Yes. It was me, referencing the descent of the easterly phase of the QBO. Models famously can't model turbulence, and we're currently seeing the ultimate example of turbulence - like suddenly reversing the direction in which you're stirring your tea. It always results in a mess.

Whats your problem. This is model discussion. Leave it out with the attitude. The debate and discussion on here have been great this weekend. Reasoned and informed.

This thread discusses what the models show. People were clear that the more extreme scenarios were unlikely to come off. 

What do you want to see discussed in the model output thread?

Believing it doesn't come into it. It's about discussing what they show. Several models show the chance of wintry precipitation in southern England over the next day or two, so it's worthy of discussion. I don't think anyone expects any accumulations, except perhaps over the highest ground for a time.

I haven't seen any post that say's  " this is going to happen " this thread is to discuss every possibility / scenario that the models are showing , I am sure most if not all know that reliable timeframe with the models is 96 -120 hours , and sometimes that's pushing it.

This time last year there was very little to discuss apart from wind and rain , at least this year there is room for optimism 

Looks like a right conveyor belt of lows heading into Iberia next week, with a low moving through more or less ever day, on the 06Z GFS run. If it comes to fruition, I can see Portugal, Spain and parts of Southern France having a very wet week next week. We might even see some flooding problems for those areas...

It would be a taste for them of some of our recent winters.

The MetO Thursday afternoon forecast 03/12/20 on their website shows snow over some higher parts of central southern England at 8.00am Friday, and the presenter discusses a slight possibility of snow over northern Norfolk at around the same time.

See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#  especially from 2:00 - 2:30 on the video.

So the discussion on this thread, far from being 'silly talk', could perhaps have been entirely rational and prescient.

 thank you Moderators...Doing a great job along with Brian deleting the last thread that had been spoilt at the end... personally I am finding the discussion on here very interesting, realistic but at the same time, as there is colder weather (sure no where near as cold as some of us would like) a very good chat  and possibilities....

need the cold to flow round the NE of the Russian high to break the link to the milder air. Signs of it on this run

Afternoon All-

I have been reviewing the GFS closely over the past 24 hours run by run.

When the crazy ECM charts came out for snow the GFS & ICON & Aperge all had zilch for the SE > not even any rain.

Over the past 4 runs the GFS has steadily increased the moisture content of the system over the channel, so now most ENS have about 15-20mm of rain in Kent / London suffolk etc & with each run the system nudges west.

Whats also interesting is the fact that the initialisation of the GFS & the above models was woeful V the actual radar. The area of vorticity depicted in the models is on the radar quite a way NW ( say 50-75 Miles ) & also better developed.

The closest High resolution model for 12z was the HIRLAM ( now Harmonie )

Whats still missing though from the GFS ( apart from 1 amazing one ) is the wintryness element, however they are changing as the panels for GFS now bring some snow into Suffolk & Kent.

So in my mind the ECM & its forecasts have been much better >>> Barring that hurdle ...
Can we make that leap - I still think as highlighting from the start +150M could see a covering & if some of the echoes do appear that are now appearing on the GEFS panels there could be a fast 5-10cm.

Brian if you have the snowdepth chart for GEFS PTB 25 for T21 or 24 I would be interested to see it...

Thanks
S

I think GFS has gone into "I haven't got a clue" mode. The trough over us now, is just over us or slightly to the west in 384 hrs time, nothing moves.

It's not great but it doesn't have the look of a long-lived return to zonality to me - it's still quite an amplified pattern.

The setup for tonight and tomorrow morning in the SE is still rather finely balanced: most models have converged towards less precip (mainly to the SE and then NE of London and less engagement of the cold air with very little snow as a result, but they could still underestimate the intensity and westward extent of the precip.  There still is a reasonable chance of 5-15cm over the North Downs above 150m or so, but it's an uncertain forecast.

The EC has gone from ~30cm to almost zero now. 

Yes could also be the fact that we have some warming of the Stratosphere at 10hpa around the ARCTIC regions.

In S.Essex I had not expected 15mm of heavy rain from the forecasts and there is still more to come. Of course there was no wintriness as expected, with temperatures of 7C but the amount of rain we will get by the morning comes as a surprise. I would like to see the same pattern later in the winter with a colder Continent and N.Sea to lower surface temperatures.

...... I think the charts must have meant to say rain 

It has about an inch of snow for here by tomorrow morning. I think that is about right, allowing for the inch of snow overestimation.

In Harmonie we trust. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie.php?ech=19&mode=1&map=523