Yes its looking like we might even see 15c or 16c to see out January here.

 

---

That also might help to reset this most boring pattern we been stuck for a month now and if this can go up to 15-16C follow by -2 to -5C day time in early Feb if easterly arise then bring it on, don't want to see 1-5C day and night temps again.  Need something to break this pattern and perhaps this extreme mild is the way forward to do it.  

 

I think February has a better than average chance of an easterly this year.  But its unlikely in the next 2 weeks. 

 

---

Possibly the coldest spell of the winter for the S.E coming up at the weekend with the BBC now talking about the possibility of snow Sunday. We'll see but its been on the cards for a while.

---

Id take a 02 February 2009 again. That remains one of the best snowfalls I’ve seen on London for sometime.

---

Yes an amazing streamer set up buried all of London.  And was the start of 4 very snowy years for the capital. 

 

---

It was rather frustrating for me. We were just on the fringe of the area of heavy snow and only had about 5 cm, while less than 10 miles to the north they had four or five times as much. Of course nowadays I'd be delighted with 5 cm.

---

The development data server isn't running at the moment. 

---

GFS pub run building the high with a weak easterly

It's fairly week but drawing in some pretty cold air.  

Really wish the PARA was up and running as prior to it's 'crash' it was showing an easterly and now the GFS Op run shows an easterly so would like to know what the para is showing!

---

Indeed, the end of that period prompted me to buy new plastic sledges for my young grandsons.  Not used since and one is now an adult !

---

Just look at his face on control @ 306z - trying to smile:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU18_306_1.png

318z smile becomes too cheesy!

---

Check out the 850 hpa temp contrast @ mid day 😨

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=2&month=2&year=2009&hour=12&type=era&map=0&type=era&region=uk&mode=0 

ENS showing signs of blocking in the right places in about 10 days - Feb could definitely turn out cold

Yes - and signs now strengthening on this - with GFS showing most purterbations ending with a northerly flow and most with uppers cold enough for propper wintry conditions. The para is the outlier - as usual recently with a full blown BFTE set up - but look at the average 850hpa and the -5 line is continuing the trend for this to be further south than previous runs. 

---

ECM hinting at blocking to the NE becoming influential towards the end of the run, hopefully no false dawns this time

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=0&chartname=850temp&chartregion=nh&charttag=850%20hPa%20C 

CFSv2 going for a cold February this morning with strong northern blocking, the -10 knocking on the door of the east coast! Hoping for a February 2009, which was great for snow in Northamptonshire!

---

 

Good to see a new early morning poster on here.

But I'm afraid February is in the hopecasting range: http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 is showing plenty of action on the rainfall front for the next two weeks and very little from the movement of cold air on the associated temp chart.

GFS - remains of Storm Christoph hanging around over Norway until Tue 26th, after which a full 12 days with series of LPs running from the Atlantic across or close to N Scotland, closer to UK than previously forecast, none very deep or cold. Copious snow for Scottish mountains?

GEFS - much as yesterday , cool to Tue 26th, mild to Sun 31st, considerable spread after that but generally on the cool side, even drifting towards cold from Thu 4th. Rain on most days in the S, Scotland gets a dry period to Tue 26th before joining in.

ECM - less of a train of LPs after Tue 26th but does produce one much deeper 970mb Sun 31st NI

---

I guess the Martians ‘could definitely’ land on Hampstead Heath in February too.

Growing confidence in the MO this morning for a temporary warm up from the middle of next week thanks to the Iberian high exerting it's influence.

From the start of February the GFS 850s begin to fall away again. A quick look through the Edinburgh ENS suggests the downward trend is due to cold zonality rather than sustainable height rises to our NE. All FI at that stage though, so anything is possible as we head into February.

Unfortunate that the GFS para is still down, as it was showing some consistency in it's FI runs earlier in the week.

---

 

That's actually a remarkable cold signal for a whole month.  Shame it's the CFS which is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. 

---

 

haha definitely was not the right word there at all! Potentially’ would have made more sense

Growing signs of easterly influence in the ECM ensembles this morning and a dropping temp past day 8. winds shifting more easterly.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021012200,0,2021012200&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=ManChester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=undefined

Martin

---

I mentioned on Twitter recently that IMO GEFS35 at that range is a far better option than CFSv2 regardless of the website / app you are viewing the charts on. On TWO GEFS 35 can be selected here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx

However, that's just my view and I don't have stats to back it up.

---