Just as I'm watching it uploading, I just knew you'd be there to tell us that!

I am more encouraged that ECM/UKMO has trended more settled because the GFS has been the biggest pile of pig swill going over the last few weeks.

GFS seems to be all over the place at the moment; very settled in one op run, and then the polar opposite in the next.

That said, it hasn't been alone recently in this respect.

Icon looks ok. Still going round in par.

You were lauding the UKMO the other week so what’s changed? 

I genuinely think some overread the models at times. I don't think the picture has changed too much over recent days when you focus on the ensembles rather than each and every run. That way you smooth over the variability somewhat and get a better look at the trends.

Another absolutely stunning ECM . Azores high pushing in nicely by 120h. 

It’s showing a settled outcome? 

the output looks like fairly benign English summer fare to me: some sunshine, some showers for the gardens. Pleasantly warm in the south. These last few days have been far better than your forecasts predicted - far from being a ‘write off’ June has been rather nice for many!

Another lovely ECM this morning looks like heatwave conditions from day 6 onwards for the SE and EA. UKMO similar at day 6.

GFS - slack LP this week, then Atlantic more active than predicted yesterday with 985 mb depression of NW Ireland Sun 21st which swirls around and has another go approaching Scotland on Fri 26th, the SE remaining warm under influence of continental HP until a general decrease in pressure Wed 1st.

GEFS - In the S, mostly dry, mean of temps around seasonal norm though op run definitely warm for Thu 25th and cool for Mon 29th. In Scotland a N England, looking a bit cooler after early warmth, and more in the way of rain generally, esp in the W.

ECM - Similar at first but that Atlantic LP fills by Fri 26th

BBC last night were however bullish about large area of HP across UK by the weekend

MO haven't seemed to have updated the charts properly. Seems to be 2 sets of models in B&W & colour, starting yesterday, so don't know which one's correct. Does anyone know a good alternative pressure charts site?

It's got to that stage of the season where I obsessively follow all model updates as they drip out, starting with ICON and ending with ECM and ECM ENS. (Like others do in the winter, when I tend to go into model watching hibernation).

So ICON is first out for 06z:

Similar to 00z, which was one of the more unsettled model runs this morning. Possibly a tad flatter and less cyclonic at 120hrs, but it's marginal.

GFS is next. Up to 120hrs [EDIT: was only up to 90 before] it's pretty similar to 00z (which was a middling run). Marginally better.

Always very noticeable when you do like for like comparisons like this how similar the evolution is between models and between runs up to around 5 days. We only really start diverging in any meaningful way after that. Our marginal position at the edge of the Atlantic storm track means small differences like those above can be the difference between a coolish damp day and a warm muggy one (this Sunday), even within a similar long term evolution.

The clue is in the name. "Azores high". And it's not the second word. 

Yes, that's a good summary Moomin, that's what I am seeing too. That Low in the North West is exerting its strength unfortunately. 

Yes, that annoying "Azores High" keeps hanging around the Azores because of the pesky "Icelandic Low" which persistently loiters around Iceland.

The weather at the moment does remind me of the summers of my youth. Often bright in the morning before the cloud and showers bubble up. I'm pleased with my summer forecast so far.