Jetstream: current loop covering UK breaks up, to be followed by another narrower loop moving across on Sat/Sun 24th/25th. Then a blast from the W, broad and strong, winding itself into another loop around the UK Fri 30th spinning off into cut-off low S Europe while jet resumes N of UK. Hint of another loop for UK developing Thu 5th.

GFS: current LP moving away NE-wards to be replaced by trough extending rom centre over Iceland Mon 25th at which date the ex hurricane from current TS Epsilon is ca 970mb off newfoundland. It combines with the Atlantic to give 965mb E Scotland Wed 28th and then another centre 965mb Irish sea Fri 30th (see Phil's post above). All moves away before ridge of HP aligned SW-NE Tue 3rd but probably not lasting as another compact 965mb Rockall Thu 5th. Stormier than forecast yesterday, expect damaging gales last week of October.

GEFS: temps up and down a bit at first but most runs a degree or two below average through to Thu 5th (a lot of variability in the N towards the end of this), rain on and off for most of this period with focus around Sat 31st.

ECM - like GFS to Mon 25th but then does not develop local storms over UK as per GFS, just keeps a deep centre near Iceland with W=ly gales persisting throughout week of Mon 27th. Ex-hurricane much deeper than yesterday, and now forecast to move into N Atlantic as GFS originally predicted

Well, so much for a "front loaded winter associated with early northern blocking".    My thinking is once the Atlantic goes fill tilt, it'll stay that way for weeks on end and needs a major pattern change to shift it. 

great

Wonder when SSW will crop up ???

Yup quite a change in the last week or so.

Will Hurricane Epsilon throw the models?

Well it's all Greek to me. lol.

Computer models never handle hurricanes well - I guess that not only do hurricanes 'create their own weather' but the limited number of occasions means that programmers don't get many chances to refine the models. Maybe after a few more seasons like 2020, though ... anyway FWIW

16-dayer: Getting back to norm temps with 'blue patch' over Scandi retreating E-wards in week 2; plenty of rain for W Europe, notably UK (and within that, the W coast), and France.

GFS: Current LP (ex-Barbara) moves off to NE then broad trough extending from Iceland Mon 25th and ex-hurricane Epsilon prominent in mid Atlantic. That combines with Icelandic low ('only' 940mb,  910mbhad been forecast!) and drops in on N Scotland 960mb Thu 29th; a secondary centre then to NE Scotland 975mb Sat 31st. Next LP 955mb Faeroes Mon 2nd, moving slowly E-wards that week. No sign of ridge of HP noted yesterday. The  wind fields from these depressions extend well south so W-ly/NW-ly gales not only for Scotland but also at time down to S England.

GEFS: Good agreement between runs to Fri 29th, i.e. cool with occasional bursts of warmth esp in SW; after that a lot more uncertainty but mean close to seasonal norm. Rain from time to time,  Mon 25th & Thu/Fri 29th/30th favoured

ECM: the trough forecast by GFS fo Mon 25th hangs around and is augmented by ex-hurricane to 945mb Wed 28th off W Scotland then moves off NE-wards and - quite different - HP centred 1035mb Brittany covering all UK bar N Scotland Sat 31st.

Looks a very mild end to the ECM. I wonder what sort of surface temps it would produce? Probably not matching 2014?

Epsilon could help us in the south and drag some tropical air up and perhaps encourages the AH to ridge towards us

Postage stamps now show all 30 perturbations plus the control and mean.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=012&chartname=ps_850temp&chartregion=na&p=21&charttag=PS%20850hPa%20temp

Can I print these out and stick them to my Xmas cards?

If I find one that is slightly different, will it be worth a fortune?

The odd run out? 

Spot one that keeps Richard happy and that would be worth a fortune. 

12z ECM and GFS outputs showing very different scenarios at the 240 hrs range. Yes, it's a long way, etc, etc, but I would bank the ECM all day long.

Nasty looking beast .......but will the high to the east be the ultimate winner in the end....certainly worth keeping an eye on...

GFS: deep LP 960 mb Rockall Sun 25th affecting all UK while Epsilon moves NE to W of Iceland arriving Fri 30th - estimates of central pressure vary but likely below 940mb at some stage. This spawns a secondary brushing Hebrides 965mb Sun 1st ushering in a spell of strong/gale SW-ly for the following week, with more LPs passing between Scotland and Iceland.

GEFS: Cool at first with occasional bursts of warmth, mean back to seasonal norm by Sun 1st but with much variation setting in after that date, Rain from time to time, most likely around Tue 26th and Fri 29th, perhaps drier after Tue 3rd.

ECM: generally agrees with GFS though holds LP further north in 1st week of November with HP over France closer than GFS (though not as far into UK as yesterday)

Even the GFS looks pretty run of the mill to me. ECM going for the hairdryer. Quite frankly it would be difficult to conjure up a more boring pattern.

Yes the ECM looks very lively for next week, with three deep areas of low pressure passing by. The worst looks around Tuesday night, as the remnants of Hurricane Epsilon pass by to the north west of Scotland. That could be particularly nasty, especially if it trends southwards:

I'd rather it did track further southwards, keep the strongest winds away from here! That image looks like directing the tightest squeeze and biggest winds over the North Wales-N England-Scotland portion of the country.