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Gandalf The White
05 August 2020 06:11:22


Really? I don't see what you see tbh.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You don’t think this will deliver exceptional heat?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


moomin75
05 August 2020 06:24:16


 


You don’t think this will deliver exceptional heat?



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

In the extreme southeast yes....But i didn't actually have a link to the 850s. They are hot for sure, moreso south and east of London. But GFS, and ECM are much cooler.


 


Edit. The 0z ECM is certainly hotter.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Justin W
05 August 2020 06:46:49


 


Trust me, there are plenty of us for whom it's not a "jizzfest" - temperatures that high aren't fun with our buildings which really aren't designed for it! Thank goodness for a/c, is all I can say. (Similar temperatures abroad tend to be in areas used to the heat.)


Anyway, the Met Office's raw output continues to be warmer for longer than the other models are showing.


For example, MetO has the following highs for Heathrow from tomorrow:


28 / 37 / 33 / 30 / 31 / 33


The ECM, meanwhile, has the following instead: (https://weather.us/forecast/7284876-heathrow/ensemble/euro)


25 / 32 / 24 / 26 / 24 / 27


GFS is all over the place, of course, but the 0z shows:


27 / 32 / 27 / 23 / 23 / 26


ECM and GFS are broadly similar. The Met Office? Far, far warmer... It's as if it's running at a much higher resolution (like AROME etc), but AFAIK UKV doesn't go out that far!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 



The UKMO 0z is absolutely horrific on Friday and Saturday. Deeply unpleasant on Sunday and Monday. And then turning horrific again mid week.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
05 August 2020 06:54:25

Subtle changes in this EC run make for higher temps throughout with 6-7 days of 30s. Some very warm nights next week too.


Highest gridpoint temps starting from tomorrow in this run: 29, 32, 32, 31, 34, 34, 34, 27.

Matty H
05 August 2020 06:55:02


Really? I don't see what you see tbh.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I expect you’re “looking at a cached version” again....

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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Ally Pally Snowman
05 August 2020 07:02:39

ECM turns up the heat again looks like low to mid 30s back Monday to Wednesday. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
05 August 2020 07:04:03


Subtle changes in this EC run make for higher temps throughout with 6-7 days of 30s. Some very warm nights next week too.


Highest gridpoint temps starting from tomorrow in this run: 29, 32, 32, 31, 34, 34, 34, 27.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


Wow and you can normally add 2 or 3c.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2020 07:12:38

Besides the MetO above, the BBC last night was in general agreement, though with a welcome suggestion of thunderstorms midweek next week (Never mind the spectacle, we need the rain!)


GFS: The long-predicted SW-NE ridge of HP setting up tomorrow and persisting to Tue 11th when LP drifts up from the S and the ridge retreats to the Atlantic Thu 13th though still affecting the UK and re-establishing with a more W-E orientation Mon 17th. LP continues to flirt with southern UK from time to time; likewise E coasts occasionally affected by cool breeze of the N Sea when the HP is weaker.


GEFS: In the S, temps like yesterday with 5-7C above average to Thu 13th, then return to a little above norm to Fri 21st. Some much bigger spikes of rainfall Sun 9th - Mon 17th but no agreement between runs as to when. In Scotland consistently above average though not as extreme as S England, and a brief dip below normal Sun 9th. Again intermittent random spikes of rain, not so big as further S. N England in between.


ECM; keeps the original ridge of HP in place to Sat 15th but more aligned over the north of the UK, with more definite incursions of LP affecting the S from time to time.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Tim A
05 August 2020 07:13:32
Definitely the best spell of the summer coming up with some consistent high temperatures. Hopefully losing that nagging cool NW wind for a while too.
Whilst this time the extreme heat is a SE only thing, looks like some nice weather across many parts.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
moomin75
05 August 2020 07:20:11


 


I expect you’re “looking at a cached version” again....


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Nope, I was still looking at the slightly cooler 12z from yesterday. I forget the timings in BST! Not making a kneejerk reaction this time Matty, just not telling the time properly 🤣🤣

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
superteacher
05 August 2020 08:22:20
Seems that things have trended back to a more prolonged hotter spell, more so in the south.
David M Porter
05 August 2020 08:35:28


Looking beyond the 'heat record' jizzfest for SE'ers, there's an interesting pattern emerging of pressure being persistently high just to the north of the British Isles. Models are mostly not showing a particularly dry spell for any prolonged period, sadly, with latest GFS, for instance, wanting to position a horrible low over the southern half of the UK, spinning fronts northwards, but the general set up reminds me of the first half of the 2018 summer, where persistent easterlies gave the best weather in the west.


