theweatheroutlook

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Joe Bloggs
03 June 2020 20:48:46


But the ECM mean in comparison is very poor in terms of pressure. It may warm up a bit (it can't really get much colder than the weekend looks set to be), but the pressure patterns are low pressure dominated, slack low pressure with heavy or torrential rain on a number of days. I fear we will be talking about flooding in 10-14 days time.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think we just need to go with the flow and comment objectively on what’s on offer as we see it in front of us. 


The outcome doesn’t necessarily need to be an extreme one - in my experience you often end up looking silly if you doggedly set yourself a prediction without room for any manoeuvre. 


Ignoring the ECM mean - the op run at least does not show copious amounts of rain or flooding - it shows relatively high pressure for much of the time, especially in the north, with the risk of some heavy rain at times, especially further south, maybe in the form of thunderstorms. Nothing massively out of the ordinary for this time of year - a fairly typical summer setup. 


Unsettled at times (mixed in with some more settled days) would be my interpretation of tonight’s output. I am not seeing day after day of washout conditions and I don’t think you are either. 


We’ll see. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
moomin75
03 June 2020 21:22:06


 


I think we just need to go with the flow and comment objectively on what’s on offer as we see it in front of us. 


The outcome doesn’t necessarily need to be an extreme one - in my experience you often end up looking silly if you doggedly set yourself a prediction without room for any manoeuvre. 


Ignoring the ECM mean - the op run at least does not show copious amounts of rain or flooding - it shows relatively high pressure for much of the time, especially in the north, with the risk of some heavy rain at times, especially further south, maybe in the form of thunderstorms. Nothing massively out of the ordinary for this time of year - a fairly typical summer setup. 


Unsettled at times (mixed in with some more settled days) would be my interpretation of tonight’s output. I am not seeing day after day of washout conditions and I don’t think you are either. 


We’ll see. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

We will indeed see. I think the general pattern for June is locked in now, as a semi stationary trough which is blocked on all sides, which will keep us cool and very wet for 2-3 weeks minimum, but as always I hope I am wrong.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2020 21:30:57
All comes down now to whether we get the second wave.

We know the first is hitting us, between now and Sunday. Whether we get that second tumbling low heading over us mid next week is less certain. If we do, then this does look very much like a locked in pattern for a while.

In June 95 there were several waves of cold northerlies with lows spinning around the Eastern edge of the mid Atlantic high. Never got that wet though.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
03 June 2020 21:47:55
I’ll gladly take a repeat of summer 95 (and not just for the weather 😉 )
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2020 22:12:44

I’ll gladly take a repeat of summer 95 (and not just for the weather 😉 )

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Greatest summer of my life. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
03 June 2020 22:30:06

I’ll gladly take a repeat of summer 95 (and not just for the weather 😉 )

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


You can only pop your cherry once, you know


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
03 June 2020 22:35:44


 


Greatest summer of my life. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


In terms of weather, it's up there.


But summer '91 was probably mine.


This was fun - I was there (in body, anyway)!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzlZVattz0k


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
03 June 2020 22:45:43
18z GFS increases the utter horrendousness by a huge magnitude. About as bad a summer run as you could get. CET will be through the floor with possibly 3-4c below average and copious rainfall. We can absolutely write off June now. I am very confident that June will be utterly horrific, and we all need to brace ourselves for one of the worst summer months in our lifetime.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
idj20
03 June 2020 23:04:51


 


Greatest summer of my life. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 



Summer '95 was horrendous for me as it was my first season as a full time tomato greenhouse worker. Talk about the baptism of fire!

While the outlook appears to be showing a more mixed first half of June, any rain I'll get to have be most appreciated by my very thirsty looking lawn but the $64,000 question is how much of it will I get to have in the next 7 to 10 days. That's what I may ask myself tomorrow when I do my bi-weekly Cloud Master forecast covering the weekend and into next week.

Folkestone Harbour. 
picturesareme
03 June 2020 23:24:34

18z GFS increases the utter horrendousness by a huge magnitude. About as bad a summer run as you could get. CET will be through the floor with possibly 3-4c below average and copious rainfall. We can absolutely write off June now. I am very confident that June will be utterly horrific, and we all need to brace ourselves for one of the worst summer months in our lifetime.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


is it horrific or is it good growing conditions? 

moomin75
03 June 2020 23:31:48


 


is it horrific or is it good growing conditions? 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Good growing conditions until all the produce is drowned and fields flooded so we cannot harvest anything but rotten food.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2020 04:29:54

Much improved GFS this morning settling things down as early as 96h. V decent push in from the Azores high.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2020 05:18:10

GEM builds in the Azores high even stronger than the GFS this morning. Much better so far today can the ECM follow?


