theweatheroutlook

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warrenb
04 December 2020 14:18:52


Certainly given the seasonal outlooks by the Pros you would expect to see a strongly zonal and mild set-up by late December and early Janaury, something that has become almost de rigueur in the modern era.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


 


Tonbridge 45m 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2020 14:25:59


 


Well, I do recall a certain contributor from Shropshire saying the headlines this week would all be about flooding. I did suggest there might be the odd headline about a surprise snowfall.


Still a covering on the grass here but the last of the slush and snow has just cleared from the surrounding lanes.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


57 flood alerts and 5 flood warnings, a couple of the latter in your part of the world, Gandalf.


Not quite headlines outside of the local press, but something to show


https://www.floodalerts.com/ 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DPower
04 December 2020 14:37:55

Certainly get the impression the last few runs that the models want to extend the idea of heights to the north with lows, troughs disrupting on a northwest, southeast axis. If correct and the pattern can shave another 2 or 3 degrees off the 850's then things may get more interesting.  Arctic high may well start to come into play in the extended range. Wishful thinking perhaps but you never know.


Admittedly a few lucky places had a temporary Christmas postcard scene. Although a short lived slushy wet covering is not on my Christmas wish list.

Saint Snow
04 December 2020 15:09:50


Certainly given the seasonal outlooks by the Pros you would expect to see a strongly zonal and mild set-up by late December and early Janaury, something that has become almost de rigueur in the modern era.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Brian, as it's coming toward Xmas, the time of giving gifts, etc, and you know how you *-out *****Corbyn's first name...


...can you find a way to *-out the phrases 'modern era' and 'modern winter'?


Pleeeease!!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
04 December 2020 15:10:51


Admittedly a few lucky places had a temporary Christmas postcard scene. 


Originally Posted by: DPower 


 


If only some of the model output would have shown it, eh?



 



 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2020 15:28:13


 


 


If only some of the model output would have shown it, eh?



 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



 


I must say that the 06z GEFS for London does show a remarkable (and unusually consistent) agreement for steady and below-average temperatures for the next 7 days. 

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
warrenb
04 December 2020 15:33:08

And off we go for the 12z runs.


By the way, be honest, who still has a sneaky look at the pressure over Svalbard every now and again 

Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
04 December 2020 16:17:01
12Z GFS almost delivering a Channel low type scenario at 144 hours+ but the cold air just isn't entrenched enough to make it worthwhile.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Shropshire
04 December 2020 16:18:55

A big swing to the ECM from the UKMO tonight.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
fairweather
04 December 2020 16:26:57


 


Well, I do recall a certain contributor from Shropshire saying the headlines this week would all be about flooding. I did suggest there might be the odd headline about a surprise snowfall.


Still a covering on the grass here but the last of the slush and snow has just cleared from the surrounding lanes.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, a bit of everything - flooding around here after 28mm of rain.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
04 December 2020 16:28:54


 


 


Brian, as it's coming toward Xmas, the time of giving gifts, etc, and you know how you *-out *****Corbyn's first name...


...can you find a way to *-out the phrases 'modern era' and 'modern winter'?


Pleeeease!!


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


What is the preferred replacement term for those as winters are clearly so much milder in the last 30 years?

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Shropshire
04 December 2020 16:37:44


 


 


Brian, as it's coming toward Xmas, the time of giving gifts, etc, and you know how you *-out *****Corbyn's first name...


...can you find a way to *-out the phrases 'modern era' and 'modern winter'?


Pleeeease!!


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Obviously the other side have done that for a number of years, I think it would be rather churlish and effectively in denial of the climate.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
David M Porter
04 December 2020 16:47:49


A big swing to the ECM from the UKMO tonight.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Really? The 12z UKMO chart doesn't look vastly different to me anyway from the 00z:


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=00&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
fairweather
04 December 2020 16:49:38

The rainfall radar is showing an intense swirl of activity around South East Yorks. Almost like a mini low. Is that rain or snow I wonder?

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
04 December 2020 16:50:03

GEM looking exceptionally blocked day 10 again. Would be a great place to be just before Christmas.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
pdiddy
04 December 2020 16:58:05


GEM looking exceptionally blocked day 10 again. Would be a great place to be just before Christmas.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Oh drat!  The GEM had become the weapon of choice to demonstrate how the Atlantic was going to win, bigly, by a lot.  Gem is rigged surely?


 


Meanwhile, we could have a repeat of today's weather next week!


Ally Pally Snowman
04 December 2020 17:00:23


 


Oh drat!  The GEM had become the weapon of choice to demonstrate how the Atlantic was going to win, bigly, by a lot.  Gem is rigged surely?


 


Meanwhile, we could have a repeat of today's weather next week!



Originally Posted by: pdiddy 


 


Stunning chart very marginal again but could be a big snow maker.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
04 December 2020 17:03:07


The rainfall radar is showing an intense swirl of activity around South East Yorks. Almost like a mini low. Is that rain or snow I wonder?


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Some sleet over the Lincoln Grimsby areas 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
04 December 2020 17:04:54

The end of the GFS now looking crazy blocked. The PV can't get going this year.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
04 December 2020 17:05:28


 


 


Stunning chart very marginal again but could be a big snow maker.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Really wouldn't take much would it ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
04 December 2020 17:06:08
I was reading earlier that apparently the latter stages of the GFS charts are the ones to look at (the GEM is so 12z yesterday)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_348_1.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
04 December 2020 17:07:01


The end of the GFS now looking crazy blocked. The PV can't get going this year.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Shhhhhhhhhhh


That's our best chance of something ( PV ) being fragmented and away from home 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
04 December 2020 17:07:20

The end of the GFS now looking crazy blocked. The PV can't get going this year.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
04 December 2020 17:14:40

Take on the MO.


Still I reckon the best set of charts since 2010 for Early december.


Nothing really much suggests a return to zonality, even if an LP introduces milder air mid week the pattern is very much still blocked and most scenarios return us to a (still frankly underwhelming) easterly regime.


4 days into winter and we have already had a snow event. That's a once in a decade type event. We shouldn't forget that.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Devonian
04 December 2020 17:18:37


Take on the MO.


Still I reckon the best set of charts since 2010 for Early december.


Nothing really much suggests a return to zonality, even if an LP introduces milder air mid week the pattern is very much still blocked and most scenarios return us to a (still frankly underwhelming) easterly regime.


4 days into winter and we have already had a snow event. That's a once in a decade type event. We shouldn't forget that.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We used to get a snowfall in every November, not anymore. By contrast, we're yet to see the thermometer below 1C this Autumn/Winter let alone see a snowfall...

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