I'd love a bone dry August from here on out. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



After the deluge we had here yesterday and other recent wet weather, we could sure do with a fairly length dry spell here Saint. A repeat of the set-up that was commonplace during June and for much of July 2018 would be very welcome here!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2020 09:52:53
06zs so far looking similar to 00z. ICON a bit hotter, GFS up to Sat pretty identical if not a tad hotter on Sat.

The real fly in the ointment with all models at the moment seems to be cloud amounts (ie North Sea muck) and cool marine layer next week. Hence low maxes especially in the Midlands despite high 850s. Similar to the situation in late June last year. Low cloud is notoriously hard to model so temps could be all over the place particularly on Monday-Wednesday.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
xioni2
05 August 2020 10:00:26

The real fly in the ointment with all models at the moment seems to be cloud amounts (ie North Sea muck) and cool marine layer next week.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes, that was the main difference between the 12z and 00z runs of the ECM and it made for a difference of 6-7C on some days. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2020 10:33:11
Well up to 237 hrs GFS 06z is rather lovely. Hot for several days with no real cool down, then chance of a few thunderstorms from midweek, then a freshening but with high pressure. Hope it's indicative of GEFS too.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2020 11:24:05
...though the last week is filled with a lot of Easterly muck. The charts themselves look very comely, quite June 2018-esque, but the cloud levels and surface temps are poor, 18-20C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
severnside
05 August 2020 11:51:01

Seems really unsettled with heavy rain showers and Thunderstorms next week ?

Heavy Weather 2013
05 August 2020 11:59:56
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

GFS has almost dropped next weeks drop in 850s, but instead has really ramped the rainfall spikes. Will probably moderate those closer to the time as well.

Poor from the GFS.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
05 August 2020 12:01:35

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

GFS has almost dropped next weeks drop in 850s, but instead has really ramped the rainfall spikes. Will probably moderate those closer to the time as well.

Poor from the GFS.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


GFS always seems to massively overdo convective rainfall. Yes I am sure there will be some big downpours around but I don't think those rain spikes should be seen as representative over a wide area.


I'm liking the pattern for the week after next on that GFS run, as I am going to the Lake District. High pressure would be most welcome.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
05 August 2020 12:41:27

Well up to 237 hrs GFS 06z is rather lovely. Hot for several days with no real cool down, then chance of a few thunderstorms from midweek, then a freshening but with high pressure. Hope it's indicative of GEFS too.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


The options for CSEngland average out at the surface from Friday to Wednesday, in °C, as follows:


32   31   29   30   31   30


I accept that the mean is only a mathematical output from everything thrown in, but it reflects a signal and saves me having to list all the hot outcomes individually- there are plenty! For example, on Tuesday 11th, there are no less than 14 Ps suggesting 32°C+ here.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
bledur
05 August 2020 13:24:15

Just spoke to a large baling contractor and he gets a private forecast at this time of year and that was turning much wetter in the south next week. I think he said the north would be drier though.

Sevendust
05 August 2020 13:40:46


Just spoke to a large baling contractor and he gets a private forecast at this time of year and that was turning much wetter in the south next week. I think he said the north would be drier though.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Aah - That'll be Moomin 


Seriously though, there are some good thundery options for the south next week although that probably means huge rainfall variation

Saint Snow
05 August 2020 13:48:20


 


I'm liking the pattern for the week after next on that GFS run, as I am going to the Lake District. High pressure would be most welcome.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I sincerely hope you get great weather! 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Heavy Weather 2013
05 August 2020 13:49:06
iPhone App has really ramped you the temperatures for next week. Low 30s up until Tuesday.

If that’s punctuated by Thunderstorms late to mid afternoon that’s perfect in my book.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
bledur
05 August 2020 16:21:35


 


Aah - That'll be Moomin 


Seriously though, there are some good thundery options for the south next week although that probably means huge rainfall variation


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 Yes i see what he meant now with a thundery low over Biscay and plenty of heat, could be some big storms coming up from the south which has not really happened yet this year.

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