Didnt you use GFS to write the whole of summer off?

You can’t choose the model that best supports your theory.

Generally a blend of them usually materialises. If take warm and generally sunny, with a risk of a shower or two anytime summer. That’s a typical British summer.

From what I can see, it seems to be a case of GFS & UKMO against ECM this morning. The latter model keeps it fairly unsettled throughout its run, while the first two show it turning more generally settled once the current LP has declined and moved away. This is within the period of the next week or so as well.

My own view is that whenever there is any divergence between the big three models within the period of a week to ten days ahead, that is a sure indicator of considerable uncertainty going forward. IIRC, UKMO was the first model about ten days ago to pick up on the LP moving down from the north during the week just gone and then becoming stationary to the south of the UK, so as far as I'm concerned it could go either way.

Not saying the ECM won't verify, but the operational has been a significant outlier at days 9/10 for two consecutive runs now.

As others have said, a blended solution seems more likely. We're not returning to the remarkable pattern that dominated our spring, that much is clear. We're also not seeing a repeat of 2012 either. It just looks quite mixed with temperatures close to, if not a tad above average - all rather standard for the UK.

Looks like a 280 to 330 all out pitch to me at the moment. Couldn't become better for batting later in the summer.

Near perfect summer temps for me. Anything above 25c and I start to wilt.

Rather later than usual this morning - have had to fit in some shopping.

Jetstream - swirling around the UK in a not very coherent loop until Tue 16th, then splitting into two branches N & S of UK, the northern branch predominating while the southern branch breaks off to affect the Med. A separate loop breaks off from the northern branch to form a cut-off low mid Atlantic Sun 21st which enlarges and seriously affects the UK from the W by Fri while the rest of the stream fragments.

GFS 6z -LP currently over Ireland slowly filling and replaced by ridge of HP mid-Atlantic to Norway from Thu 18th. There is then a see-saw between this ridge with centres in Atlantic and Baltic and LP from the NW splitting it (Sun 21st  Sat 27th) and while in between the ridge re-forms (Tue 23rd)

GEFS - for the S a few fine days until rain pops up in different runs Thu 18th - Sun 28th. Atleast temps above average for the first half of this period. Scotland gets a drier period later on, around the 18th, but after that the control run delivers persistent rain, in other runsit comes and goes. Overall driest and warmest in E England.

ECM - similar to GFS to Sat 20th but the ridge is weaker and completely replaced by LP centre over N England by Tue 23rd

The ensemble data are notably drier than the main run for what it’s worth (certainly for this location). 

 https://weather.us/forecast/2657832-aberdeen/ensemble/euro/precipitation

The GEFS data are even drier http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1 

Perhaps it is the ECM operational run we need to be wary of?

Good 12s so far Azores pushing in nicely on the UKMO and GFS is a high pressure fest and very warm.

After an early June repeat of 1995:

GFS 12z gives us a late June repeat of 1995:

GEM also joins the Azores high party. Now come on ECM you know you want to!

Well ECM was a little late in turning up but it parties in style with an absolutely massive Azores high.

The inevitable backtrack has started. Nowhere near as good on the 0Z. Have we been led up the garden path yet again? Probably! We will obviously have to wait and see what ECM shows this morning, but GFS is far less settled, GEM is pretty ropey, UKMO doesn't seem to want to ridge the high back in strongly, and ICON has also stepped back.

GFS - current LP slowly fills to Fri 19th, when a col of sorts develops between a fairly deep LP on N Atlantic and the usual continental flabby LP. The Atlantic LP deepens Sun 21st and begins to dominate, swinging SW over Scotland by Wed 24th, weakening but then rejuvenating Sat 27th 985mb over Shetland. It moves off as the azores high approaches Tue 30th.  Less settled than previous day's runs.

GEFS - In the S, temps near seasonal average through to 30th but more scatter than yesterday, a wet spell Thu 18th after which varyng amounts in different runs. In Scotland, above seasonal average to Sun 21st, rain not setting in until then but more persistent thereafter. Wales and NW England get the worst of both worlds wrt rain, as some appears every day!

ECM  - more cheerful thn GFS, the Atlantic low on Sun 21st is steered off to the NE filling rapidly and the Azores High covers the UK by Wed 24th

10-day summary http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 warm in week 1 but bulge of cool Atlantic air week 2; rain shown in companion chart week 1 in S, in week 2 in NW

The 0s don't look to bad to me sunshine and showers but also warm then a growing theme of a decent Azores push from about day 6. Meanwhile 25c yesterday and clear gin sky's this morning. It could be a lot worse.

Famous last words on these threads: More runs needed.

Not sure how good the ECM Para is but it's a thing of beauty for summer lovers this morning.

The backtrack continues this morning. Nothing particularly good in any of the models this morning, and the GFS 6Z is particularly poor early next week with some heavy rain showing up on Tuesday and some absolutely torrential rain Wednesday night into Thursday.
I never bought into what it was showing the other day, this is far more likely to verify. The unsettled/wet summer continues.

You are missing a few covets or specifics in your post. I guess that depends on what you mean by poor or wet. The 06z GFS op run has the 7 day cumulative rainfall total here as 1 mm. In fact after the couple of days the rest of the week look great.

There is absolutely no sign of a sustained spell of decent summer weather for at least the next 2 weeks, based on all of the models, not just one. I hope that July will pick up, but the rest of June is certainly not looking great.