offences alone are enough to get you sent to jail.

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I agree but there is a key difference this time, which is the use of genetic engineering methods.  The positive is that we (the Oxford team) should be starting with something that is engineered to mimic the SARS-Cov2 structure.  Whether that triggers the necessary immune response is another matter, as is whether the vaccine has unforeseen side-effects.

So, yes, 'the probability game' is probably the right approach - but we could be looking at ECM output rather than GFS on a bad day.

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Thanks for everyone’s responses on the Oxford vaccine.

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A 28 year ban from driving. Wowsers.

Good though, another cretin who thinks the rules don’t apply to him. 

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That would be a deviation from the picture north of the border as John Swinney (Education Secretary) essentially said this morning on the BBC that schools would not reopen before the summer break.

As for the vaccine, who knows but we won’t have one until “we” try, so at least it is a possibility.

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To me that seems like a very sensible way forward.

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I agree, even if the encouraging signs are there before summer I think that extra break would just make things even safer. It also gives a little bit more certainty in terms of forward planning etc.

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More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Personally, I have an old fashioned Nokia 3G phone with no apps - that is how I like it.

Deliberate policy on my part - I work in the industry and I don't like letting too much information seep out there. I don't use Facebook or Whatsapp or Instagram or any of those social media apps. I do have a Twitter account, but mostly for accessing Tweets other Twats have made. The only intrusive app I really use is YouTube and I do Google a lot, but I have Adblock installed.

Of course, even with an old fashioned 3G Nokia handset, they can triangulate to find out where you are and SMS messages are stored on a central server, but the phone can always be switched off and left at home.

Most people have no clue about the mass of data accumulated about them, regardless of GDPR. They can find out where you are, where you have been and what you like to look at and order online.

COVID-19 won't make me change my mind about letting the state and corporates keep track of me.

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Remdesivir is the more promising "old" remedy which might improve outcomes for COVID-19 patients.

It is currently under trial in several countries.

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And Bozo exploiting his illness to get sympathy and hide away and allow his minions to take the flak for his decisions. He will suddenly emerge when the death rate drops next week

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Something I can’t seem to get my head around is why did the Government say that they were following the science initially around mass gatherings.

Did our scientists not believe there was conclusive evidence around chains of transmission to those who are closest to you. This despite evidence in Italy and Spain?

The more you sit there and think about those gigs, football matches and Cheltenham - the more infuriating it becomes.

Surely even then basic understanding of transmission would have meant you should act.

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You still have a lot of people going out to work, mostly because they have to - healthcare, police, food production, sanitation, and other essential services etc. But we also still have unlimited online shopping and food takeaways permitted, so that whole process will lead to virus spread. 

Our lockdown is soft and not really enforced as we don't have the police numbers nor the political will to do so. I have seen a lot of household mixing take place in my own street for example

 

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Now trying to Nick dogs no chance with my 3 mountain dogs they tend to be more than capable without even being upset

But please dog owners beware it’s a scam

https://en-gb.facebook.com/EssexDogWatch/photos/pb.547068525360896.-2207520000../2998665813534476/?type=3&theater

 

 

 

Again increasing amount of traffic and amount of people about in this area today I noted the first increases from yesterday hoping it’s just a local issue.

I would expect another push from the Government regarding the Lockdown soon if this is not the case.

 

I have completed a big school order today and the head has signed it I think she does really believe it will happen in June weather teachers have sit ins because of lack of PPE is another thing I sense that the water has some bubbles and many not happy.

dont forget PPE would also have to cover all support staff.

As for myself Michael I’m happy with the safer Motto of September

 

I agree but don’t forget Scottish school summer hols are earlier than English school hols.  English schools wouldn’t go back until September. 

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I am also amazed how Wilko can stay open seem to sell very little food I’m not knocking it as it’s very handy but noted many couples have the DIY grub.

is that essential shopping?

Yes although it has dropped in the past couple of days, I do wonder if the new cases rate remains c4k, because there will be infections and there is no getting away there will be more, what figure the govt will be happy with to relax lockdown.

Their main stat was being happy there was enough capacity to handle hospitalisations and stop the spike. At present they have managed to avoid that. As beds become available through death and some recovery, it would not take much relaxing of restrictions to increase new infections and threaten the hospital capacity figure. All surmising as a lot on here but any relaxing may only last a month unless more capacity is created. But how much do you create?