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Rob K
09 June 2020 19:01:39
Both GFS and ECM suggesting the chance of some decent warmth from the south by the third week of June. Finely balanced though with the chance of some cooler unsettled incursions from the west as well.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
09 June 2020 19:09:43

Both GFS and ECM suggesting the chance of some decent warmth from the south by the third week of June. Finely balanced though with the chance of some cooler unsettled incursions from the west as well.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


looks like a classic NW/SE split on the cards.


better, as is so often the case, the nearer you are to the white cliffs of Dover. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
09 June 2020 19:11:41
This weekend coming is interesting.

Points SE might squeeze a decent(ish) weekend out of it.

But with the trough in charge, heavy showers could pop up just about anywhere.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
idj20
09 June 2020 23:41:57


 


 


looks like a classic NW/SE split on the cards.


better, as is so often the case, the nearer you are to the white cliffs of Dover. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Or with a bit of luck, my famed west-facing front garden.  

Folkestone Harbour. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2020 07:07:13

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 offers hope for summer in the SE in a week's time but also quite a lot of rain.


GFS - low pressure patrolling up and down the west coast for some time, from Cornwall to Scotland where it finally fills Fri 26th June. It weakens occasionally allowing ridges of high pressure to develop notably Tue 16th and Tue 23rd, but the UK on the whole is on the edge of cool and warm so detailed forecasts look unpredictable. 


GEFS - warmer in a day or two then a long period with mean of runs close to seasonal normal, not as warm in SE as suggested above. Rain in the S mainly around Sat 12th and Sat 19th, drier in between  (unlike yesterday) and rain resuming later. Scotland very warm around Sun 14th; rainfall pattern similar but less accentuated. SW very wet at first.


ECM - disposes of the LP after Tue 16th and develops strong ridge of HP across the UK by Sat 20th. The contrast between GFS and ECM is much the same as yesterday


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
10 June 2020 08:30:17
ECM looks ripe for a dose of real heat from the south at the end of its run. GFS still doesn't seem to know what to do with the low pressure and just lets it womble around randomly for a couple of weeks. I'll go with ECM thanks 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Notty
10 June 2020 10:12:15

ECM looks ripe for a dose of real heat from the south at the end of its run. GFS still doesn't seem to know what to do with the low pressure and just lets it womble around randomly for a couple of weeks. I'll go with ECM thanks 🙂

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ECM parallel looking toasty too 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0&para=1

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Rob K
10 June 2020 10:25:34

This weekend coming is interesting.

Points SE might squeeze a decent(ish) weekend out of it.

But with the trough in charge, heavy showers could pop up just about anywhere.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Yes GFS 6Z now has 23C for parts on Saturday with an area from Lancashire down to East Anglia looking favoured for highest temperatures as showers hold the temperature down further SW. Then 24C for London on Sunday and up to 26C by Monday. The heat is creeping back in. 


 


It cools down a little bit after that, though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2020 16:11:10

Massive differences between the UKMO and GFS this afternoon. UKMO very changeable GFS great, has a great big high slap bang over us. Shame GFS has been so rubbish recently.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2020 16:39:11

GEM also rubbish looks like GFS is embarrassing itself again which is a shame because it's a lovely warm settled run.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
SJV
10 June 2020 17:04:39


GEM also rubbish looks like GFS is embarrassing itself again which is a shame because it's a lovely warm settled run.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Form suggests the ECM will back the others later on with GFS out on a limb. It'll be interesting 7-10 days from now to look back and see which model handled this the best.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2020 17:57:36
They're actually all quite similar in big picture terms. It's just that in a regime of slack pressure and a southerly displaced trough, you'll always get big variation between runs. The 850s are more consistent between runs and ENS members than the wet or dryness.

What I do quite like about this year so far, and both 2018 and 19 for that matter, is the default. In other words the basic pattern the weather goes back to once one we've gone off on one for a few days. In all the models the default this year is generally a zonal flow with an Icelandic low, low pressure over Greenland, and waves of ridging from the Azores. In 2007-2016 the default was often Greenland high and southward-displaced jet.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Whether Idle
10 June 2020 18:07:59

They're actually all quite similar in big picture terms. It's just that in a regime of slack pressure and a southerly displaced trough, you'll always get big variation between runs. The 850s are more consistent between runs and ENS members than the wet or dryness.

