When we are looking at charts showing positive anomalies from an easterly going into Southern Finland it's going to be a struggle....

indeed,,,you don’t need massive negative 850 as proven by some parts in the s/e to day 

Don’t listen to the bull

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/snow-and-sleet-hits-suffolk-and-north-essex-1-6952179

Shame you missed all the good stuff  The 2009-2013 was the best period for sure during the last 40 years and it stands out by the lack of anything else, but sadly it was relatively tame in my part of the Country and beaten by the Beast from the East. Having 20 years on you and 30 if you forget your early years the massive difference is the lack of blizzards and deep drifts, especially in the south and the total vanishing of the East Anglian heavy snow showers which were a part of normal life and rarely counted in our mind as anything special due to them occurring most winters. 

...well it might end up that way. I didn't see any today and not seen any snow for a couple of years.

Doubt you'd remember anything before 1984 as you would only have been 4  

I've lived in the same area of London and Essex for 70 years and it didn't snow every November but between 1955 and 1995 it snowed in quite a few, but mostly like the snow some people got today. I remember in the 80's when my children were young freezing in sub-zero temperatures early evening one Bonfire Night and my car freezing up early one October evening. I'm not quite sure why people want to challenge the fact when us old fogies tell our tales of frequent and heavy snow falls. You'd think they would enjoy it and keep hoping for the same as i do - I'm running out of bloody time!

That pretty much sums it up. A quick look at the GFS ensembles will show below average for a week and around aveage for a week after that. Nothing spectacular but certainly better than this time last year. 

That is the clear tendency of the last few years, I think before that there were colder blocks but we just couldn't get them to position right a lot of the time - as it did with the Beast from the East which was the nearest thing to what I grew up with in East Anglia in the 50's-70's.

I think the biggest change probably has been to East Anglia. I remember my school geography book saying Norwich was the snowiest town in lowland England.

Decembers of: 2020, 2018, 2017, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010 all have had notable UK snow events, of which several far more significant then today's. Snow events in November are not either decade either.

Certainly a move away from the barreling through of the Atlantic by the UKMO and ECM, but it remains a very wet picture with temps around average.

Latest GEFS. Snow row and downward dip in temperatures at the end may just be noise but worth watching.

Chichester MetO forecast this morning for your area and mine has daytime temps at 7 or 8 C only Sunday at 5C much below. Mild? I think I'll keep the C/H on

Brian is an inveterate mild ramper.

(Joke! Joke!) 

Models with something for everyone currently. 

FWIW snow cover still very patchy in W Europe and not much sea ice to the north so serious cold air may be a while arriving - which doesn't exclude local surface cooling Yesterday's snowfall in UK visible a a couple of tiny blobs  https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 backs this up though week 2 has some very cold air appearing - still a long way to the NE of us, but it's there. From the same site, pptn over W European coastal countries (notably week 2) and the Med (notably week 1)

GFS -A bit messy, but in summary, slack LPs for a week or so before the Atlantic wakes up again. Current LP filling and out of the way to SE by Wed 9th, Ural block still present. Atlantic trough from Rockall to Channel 985 mb Sat 12th but no real oomph in it;  a couple more LPs thrown our way by the Atlantic Wed 16th 985 mb Scotland and Thu 17th 965 mb NI both filling as they cross the UK. Something much deeper Sun 20th 950mb Faeroes coming up against the block which has by then moved N to Spitzbergen. Yesterday's SW-lies still there but being fed by north not south Atlantic so much cooler. 

GEFS - cool with good agreement to Fri 11th, then anything could happen with mean close to norm, perhaps a mild blip at first but you can find runs 7 or 8 C either above or below norm after that. Plenty of rain esp in S week beginning Wed 9th ( a minor but direct contradiction for this Sunday with rain shown on GEFS but dry in Meto). Snow row figures negligible 

ECM - much the same as GFS with minor differences in timing to end of run Tue 15th

Yes I looked at the op run and it’s pretty grim with huge Atlantic lows the order of the day but the GEFS have quite a few colder runs. Eg p20 and p21 both have a big high to our northwest. Having said that it would be nice to see at least a couple of runs showing some -10s reaching our shores!

Very true.

I know November 1985 was cold and there were quite probably some snowfalls in some areas that month. I can remember the Novembers of from 1986 to 1989 quite well though (was aged 6-9 during that time), and of those, the only one which saw any snow in my locality was November '88, on the night of Saturday 19th as far as I recall.

As far as I have read, many Decembers in the 80s weren't especially great for cold and snow either apart from the famous exception of 1981.

We're going to have to be patient for significant cold to arrive to the UK.  But if the blocking continues and the PV fails to organise itself properly cold will arrive eventually.  I think Christmas week is probably the earliest we can hope for. 

GFS 06z utter pants, very progressive

Agreed, APS.

From what I can see of the model output, while are not looking at any likelihood of a repeat of December 2010 or the second half of December 2009 at the moment, we are not looking either at a repeat of December 2019 either. Still very much all to play for, IMHO.

That is GFS for you though in my experience, Kieren. It can give you a stella run in one run and then utter dross in the next.

I have sometimes wondered whether it would be better if there were only two GFS op runs per day instead of four, say at 00z and 12z as happens with ECM and UKMO.

I guess the Met Office would have to change their forecast then!?