I'd normally agree but it matches today's Met office update pretty well. 

Would be interesting to see the trend from 2015 to 2020, as we have had a lot of northern blocking lately (but mostly at the wrong time of year!)

Is that something you could pull from GFS data in the same way you did the 850mb temperature analysis?

Edit - just realised that one is only December to Feb. Is the trend reversed in summer, I wonder?

The positive being the shift to N/NE heights starts at 180 not 240.

If this goes the easterly route to cold it’ll be a huge win for GEM. Expectations capped as per usual though.

Yes, GEM has gone up in my estimation of late, and if pulls this one off then Long Live The King! (as it were).

What is meant by the term JAM?

I'm pleased to see a couple of things. For the first time in a while both the OP and the Para are trying to sing from the same hymn sheet. They've also just boarded the same train as the GEM. Besides the finer details, I'm now looking for more from the others and that dreaded word 'consistency' before it can be taken seriously.

Something Sweet. A good run offering something sweet but seems to be always out of reach.

Ah thought you had misspelt JMA 

The GFS 12z shows what can happen with subtle differences at the 120t range. The 00z was way more progressive, the 6z slowed down the progression and the 12z has halted it. As a result, heights build to our NE and bingo. 

It all hinges on the ridge from the GH which most models are forecasting to build southwards this weekend. Will it get blasted away as in ECM 00z & GFS 00z or will it be strong enough to make the incoming Atlantic low slide as GEM has been supportive of in the last few runs?  

Very much in the balance I think. More runs needed as ever and the ECM 12z will be interesting.

Here you go https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/JMAOPEU12_24_1.png  (for tomorrow of course )

I assume that given the weather that would be long-sleeved rather than short?

Jam tomorrow or jam to-morrow (older spelling) is an expression for a never-fulfilled promise. Some pleasant event in the future, which is never likely to materialize. It originates from Lewis Carroll's 1871 book Through the Looking Glass and What Alice Found There.

The phrase meant more in the days when school children learned Latin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jam_tomorrow

As always, just for fun...   P29 shows what happens if pressure builds and holds to the NE: the battleground becomes the middle of the UK with rain/snow in the south but a lot of snow across the Midlands/North and into East Anglia.

This is one of those periods when you really don't envy the Met Office people who are trying to decipher the signals.

Sample for Monday:

Seem GEM is leading the way and others follow suit.  Need to make sure tomorrow is been counted down and not staying at 9 to 10 days range. 

That one's faulty, it shows snow here. 

Fascinating, I never would have guessed that. Thanks for the explanation 👍

Or alternatively just keep on endlessly chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqV22NbR5Wc

Will the ECM follow GEM at t96-120?

Edit - something to distract you while you wait:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3iC3SgsZO0

This set up is reminding me of some of the winters in the 1980s. Back in the 70s and 80s there seemed to be a lot more of these cold v mild battlegrounds over the UK in the winter months. These would give snow to rain events quite frequently in the south with big snowfalls in the midlands and the north. Occasionally the cold air would win out and give us a load of snow down south too.

In those days we didn't have lots of different weather models to pore over (no sexist jokes please!).  We used to just rely on the BBC and newspaper forecasts. And of course Ceefax. Am I looking through frosty spectacles?