What I do quite like about this year so far, and both 2018 and 19 for that matter, is the default. In other words the basic pattern the weather goes back to once one we've gone off on one for a few days. In all the models the default this year is generally a zonal flow with an Icelandic low, low pressure over Greenland, and waves of ridging from the Azores. In 2007-2016 the default was often Greenland high and southward-displaced jet.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Excellent post and thanks for making it as I was lazily thinking pretty much the same thing.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2020 19:02:03

Not a terrible ECM  but probably showers or thunder storms most days but temps in any sunshine should be mid 20s in the SE and EA. Again signs of the Azores high late on we can but hope.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
10 June 2020 20:58:55


 


Yes GFS 6Z now has 23C for parts on Saturday with an area from Lancashire down to East Anglia looking favoured for highest temperatures as showers hold the temperature down further SW. Then 24C for London on Sunday and up to 26C by Monday. The heat is creeping back in. 


 


It cools down a little bit after that, though.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


The classic NW/SE split usually causes much strife on here!

Chingford
London E4
147ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2020 07:06:40

General agreement on LP near the UK for the next few days.


FAX keeps it over the UK to Mon 15th while a new centre winds up in biscay


GFS moves it slowly N-wards but the new LP is well W of Spain. After a period of slack LP, there is a more definite centre Sat 20th to the W of Ireland, filling and being replaced by ridge of HP Atlantic to Norway Tue 23rd. LP remains over France and that breaks through the ridge with first an undefined trough across the UK and a definite centre WesternIsles 1000 mb Sat 27th June


GEFS temps mean close to seasonal norm throughout (Scotland rather warm at first) though both op & control cooler from Sat 20th. Rain on and off throughout.


ECM places the LP Sat 20th to the E of UK and then suggests a zonal picture with winds from the SW

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2020 07:13:18

Things seem to be getting worse nothing overly settled on any model this morning. Temps not bad but nothing hot . Could be along wait until 30c.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
11 June 2020 07:41:13


 


 


The classic NW/SE split usually causes much strife on here!


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


I'm not seeing much if any sign of that kind of pattern on the models at the moment, tbh.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2020 07:59:40

Well the ECM mean has the Azores pushing in pretty well post day 8. 


When was the last time we didn't hit 30c in June 2016? I'd give u good odds on not getting there this year from where we are at the moment.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
11 June 2020 09:10:50


 


I'm not seeing much if any sign of that kind of pattern on the models at the moment, tbh.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


There was a couple of days ago but it seems to be deteriorating more generally now. High pressure notable by its absence after some encouraging runs earlier in the week 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
11 June 2020 09:26:51


Things seem to be getting worse nothing overly settled on any model this morning. Temps not bad but nothing hot . Could be along wait until 30c.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Indeed. And there was nearly a month's rainfall in some places yesterday....A lot more to come over the next 2 weeks at least.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
11 June 2020 09:46:02


Indeed. And there was nearly a month's rainfall in some places yesterday....A lot more to come over the next 2 weeks at least.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.


Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.


Funny old world. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Chichesterweatherfan2
11 June 2020 09:47:50
Virtually no rain here in Chichester after the heavy showers last Sunday afternoon...
moomin75
11 June 2020 10:35:05


 


Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.


Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.


Funny old world. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Actually it was relatively dry here, but there was an absolute deluge in Wales and the south west. Looking at the 0z and the 6z, this unsettled pattern is set to run and run. I feared this would be the case. It's so cold outside today. 12c at 11.30am in June is not much fun.


There is little doubt that all models are now pointing towards a wet to very wet June. Maybe warming up a bit soon thankfully, but nothing points to settled any time soon.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
11 June 2020 10:56:13


Actually it was relatively dry here, but there was an absolute deluge in Wales and the south west. Looking at the 0z and the 6z, this unsettled pattern is set to run and run. I feared this would be the case. It's so cold outside today. 12c at 11.30am in June is not much fun.


There is little doubt that all models are now pointing towards a wet to very wet June. Maybe warming up a bit soon thankfully, but nothing points to settled any time soon.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Hmm, the warming up will continue apace as we head into the weekend, and summery weather with the chance of thunderstorms in the south is nevertheless summery weather.


As I say, if the modelling was to be believed we'd be under biblical rains right now, and, we're not.


The weekend looks okay in the SE, worse, as is so often the case the further N/W you go.


NW/SE split looks the form horse. 


 

Chingford
London E4
147ft

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