It's the south that needs the rain.

Could it be that I am heading in the right direction going to Cumbria? 

Suspect much of that will come from storm activity in the next 48 hours or so. 

I've not gone away, busy morning...

GFS - Pressure  generally high with some thundery looking LP in the S until Wed19th , when deep LP appears on the Atlantic and drifts across Scotland to Norway by Tue 25th; brief ridges of HP and shallow LPs alternate for the rest of that week.

GEFS - in the S temps down to normal by Mon 17th, slightly below from Sun 22nd, occasional rain but less than yesterday; Scotland similar but dry until 19th.

ECM - agrees with GFS

Quite consistent signal now for relatively warm wet weather until around the 20th, with a mini peak at that point, and then a cooler, below average but not quite so wet westerly regime. ECM dropped its Northerly plunge a couple of days ago and has been fairly consistent since.

Ensembles suggesting pressure potentially starts to rise in the last week of August. Would be nice to start September with some anticyclonic weather.

I never knew London was in Wales.
I stand corrected. 

 That is not what i want to hear.

Warm and wet seems as we head into last 3rd of the month seems to be in forecast favour at the moment:

GFS - A odd slack combination of HP with pataches of LP until Tue 18th when LP creep in from the w and intensifies Fri 21st 975mb Ireland moving off quickly to NE; brief ridge of HP before another depression 985 mb Scotland Thu 27th (looks quite vicious)slowly moving E

GEFS - In the S warmth just about hangs on to Fri 21st after which mean goes below seasonal norm, reasonable amounts of rain from tiime to time. Similar temps in N but dry until Mon 17th and some outlier runs show occasional big totals

ECM - similar to GFS though LP of the 21st is at its deepest while still out in the Atlantic

There seems to be a growing consensus in the models for quite a notable change back to atlantic-based weather in the latter half of next week, with a much cooler NW airstream following the atlantic LP. Will be a big shock to many should it play out like this, especially after the events of the last fortnight or so.

Time to put away the hosepipe for the season. The days are now rapidly shortening and despite the recent extreme heat it still looks quite green here. The rain now falling will be enough for the garden and a watering can suffices for the tubs. 

Not here, Brian.  As reported in the August Precip. thread total so far here this month is 3.0mm.  The grass in some local areas (Tunbridge Wells common and parts of Sevenoaks, which are on sand) have a very 1976 look about them (which I remember from the time) being pale yellow with dusty soil.  When I drove along the A21 Tonbridge bypass this week I noticed that the leaves on the trees alongside it were turning yellow in places, and looking very shabby, clearly suffering from the combination of lack of water and high temperatures. 

So the hosepipe is still much in use here, and I'm scanning the model output looking for rain...

Model outputs look horrific, still hoping that nasty low goes further North.

Yess, I've seen some scraggy-looking trees too, including the hazel in the garden. If it does get windy as some models are showing next week there could be quite a bit of premature leaf-fall!

Rainfall is 4.6mm here this month, all of it yesterday. It just ran straight off the ground into the streams and drains, of course...

Thanks Brian - that should guarantee us a hot, dry September! 😆

 Very possible but even if it happens the hosepipe won't be needed in my garden. 

Strength of the zonal winds @ 10hpa 60'N look interesting from November on wards: But we have been here before I guess and this could be picking up on the easterly QBO.

And only 3 months away too. 

That reminds me,  I must get my Christmas shopping finished soon. Especially if there is snow on the way ....