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
04 June 2020 06:05:02

18z GFS increases the utter horrendousness by a huge magnitude. About as bad a summer run as you could get. CET will be through the floor with possibly 3-4c below average and copious rainfall. We can absolutely write off June now. I am very confident that June will be utterly horrific, and we all need to brace ourselves for one of the worst summer months in our lifetime.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Were you drinking last night? 3-4C below average? Can anyone confirm when a month was that far below average.


Anyhow, this comment hasn’t aged well. GFS ok this morning. Let’s see what the ECM brings.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
marco 79
04 June 2020 06:09:29
Yep GFS showing a more settled pattern from early next week although UK remains on the cool side of high pressure..I'd take that..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
moomin75
04 June 2020 06:21:48


 


Were you drinking last night? 3-4C below average? Can anyone confirm when a month was that far below average.


Anyhow, this comment hasn’t aged well. GFS ok this morning. Let’s see what the ECM brings.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Last night's 18z was absolutely horrific and was showing a CET of around 10-11c which would be 3-4c below the long term average. There's no dressing it up, that's what it was showing. I concur this morning's GFS is better, but the mean is still unsettled.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
04 June 2020 06:27:39
I think we can probably “ write off” the rest of this week if we are looking at warm settled weather. Beyond that it is somewhat a case of guesswork.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Joe Bloggs
04 June 2020 06:45:32

Ridges of high pressure from the west the most common theme across all output this morning , including the ECM which is rolling out now.


Relatively finely balanced though with low pressure not too far away. 


As Doc says beyond this weekend is still uncertain, but into next week, some strong hints that a return to high pressure is probably more likely than an Armageddon-type flood. 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2020 06:54:14

Yes ECM joins the Azores high party this morning much better. Put away your ark's people.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
04 June 2020 07:00:22


Yes ECM joins the Azores high party this morning much better. Put away your ark's people.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Very precarious and still potentially unsettled, but a step back from the brink on these runs. Personally I think it will likely revert back to something a lot worse, but time will tell.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
04 June 2020 07:04:18


Very precarious and still potentially unsettled, but a step back from the brink on these runs. Personally I think it will likely revert back to something a lot worse, but time will tell.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Or, it could turn potentially more unsettled than not, but without anything extreme. 


It isn’t all or nothing. There isn’t much in the output that suggests anything particularly noteworthy - whether it’s a heatwave or copious amounts of rain (as much as we need the latter). 


My gut suggests we’ll see a very British mixture between the two scenarios. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
04 June 2020 07:24:06


Last night's 18z was absolutely horrific and was showing a CET of around 10-11c which would be 3-4c below the long term average. There's no dressing it up, that's what it was showing. I concur this morning's GFS is better, but the mean is still unsettled.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You were not making CET predictions of 3-4C below average based on one run were you?

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
04 June 2020 07:25:58


 


Or, it could turn potentially more unsettled than not, but without anything extreme. 


It isn’t all or nothing. There isn’t much in the output that suggests anything particularly noteworthy - whether it’s a heatwave or copious amounts of rain (as much as we need the latter). 


My gut suggests we’ll see a very British mixture between the two scenarios. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Indeed Joe. What’s clear at the moment is it could go either way. However, I am not seeing the washout Moomin is forecasting. In fact looking at the ensembles, it appears any rain is more showery rather than frontal.


All to play for this morning.


 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
David M Porter
04 June 2020 07:40:16


 


Indeed Joe. What’s clear at the moment is it could go either way. However, I am not seeing the washout Moomin is forecasting. In fact looking at the ensembles, it appears any rain is more showery rather than frontal.


All to play for this morning.


 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I am not seeing any signs of a washout either, certainly not on a consistent basis. Yes, there have been some rather more unsettled runs thrown into the mix along with those which have been generally more settled, but I have seen nothing which makes me think a re-run of the likes of 2007 and 2012 is likely to happen.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
04 June 2020 07:44:53


 


You were not making CET predictions of 3-4C below average based on one run were you?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Nope. I was saying "on that run" the CET was way below average, which it was. I was commenting on the run I'd just seen.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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