The answer to my question is no, the 12z GEM is the hottest operational run in the history of TWO.

Nowhere near, surely?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=2&mode=9&archive=0

Barely a 33 to be seen over the UK...

(The hottest run is of course the NOGAPS from a few years back which happily showed 42s and 43s over the UK... of course, being NOGAPS it was way off!)

EDIT: I misremembered. It was NAVGEM, the dodgy son of NOGAPS. Click for full-size.

GEM doesn’t do accurate max temperatures, it is usually at least 5C off with its numbers. I’m going on 850s.

Amusingly I have that same Navgem max temp map saved on my phone! But they don’t count.

Arpege 12z is probably the hottest run I've seen. It has 36,36,36,37 for the next 4 days. Monday now a day to watch too.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=99&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

We’re living in historic times Brian. But I bet your site clicks and bandwidth aren’t reflecting that yet are they? This heatwave seems to be sneaking up on Britain unawares. Even this forum remains October-quiet.

Definitely not a Scottish event, except perhaps from mid next week. But depends what you mean by SE UK I suppose. It’s not that localised. iPhone app temps:

Birmingham: 31, 27, 27, 27, 28

Bristol: 29, 28, 30, 27, 27

Manchester: 28, 26, 24, 26, 25

Nottingham: 31, 26, 26, 26, 29

Newport: 29, 27, 29, 25, 26

and I bet the North and West actually do better than that.

That’s a heatwave probably covering 50 million of the 65 million people in the UK. 

None of those forecasts are exceptional or close to record breaking though, unlike the SE. They look like bog-standard summer warm spells that you’d see virtually every year at some point. Perfectly pleasant but that’s about it.

For a comparison, Leeds exceeded 30C five times in August 1995. I don’t see that happening now.

Actually that's not the case. Summer is always the busiest season on TWO and this July was a record breaker. August is currently running about 12% ahead of last year after the first five days. It's worth remembering that traffic was wiped out at the start of the lockdown and then surged when people started to staycation.  

Edit: Also I think some papers may be leading with it tomorrow. 

Good to know. On this forum I often feel like some kind of freak being interested in hot summer weather more than winter snow. Hopefully that traffic will translate into visitors to the forum. 

They’ll be people travelling NW to escape the heat. They’ll be people travelling SE for the heat.

Not good in the current climate scuse the pun.

Current night time lows over the next 3 nights for me down on the south coast 22C, 19C, 20C.. will be warmer then Scotland ccapital by day. Crazy lol

I'm relieved to see the Met Office's output now showing a decidedly NE'ly flow here once today's out of the way. Accordingly the maxima, aside from today, are pegged in the mid 20s rather than the mid 30s. I'm a mile inland, though, so would suspect high 20s instead - still better than mid 30s though!

GFS meanwhile has 30C+ every day up to and including next Tuesday. I'm hoping it's a gridpoint issue there, as I can't see how temperatures could be that high with an onshore breeze from the North Sea.

Today is the exception and I do expect it to effortlessly get into the 30s.

One thing which is clearly going to happen though is the remarkably high overnight minimums. Even here the low is forecast as 21 tonight which is only a degree or so below the average high here this time of year!

(Side note: it looks like UKV models sea breezes. GFS? Nope, or at least not the gridpoint that xcweather picks for Leysdown).

EDIT: Just after posting that, xc updated with the 0z run. Gone are the strangely calm, 30C+ days on Monday and Tuesday, instead in comes a NE'ly - as per MetO - with much lower temperatures. Indeed, by Thursday the high is just 18C... now *that's* a dodgy forecast if ever I saw one!

Its crazy. First GFS gives up on the heat, then tracks back. Now the ensembles have a much earlier peak, but confidence then starts diverting after the next two days.

I wonder what sudden signal is picking up. Could it drop it again.

GFS has performed poorly. Or at least it seems that way. ECM and METO have remained solid throughout

10-day summary shows some amazingly high temperatures over Europe ifor the first 5 days and for all that it's hot here, we're only on the edge. The second period show the really hot weather being pushed back south but still pleasantly warm.

GFS - UK under SW-NE ridge of HP this coming week, becoming weaker but still poking in from SW Sat 15th and allowing a northerly drift down the N Sea; but hanging on until Wed 19th when deep LP appears off NW Scotland eventually translating into 995mb depression centred over UK Sun 23rd

GEFS - Hot in the S (up to +10C above norm at one point) until Sat 15th when back down to norm for the rest of the run. Rain now and then, most probably around Thu 13th. Only a little above normal in Scotland (best is a peak +6C above norm on Tue 11th) and back on norm from Thu 13th. A few big rainfall spikes but not consistent.

ECM - similar to GFS but likes to promote LP over France this week and begins the northerly drift a day or two earlier

FAX looks very different, pushing the HP off to Norway by Sun 9th and showing  LP centred in the Channel with E-lies for 2 or 3 days, and the Azores part of the HP has disappeared.

Back to back much cooler GFS runs. At 126 hours on the 6z, the 2m temps are some 10 to 12c LOWER than the same run yesterday. A very quick end to the heatwave looks odds-on.

Edit. An even more marked difference at 150hrs. The temps are now an incredible 18c LOWER than was projected for the same day on yesterday's runs.

Incredible backtrack from GFS.

Today's runs look more realistic to be honest. The flat plateau of 850s for a whole week was remarkable but today's slow decline seems more likely. Heatwave until Tuesday, then a shed load of cloud keeping temperatures down while the 850s decline more slowly.

The encouraging thing is this run is less wet next week, though very very cloudy from Wed onwards.

One gets used to it!  

(it probably won't happen like that, though - current GFS output has the high as generally very wet across the UK, almost certainly overly so. Even then, neighbouring valleys can have very different weather there)

I expect Met Office will follow suit soon. 

How will you all survive? Fur cloaks and central heating a-plenty 

I, too, have my suspicions as the latest Euro4 run are showing quite a lot of cloud over England tomorrow. Either-or it'll still be feeling sultry anyway.