theweatheroutlook

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moomin75
11 June 2020 11:00:47


 


Hmm, the warming up will continue apace as we head into the weekend, and summery weather with the chance of thunderstorms in the south is nevertheless summery weather.


As I say, if the modelling was to be believed we'd be under biblical rains right now, and, we're not.


The weekend looks okay in the SE, worse, as is so often the case the further N/W you go.


NW/SE split looks the form horse. 


 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Could be argued that some places did have "biblical rain" overnight, but obviously not everywhere ever will.


I think it'll warm up (it has to really) but it will remain unsettled for fair while.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
11 June 2020 11:52:18


 


Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.


Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.


Funny old world. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


We had quite a downpour a short while ago here, but the showers are of the hit and miss variety rather than the relentless frontal deluges that have delivered the shockers of 2007 etc. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
11 June 2020 11:56:17


 


We had quite a downpour a short while ago here, but the showers are of the hit and miss variety rather than the relentless frontal deluges that have delivered the shockers of 2007 etc. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Yes, I've just had decent shower that will help with the garden. It's sunny now. 


The rain is needed, so I'm not sure why some people seem to favour endless drought!

Chingford
London E4
147ft
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2020 12:47:31

This morning's runs, and GFS and ICON 06z, all looking very meh. Warmish (especially at night) but nothing special, pretty wet, not a huge amount of sunshine. Good growing weather for gardens I suppose.


The long term reset still seems on though - for an Icelandic low, Azores high and a NW/SE split starting up.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
11 June 2020 12:54:56

Leon Brown flagged up the possible disruption that Tropical Storm Cristobal could lead to when speaking to him last night. I wouldn't advise anyone to put all their eggs in one basket at the moment. Play the game...

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Downpour
11 June 2020 15:33:11


This morning's runs, and GFS and ICON 06z, all looking very meh. Warmish (especially at night) but nothing special, pretty wet, not a huge amount of sunshine. Good growing weather for gardens I suppose.


The long term reset still seems on though - for an Icelandic low, Azores high and a NW/SE split starting up.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


Yup. NW/SE cause much strife on TWO as they tend to lead to a niagara of IMBY accusations.


 


Yet the simple truth is that they are fairly typical British summer fare. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2020 18:47:51

Decent Azores push on the ECM tonight as early as day 7. Will it verify though?

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
11 June 2020 19:11:54


Leon Brown flagged up the possible disruption that Tropical Storm Cristobal could lead to when speaking to him last night. I wouldn't advise anyone to put all their eggs in one basket at the moment. Play the game...


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Where is that atm.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
11 June 2020 19:18:03


 


Where is that atm.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Cristobal_(2020) 


I believe it is lurking around Ontario currently.


Things look a bit mixed generally overall with a bit of everything in the outlook.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
11 June 2020 20:41:40


Decent Azores push on the ECM tonight as early as day 7. Will it verify though?


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It doesn't last though Ally. Very transient and all in all a continued unsettled pattern.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Saint Snow
12 June 2020 01:20:40

Play the game...


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downpour
12 June 2020 02:12:09


 


 


Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


laughing

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Rob K
12 June 2020 05:53:05


 


 


Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Well at least we know who writes those Met Office long rangers, now. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2020 06:59:34

GFS synoptics have the LP to the SW drifting N and filling by Wed 17th. after which a zonal flow sets is. One LP in this zonal setup gets uncomfortably close to Scotland Wed 24th and eventually pushes cool NW-lies down across all the UK Sun 28th as its remnants work their way into the N Sea


GEFS temps close to seasonal norm, perhaps a little cooler around from 24th as noted above, rain after today in the S gives way to a few days of dry weather in SE, then mostly small amounts in England from 17th onwards. Scottish temos  rather above normal at first, but rain is more general and after 24th quite significant amounts.


