Looks like a shift downward again in temps looking at the 0z gefs. Interesting time I dont post here often but have been watching as the current situation is rather different to last year.

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LOL. Which model is showing that?

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Interesting how the current cold plunge into Europe is totally driven away from the IB high and associated fronts that will sweep through Europe and into Southern Russia over the next 10 days.

The CET in Paris and Berlin will surely be way above average this year.

It very much looks like the hope of any significant cold weather in February is a plunge from the North rather than advecting cold for the east or North East promoted by a Scandi.

After this weekend's little excitement if it develops, we can relax for a week or so and hope for the ENS to strengthen the prospects of a cold outlook for mid Feb through to March

Other than that it's game over for this year - except for Aberdeen of course

Thanks for those links. Looks about as average as you can get for London, but looking at the maps the cold anomaly grows the further you go north, which is confirmed by selecting, say, Inverness for the ensemble chart. Quite a strong signal for colder than average February in Scotland.

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I believe they have resurrected the old MRF (Martian Raiding Forecast) model. 

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Much speculation as usual but the blocks in the next 10 days have not changed. The persistence of low pressure near Norway has to shift before we can consider an easterly. The ECM op is a good example of the problem. Meanwhile we have to keep looking north for cold spells.

nO Signal from the CFS means cold - but given the whole of Europe was bathed in above average temperatures for February (red) last month and many p-arts of Europe esp Spain saw record cold and snow as has Italy, Greece and Turkey I would take this as pinch of salt. Nice to see Scandinavia colder which would help colder air from any potential easterly.#

ECM:

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Just need that high pressure slightly further to the north and west over Scandinavia and jackpot!

Yes and the GFS 6z op is a horror show if you're looking for a cold incursion from the East/NE in early February. LP systems from the Atlantic continue to push NE, generating shortwave after shortwave right up towards Svalbard. This blasts away cold air from Scandi meaning when pressure does rise to our NE at the end of the run, the 850s to our East are relatively high.

Thankfully only one run. Eyes down for the 12zs. 

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06z ensemble mean (London) minor downgrade with lowest 850 hPA now -6.5C (was -6.7C) so no ereal change but weekend snow in the S.E looking marginal. It looks the usual where if it pushes far enough North the top edge will see snow and the more Southern regions rain and sleet. Nothing exciting in first week of February other than the cooling trend is still there.

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There’s a dedicated thread for this weekend and I think you’ll find that the statement ‘southern regions rain and sleet’ is too definitive on this one. I’m fairly confident the south will see snow at least falling on Sunday.

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Agreed

Meant S.E, as in earlier part of comment. i.e Essex, London, Kent, Surrey. Originally front was progged to move into that segment according to fax but more now towards Central South, especially at first. Wouldn't be surprised if it is the usual M4 boundary line. Still nice to see some interest in this at last as I have been mentioning it for a week whilst most seem concerned with February!

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Yet another modest wind reversal at 10hPa being predicted by the latest ECM ensembles, for the end of the month.

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Seen many a runner low just miss the south coast over the years into N France ,dont see why this one will be any different 

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Apart from the fact most output suggests it won’t.

I’m an advocate for gut instinct and experience, but you have to first concede to available data.

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The ICON12z is very different.

Quite dramatically so for only 100 hours.

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Much more amplified run from the Icon this afternoon. Very cold air knocking on the door at t180. With the whole country under n/e air flow I would imagine not long after.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/6504/iconnh-0-180_ueu0.png

This is as far north as the cold air gets on the ICON12z

And we know these sliders tend to be further north than they actually end up.

I should be clear this is attempt #2. Attempt #1 on Tuesday gets nowhere.

 

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Much more of a traditional snow slider event on Tuesday. These things are pretty common and happen pretty much every year, sometimes more than once and the areas hit hardest always tend to be the same. North Midlands, South Yorkshire always very favoured. Birmingham tends to be where the rain/snow boundary is (note the models tend to push these too far north) and the northern extent of the snow is usually around leeds. Places like Sheffield and nottingham get plastered.

 

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Fingers crossed then 

Think you are in a better position than I am. For me its perfect right now, but inevitably it will trend south. I'd expect to be right on the northern edge with drizzle/snizzle/nothing

 

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I feel a change is afoot.

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ARPEGE12z also an upgrade on the 6z.

Energy pushing away to the SE.

 

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NAVGEM6z called it

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