Model Output Discussion 18/03/20 13:14 >>>>· Page 29

moomin75
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 08:39:22

You have a weird obsession with poor weather in early summer Mooms ? Did you fall in a puddle or something as a child ?

I hope that the ECM does verify to be honest, especially if that arrives with some warm air and thunder.

Originally Posted by: Gusty

Actually, I am not quite so fussed about poor weather this year, what will be will be. But you're right, I do obsess about bad summer weather since cricket is my absolute passion in life and poor summers play havoc with this massively. Since there is no cricket, it can do as it pleases this year to be honest, but I can't just switch off, even so.

So yes, I am somewhat obsessed with summer weather, probably more so than winter....Although there is no cricket for me this year, I kind of still prefer summers to be summery, rather than perpetual Autumn.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 08:58:08

#702

I think this morning's ECM is definitely a worse case scenario and an outlier for air pressure from day 5. Huge uncertainty where that low ends up day 4\5 even more than yesterday. The 12z ECM could be very different later.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Gusty
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:01:35

#703

Actually, I am not quite so fussed about poor weather this year, what will be will be. But you're right, I do obsess about bad summer weather since cricket is my absolute passion in life and poor summers play havoc with this massively. Since there is no cricket, it can do as it pleases this year to be honest, but I can't just switch off, even so.

So yes, I am somewhat obsessed with summer weather, probably more so than winter....Although there is no cricket for me this year, I kind of still prefer summers to be summery, rather than perpetual Autumn.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Ahh that explains it ! Thanks Mooms, you're not weird after all. .

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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BJBlake
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:24:52

#704

By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years lie that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving tweet the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions. We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately. Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL

BJBlake
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:25:52

#705

By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years like that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving to keep the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions.

We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately.

Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

Edited by user 06 June 2020 09:28:05 | Reason: Not specified

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:28:47

#706

This is a classic Rossby wave amplitude problem, ie zonal vs meridional. The difference is the small trough than dips down the East coast midweek on the ECM, UKMO and GEM, and doesn’t appear on GFS or ICON (which is the best run this morning).

What triggers the difference? It seems to be the speed with which the deep low off Greenland moves East. On the two latter runs it is positioned between Greenland and Iceland on Wednesday morning, straightening the jet stream across the North Atlantic and keeping low pressure North. On the “bad” runs it stays East of Greenland allowing the blob to our North to sink down.

See differences in jet stream between ICON and ECM on Wed am:

Originally Posted by: TimS

Fantastic post, cheers for the explanation Tim.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:53:19

#707

ICON 06z stays on team zonal, and is if anything a touch better. GFS dripping out: so far (by Tuesday pm) not quite as strong a jet as 00Z.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

AJ*
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:55:14

#708

Fantastic post, cheers for the explanation Tim.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Seconded! I was also going to thank Tim S for an informative and intelligent analysis of the differences in the model output.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

TimS
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 09:57:35

#709

Seconded! I was also going to thank Tim S for an informative and intelligent analysis of the differences in the model output.

Originally Posted by: AJ*

Thanks all. Sadly GFS seems to be losing its nerve at 06z.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

TimS
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 10:00:34

#710

Thanks all. Sadly GFS seems to be losing its nerve at 06z.

Originally Posted by: TimS

Wed morning on 06 GFS. Crumpled jet.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

moomin75
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 10:40:14

#711

Looks like GFS 6Z has woken up and smelled the coffee (the trough scenario). Next week looking wet.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

mulattokid
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 10:41:57

#712

Can someone please remind me how to contact a moderator?

Over 50% of pages taken over by one persons alternative requirements. All the useful stuff is lost! Again!

Edited by user 06 June 2020 10:58:50 | Reason: Not specified

Located in West London

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doctormog
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 11:02:26

#713

By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years lie that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving tweet the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions. We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately. Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake

Wair 6 hours...it’s the GFS.

That aside there are quite a few years where this has been the case re. no sub -10°C hPa in the Arctic Circle by the 12th of June. I can post lots of links although I’m not sure that would add much. (Some recent examples include from, a quick glance: 2011, 2010, 2005 and quite a few before then).

Here is the 06z 10 day (16th June) GFS op run https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH06_240_2.png the 12z will no doubt be different. There are also a few patches on the ECM 00z op run at day 19 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_2.png

Edited by user 06 June 2020 11:07:00 | Reason: Not specified

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 11:18:54

#714

A big low churning around just to the west of Ireland seems to be a growing theme . With luck could easily get a heatwave if it's too close a washout!

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

06 June 2020 12:14:37

#715

Stay on topic please. As mentioned in the UIA the other day I've not deleted a user account for a while and am getting itchy fingers. Once you're account is deleted it can't be restored.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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moomin75
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 12:28:08

#716

A big low churning around just to the west of Ireland seems to be a growing theme . With luck could easily get a heatwave if it's too close a washout!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Indeed. It's a knife edge situation...if the building blocks can be in the right places, we could get a real plume of heat. Looks really volatile though, so could we be looking at a really thundery spell? We haven't had that for many years.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

SJV
Guest

06 June 2020 13:25:52

#717

Indeed. It's a knife edge situation...if the building blocks can be in the right places, we could get a real plume of heat. Looks really volatile though, so could we be looking at a really thundery spell? We haven't had that for many years.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

It would be nice to get some proper thunderstorms going in the weeks to come. These popcorn showers we have at the moment make nice cloudscapes but little else.

TimS
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 16:08:46

#718

So, 12z time. Last chance for the final holdout of ICON to keep that sinking North Sea trough away. Let’s see...

No, ICON caves and joins the rest.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 16:12:50

#719

So, 12z time. Last chance for the final holdout of ICON to keep that sinking North Sea trough away. Let’s see...

No, ICON caves and joins the rest.

Originally Posted by: TimS

I think we can count ourselves very unlucky with that [censored]y little low it seems to mess everything up afterwards. Now looking very unsettled.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 16:23:48

#720

Nightmare output this afternoon copious amounts of rain by the looks of it. At least it will be warmer though.

All hail Moomin!

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

moomin75
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 16:28:36

#721

Nightmare output this afternoon copious amounts of rain by the looks of it. At least it will be warmer though.

All hail Moomin!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Yep....horrendous sums it up. The GFS looks like Day After Tomorrow charts with 3-4 low pressures circulating around.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 June 2020 16:32:27

#722

Yep....horrendous sums it up. The GFS looks like Day After Tomorrow charts with 3-4 low pressures circulating around.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

All because of that pesky low causing chaos.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

SJV
Guest

06 June 2020 16:33:06

#723

I think it's fair to say we have agreement that the outlook won't be especially settled We'll see how the ECM sits this evening but all signs point to blocking over Scandi and shallow low pressure close by/over the UK. It's positioning will determine how warm we can get from continental air wafting our way. Hopefully some warmth, humidity and thunder in the mix later next week