ECM similar to 17th but then not zonal; trough of LP from Iceland to France by Sun 21st - it's down the  west of the UK so the east may be warmer, even looking a bit thundery in the S on Mon 22nd

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
12 June 2020 08:42:23

Pretty decent ECM this morning showers around but we should be getting to 25c most days for the next 10 which s pretty good for June.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2020 09:24:10
It’s all very blobby and flabby at the moment. Hovering a lot around the tricky 1005-1015 range making even short term forecasting quite difficult.

When the music stops and things do tighten up, I just hope we’re not in a cyclonic westerlies pattern. A couple of recent runs have suggested this. Back to zonal flow, but with the jet quite a way South.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Downpour
12 June 2020 09:50:45


Pretty decent ECM this morning showers around but we should be getting to 25c most days for the next 10 which s pretty good for June.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yup. And as I forecast a good weekend upcoming for the SE in the near term. Looks like a beautiful breezy classic English late spring day tomorrow in south central England.


Quite different to what the doom mongers would have us believe. SE/NW split - classic fare really. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
12 June 2020 09:52:01


 


Well at least we know who writes those Met Office long rangers, now. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


cool

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Heavy Weather 2013
13 June 2020 05:50:20
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I have seen much much worse ensembles at this time of year for this part of the country.

Looking lovely for some useful weather. Warm, with perhaps a risk of some showers.

Hardly the biblical washout some (one) have/has been forecasting.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
13 June 2020 06:41:02

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I have seen much much worse ensembles at this time of year for this part of the country.

Looking lovely for some useful weather. Warm, with perhaps a risk of some showers.

Hardly the biblical washout some (one) have/has been forecasting.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Have you been seeing the torrential rain that some areas are having? I'm not saying I have been spot on, far from it, but its disingenuous to be blinkered to the fact that some areas have had more than a month's rainfall in the last 3 or 4 days.


I concur that things are not looking quite as bad as I had feared, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been very unsettled in large swathes of the UK. Hopefully, the models continue this improvement, although I think we will continue to see more than a small risk of us being plagued by slow moving troughing for a good while yet.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
13 June 2020 06:55:15


 


Have you been seeing the torrential rain that some areas are having? I'm not saying I have been spot on, far from it, but its disingenuous to be blinkered to the fact that some areas have had more than a month's rainfall in the last 3 or 4 days.


I concur that things are not looking quite as bad as I had feared, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been very unsettled in large swathes of the UK. Hopefully, the models continue this improvement, although I think we will continue to see more than a small risk of us being plagued by slow moving troughing for a good while yet.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Thats why I said in my part of the country. As the ensembles indicate, it’s wasn’t wise to complete write of the whole of June, July and August 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
13 June 2020 07:02:09


 


Thats why I said in my part of the country. As the ensembles indicate, it’s wasn’t wise to complete write of the whole of June, July and August 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

But if you look at ECM, it remains largely unsettled, and for much of the country. I am confident to write off June. I accept writing off July and August may be a bit premature, but seasonal patterns tend to set up early and then prove hard to shift. I think this summer will be largely unsettled/changeable, with a chance of it being very poor.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
13 June 2020 07:05:46

Glorious weather for many this weekend.  Temperatures above average away from the haar-ridden north east coastal fringe, and the GFS points well away from a doom-laden summer apocalypse.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Tim A
13 June 2020 07:13:28


Glorious weather for many this weekend.  Temperatures above average away from the haar-ridden north east coastal fringe, and the GFS points well away from a doom-laden summer apocalypse.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Nice summary.


I am looking forward to temperatures this weekend some 10c warmer than recent days, with the 20c + temperatures continuing for the foreseeable future.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
moomin75
13 June 2020 07:35:30


Glorious weather for many this weekend.  Temperatures above average away from the haar-ridden north east coastal fringe, and the GFS points well away from a doom-laden summer apocalypse.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

You are falling into the same trap that I often have done. GFS is far from infallible. Look at the ECM, very unsettled.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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