this low pressure is to the west of Ireland it's absolutely massive. Very unusual for late June. And it's setting up a classic NW - SE split

The GFS 6z is a real scorcher 90f probably 4 days in a row.

Blowtorch back in town? (Just for a change these days. ) 33C next week possible if this verifies.

Just one run though.

The GFS 6z is probably a best case scenario for heat lovers . And you can usually add 2/3c to GFS maxes so a very hot run.

Maxes starting with the 22nd

24c, 28c, 31c, 31c, 33c, 30c, 27c, 25c, 27c 

Not sure which correct thread to post this.

What the airmass over central & eastern England, today & yesterday? Is it returning polar maritime or is it too modified to be called that?

Thanks.

Very good question. The low pressure with the lower heights wrapped around it was if polar maritime origin. But looking at the archive 850 charts that depression has entrained a load of tropical continental air and it's that we see sat over the UK today.

See evolution below:

For it to be returning polar maritime we would need to be in the post cold-frontal airstream. You could make an argument that a (very Tm-modified) returning Pm airmass is blowing across west-Central France.

 Hot set! Some absolute furnace runs in there.

Indeed so, I'm reading headlines about a mini-heatwave next week although I'm not sure that's what you predicted a few days ago?

Yuck. Don't like the sound of 90f heat next week. Wouldn't surprise me though, it seems to be becoming the norm most Summers down here nowadays.

You’ll like the GFS 12Z then, which isn’t interested in the heat and rapidly shunts it away into Europe. One 30C day possibly. 

...but may not be so happy that 12z is a cool outlier later next week.

Very hot ECM tonight 15c/ 16c 850s in the south by day 6/7.

I'd bank that ECM run 3 hot days probably 90f in the SE/EA days 6/7/8 then a thundery breakdown quickly followed by another push from the Azores high . Very warm westerly at day 10 as well so much warm air around at the moment.

lets hope the ECM 12z verifies.

My first impression of the ECM is that it’s something of a step back from the ultra settled HP dominated runs we have seen in recent days. Still pretty warm though. 

That's interesting because my take of the ECM runs in recent days has been of some uncertainty about the positioning and intensity of the high pressure pushing in from the south-west. Today's 12z looks to offer rather more high pressure dominance than some others of late.

Absolutely. Impactful rainfall is still very much on the cards over the coming week to ten days.

Unsettled sums it up....with occasional transient high pressure for very brief drier spells.

Occasional transient high pressure looks to get less occasional and less transient according to the big three this morning. GFS weakest of the bunch, but even this run shows some high pressure dominated conditions at times. 

A good chance of some increasingly settled and very warm weather as we approach the medium term.

With the fantastic weather we’ve had throughout the spring, and the proper mixed mag of summer weather we’ve had in June so far, I’m loving this season at the moment! 

WOW! Insanely hot ECM this morning 13c to 19c  850s in the south days 5 to 10. Must be an outlier but fun to look at. Mid 30s anyone!

Bloody fantastic runs this morning. 

MetO a corker at T+144 too. 

Caution still required as we have some unsettled weather to get through before then, and the positioning of the Atlantic low and how quickly it shunts NW will have a bearing on what happens afterwards. Uncertain but promising.