You quoted a trend at me earlier in the week if I recall? , I mentioned a jump up ??

All of the numbers rely on human nature so by that only its only at the end can we see if they are reliable , as it stands I think we will see deaths recorded every day for months - running easily into 2021 

As I said in my post above , we are relying on human nature , actually PPE also .

I most certainly wouldn't have faith in any of the above 

Wd have done had I seen it, John - just picking up on the theme - it obviously applies to all the related posts. What's the point on chasing back when you are in step?

R.

I'm now another thinking the 'lockdown' is crumbling.

I'm being a bit hypocritical because I'm going out to supermarkets 3 or 4 times a week (it's been years since we were in the habit of doing a 'big shop' and in normal times, between us we'd probably go 5 or 6 times) - but importantly I vigilantly keep to the 2m distancing.

An increasingly substantial minority of others are no longer bothering. Last night I went the chippy and the queue stretched outside, with everyone seeming to adhere to 2m distancing. I joined the back of the queue but then this fat, middle-aged chav-looking woman waddles past, mouth-breathing, within 2ft of me, then stands about 2ft behind me. I shot her an incredulous look and, because I'd left about 8ft in front of me, shuffled up a bit. She must have took the hint that I was p*ssed off, even if she wasn't arsed about keeping distance, because she did then let the gap build to 2m. But then her fat, chav-looking, mouth-breathing daughter also waddles up and stands in front of her, cutting the distance to me. Luckily the queue moved on fairly quickly and you get called into the shop to give your order, then stand back to await your order being ready. There's enough room for 2m distancing with about 4 or 5 people inside. I'd been waiting for a few minutes when one older woman, well into her 70's, stands right in front of me, almost standing on my toes, pondering what she wants from the big display menu. And ponders. I move aside to my left as far as I can without encroaching on someone else's 2m space. She then orders, and backs up to stand between me and the guy standing 2m to my right. I feel like saying "FFS, we're making massive sacrifices mostly so your generation don't all die, and you can't be arsed keeping the social distancing that we all are". But my order is ready and I just tut, walk forwards, pay, leave.

Then today, the queue at the local Morrisons must be over 200 long. No doubt people buying BBQ stuff. I drive onto Tesco about half a mile away... queue even bigger, around 300m long. On I go. Aldi similar, so is ASDA. And then, Lidl. No queue. Great! I get a trolley, apply my hand gel and some to the handle, and enter. I can see why there's no queue... there's no enforcement of maximum numbers. I decide to make the best of it but half the people don't even bother with any pretence of social distancing. I fill my trolley and head to the tills. Oddly, everyone queuing now rigidly observes 2m distancing. Once through, I move to a space on the packing shelf, on the end leaving 2m to the person to the side of me. Someone quickly plonks themselves in the gap to fill their bags. I shuffle right to the end, but some women with 2 packs of flowers (essential...? ), puts one down almost on my bag, and proceeds to tear off the price label on the other whilst stood a foot away from me, then repeats with the other.

I figure after 4 weeks of doing a decent job of keeping myself out of harm's way, today and last night has potentially undone all that.

And not wanting to sound snobbish, but without exception the people not bothering with social distancing look like they're from the 'DE' social demographic.

It is grim. The trend is down but it is not dropping like a stone. At this rate, it will be many weeks before restrictions can be eased in a way that will allow anything like normal service to be resumed. I suspect that pubs, restaurants and cafés will remain closed for a long time yet.

Italy and Spain demonstrate that once the plateau is reached, the descent is slow and frustrating.

Can I just say this phrase lockdown

There hasn't been one , so why are people using it , a large % of the population has carried on working , people have  been walking around since day one and continue to do so .

Its been restrictions with a " please do " from the government 

A lockdown would have slowed the virus dramatically by now , instead we are still seeing 500 , 600 , 700 + deaths a day .

The whole of the UK should have been shut and I mean shut for the two weeks of Easter just 8 working days 

As yourself and many others have mentioned Justin, it seems fairly clear that the 'lockdown' is slowly crumbling of its own accord. It's by no means a return to normal but compared to the first few weeks the increase in traffic and numbers of people out and about are very noticeable. There also seems to be lots more shops open with varying degrees of social distancing being observed.

It will be very interesting to see if there is a rise in new cases in a couple of weeks time. If there is I'm not sure where we'd go from there?

If there is an increase there will be only one solution 

I agree that the drop in the number of deaths is more likely to be painfully slow and the 'lockdown' will probably last until mid/late May. We don't even know what is going on in our care homes yet.

At least that would give even more time to the govt to prepare a proper test - trace - isolate strategy.Like Brian though, I am concerned about the reliance on an app. it should only be supplementary and we need human tracers. The Chinese had ~10,000 in Wuhan alone. 

Good post Saint 

I can relate to that , and yes I go out shopping twice maybe three times a week but adhere to every rule going and wear a mask when in the shop and I scan so don't have to deal with a cashier 

Yes, it's more of a shutdown. Only the Chinese locked down the people in their homes in Hubei, but I doubt that'd be possible here. 

 Psycho bitch Priti being wheeled out today to threaten lockdown breakers

Yet the govt is allowing DIY shops, car manufacturing and building sites to re-open, all of which will increase traffic and transport use and human contact

The mixed messaging is partly to blame for this crumbling of lockdown.

Like Saint, there are massive queues outside all the supermarkets round here

A true lockdown means no shops open, even food shops, and nobody is physically allowed to leave their house.

However you’d need the military to help, and the panic buying seen a month or so ago would have been a walk in the park in comparison. The Government would need to deliver food to people’s homes. 

Or do you mean people should be allowed to shop for essentials, but not go out to exercise? Would they be allowed to walk to the shop? How many people? Would families be allowed to walk to the shop together? How far would they be allowed to walk to? Would you be allowed to drive to the shop? 

Once you start thinking about it , it’s more complicated than you realise. 

For the 8 working days of Easter ? really , I have to disagree , sorry 

UK data

• 813 new deaths


• 23,115 tested


• 4,913 positive 

Have read quite a lot of speculation but one thing i read which is causing extra concern is what happens if the lockdown being loosened does result in a second wave? What would people's reaction to a second lockdown be? Would they blame the government for getting it wrong? This isn't just a party political concern, if people just decide to not obey a further lockdown then what happens? Call in the heavy mob to enforce lockdown, curfews, etc? I think most people are aware of the seriousness of the situation but will people struggling with little money feel they have already done their bit, especially if they think they have already have covid-19 and so can't get it again etc? 

Edit: and yes, i don't like the term lockdown either. It seems a bit odd to be able to go out for a decent length bike ride in something as severe sounding as a lockdown.

Confirmed rate for positive tests is 21.25%

You are probably right for Easter. 

Yes, can report similar behaviour, especially inside the shops when there seems to be no consideration of others.

Outside, they seem to behave and the spend the queuing time staring at their phones or talking very loudly to each other or to someone on the phone

Ethnic groups also seem  less good at observing the rules and anecdotally I have seen plenty of household mixing among the Asian and Black families round here

We knew this was coming back in January but denied it

With planning why not ? One member of the household to the shop once a week , so that only 2 visits , hardly difficult is it. 

In the harshest of Winters people stay inside so why would the two weeks of Easter be any different .

Yes of course the military would have had to be involved 

Yes I appreciate the logistics would be hard ……………………..but how  hard are the logistics of a relaxation going to be , equally as , but still have to be done.

I cant prove it but I suspect it would have had a big impact